20 Lost Ln · Oswayo, PA 16915

$88,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 790 sqft · SingleFamily · 53 Days on market

Built 1971 Fair condition 2.51 ac lot $111/sqft · 74% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.6/10.0
• DSCR +5.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +1.9/10.0

Listing remarks

This is an ideal vacation get away with access directly to ATV/recreational trails and roads. High speed internet is available through Tri-Co elec. Natural gas heat. Located in a small quiet town. Perfect for that first time vacation home owners . Needs a little TLC. The sq footage is approx buyer can verify.

Key facts

• High speed internet
• Natural gas heat
• Small quiet town

Tags

• HIGH SPEED INTERNET
• NATURAL GAS HEAT
• SMALL QUIET TOWN

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Private well water
• Home design: Single-family residence; Two stories
• Construction: Wood siding exterior; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Metal roof; Lot of about 2.51 acres

Interior

• Bathrooms: One full bathroom; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Natural gas heating
• Interior features: Gas water heater; Seven total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $88k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $71 ($852/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $86k (2.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $85k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,545 in PA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: crime C-, health & safety D, amenities F.
• Oswayo Valley SD (rural): math 64% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #146 of 658 in PA (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Oswayo Valley El Sch (math 62% / reading 77%, grade A-, #151 of 1,518 statewide, top 12%, 162 students, 84% FRL); Oswayo Valley Ms (math 37% / reading 52%, grade D, #194 of 512 statewide, top 39%, 83 students, 58% FRL); Oswayo Valley Hs (math 75%, 96 students, 36% FRL) — zoned schools average 59% FRL vs 43% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 52 active listings in the ZIP; 24 units permitted in Potter County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $608 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Potter County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 53 days — a 3% lower offer ($85k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $85,360 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 53 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.46%
• DSCR: 1.15
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $50,717
• List price: $88,000
• Delta: 73.51%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
252 School St	0.52mi	2/1.0	750 (-5%)	11mo	$60,000	$80	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.61×
• Total profit: $-9,723
• Equity at exit: $13,121

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.89×
• Total profit: $-2,590
• Equity at exit: $7,609

Cash invested: $24,640 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 16915

• Home prices YoY: -4.0%
• Active inventory: 52
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $860 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$461
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$110 /mo · $1,320/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$181
• Net cashflow: $71

Break-even live

Break-even rent $770

Max offer price $88,000

Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $132	-5% $101	+0% $71	+5% $41	+10% $10
Rent	-10% $3	-5% $37	+0% $71	+5% $105	+10% $139
Rate	-1.0pp $115	-0.5pp $93	base $71	+0.5pp $48	+1.0pp $25

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,000
• Closing costs: $2,640
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $88,000 Active 53 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $88,000 Active 52 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $88,000 Active 50 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $88,000 Active 49 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $88,000 Active 48 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $88,000 Active 47 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $88,000 Active 45 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $88,000 Active 44 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $88,000 Active 41 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $88,000 Active 40 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $88,000 Active 39 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $88,000 Active 38 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $88,000 Active 35 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $88,000 Active 34 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $88,000 Active 33 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $88,000 Active 32 DOM
17. 2026-04-28
    listed $88,000 Active 310-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥88°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,317
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,929
• − Property taxes: −$1,320
• − Insurance: −$440
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$825
• − Management: −$825
• − Depreciation: −$2,560
• Taxable loss: −$583
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$140
• After-tax cash flow: $992/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This property requires significant repairs and maintenance to improve its condition and increase its value. The roof, exterior siding, flooring, interior walls, HVAC system, landscaping, and fencing all need attention. Painting, repainting, and revising these areas will improve the property's curb appeal and increase its value.

Repairs flagged

• Major roof — Visible damage and potential leaks in the independent satellite image.
• Major exterior siding — Peeling paint and potential rot in the independent satellite image.
• Major flooring — Carpeted flooring in the listing photo may need replacement.
• Major interior walls — Paint peeling and discoloration in the listing photo.
• Major landscaping — Overgrown grass and lack of landscaping in the listing photo.
• Major HVAC condensers — No visible systems in the listing photos, but the independent satellite image shows HVAC condensers which may need maintenance or replacement.
• Major fencing — No fencing visible in the listing photo, and the independent satellite image shows a lack of fencing around the property.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting and repainting the exterior siding — Painting the exterior siding will improve the curb appeal and increase the property's value.
• Both Replacing the carpeted flooring with hardwood or tile — Replacing the carpeted flooring with hardwood or tile will improve the interior aesthetics and increase the property's value.
• Both Painting the interior walls — Painting the interior walls will improve the appearance and increase the property's value.
• Both Landscaping and adding fencing — Landscaping and adding fencing will improve the curb appeal and increase the property's value.
• Both Revising the HVAC system — Revising the HVAC system will improve the comfort and energy efficiency of the property and increase the property's value.
• Both Revising the roof — Revising the roof will address the potential leaks and improve the property's value.
• Both Revising the exterior siding — Revising the exterior siding will address the potential rot and improve the property's value.
• Both Revising the flooring — Revising the flooring will address the potential wear and tear and improve the property's value.
• Both Revising the interior walls — Revising the interior walls will address the potential discoloration and improve the property's value.
• Both Revising the landscaping — Revising the landscaping will address the overgrown grass and improve the property's value.
• Both Revising the fencing — Revising the fencing will address the lack of fencing and improve the property's value.
• Both Revising the HVAC condensers — Revising the HVAC condensers will address the potential maintenance issues and improve the property's value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
roof · Visible damage and potential leaks in the independent satellite image.	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior siding · Peeling paint and potential rot in the independent satellite image.	Major	$15,000–50,000
flooring · Carpeted flooring in the listing photo may need replacement.	Major	$15,000–50,000
interior walls · Paint peeling and discoloration in the listing photo.	Major	$15,000–50,000
landscaping · Overgrown grass and lack of landscaping in the listing photo.	Major	$15,000–50,000
HVAC condensers · No visible systems in the listing photos, but the independent satellite image shows HVAC condensers which may need maintenance or replacement.	Major	$15,000–50,000
fencing · No fencing visible in the listing photo, and the independent satellite image shows a lack of fencing around the property.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 7 items		$105,000–350,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting and repainting the exterior siding — Painting the exterior siding will improve the curb appeal and increase the property's value. ↑
• Both Replacing the carpeted flooring with hardwood or tile — Replacing the carpeted flooring with hardwood or tile will improve the interior aesthetics and increase the property's value. ↑
• Both Painting the interior walls — Painting the interior walls will improve the appearance and increase the property's value. ↑
• Both Landscaping and adding fencing — Landscaping and adding fencing will improve the curb appeal and increase the property's value. ↑
• Both Revising the HVAC system — Revising the HVAC system will improve the comfort and energy efficiency of the property and increase the property's value. ↑
• Both Revising the roof — Revising the roof will address the potential leaks and improve the property's value. ↑
• Both Revising the exterior siding — Revising the exterior siding will address the potential rot and improve the property's value. ↑
• Both Revising the flooring — Revising the flooring will address the potential wear and tear and improve the property's value. ↑
• Both Revising the interior walls — Revising the interior walls will address the potential discoloration and improve the property's value. ↑
• Both Revising the landscaping — Revising the landscaping will address the overgrown grass and improve the property's value. ↑
• Both Revising the fencing — Revising the fencing will address the lack of fencing and improve the property's value. ↑
• Both Revising the HVAC condensers — Revising the HVAC condensers will address the potential maintenance issues and improve the property's value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Oswayo Valley SD
• NCES district ID: 4218210
• Math proficiency: 64% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 68% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $37,593
• Composite: 56.23/100
• National rank: #2509
• State rank: #146 of 658 in PA

Livability — Oswayo

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1545
• US rank: #20337

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment C Housing A Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Oswayo, PA
• Population (ZIP): 5,911

Population outlook (Potter County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 15,824 people
• By 2030: 15,023 · -5.1%
• By 2040: 13,290 · -16.0%
• By 2050: 11,572 · -26.9%
• By 2075: 8,144 · -48.5%
• By 2100: 5,102 · -67.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 2% Polish 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Potter

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+62.3) · D 18.4% · R 80.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.9pp toward R · 2008: -37.4pp · 2024: -62.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+62.3 2020: R+60.8 2016: R+63.6 2012: R+45.9 2008: R+37.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -6.26%
• Current HPI: 149.5192
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Listed $88,000 NMPA