9264 Manchester St · Spring Hill, FL 34606

$214,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,468 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1980 10,652 sqft lot Est $298k · 28% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under contract-accepting backup offers. PRICED BELOW MARKET VALUE FOR QUICK SALE - WELCOME TO 9264 MANCHESTER STREET IN SPRING HILL, FL. A charming Single Story Home FULL of Opportunity and Potential! Built in 1980, this Well Maintained Residence features 2 BEDROOMS, 2 BATHROOMS, and a spacious 2 CAR GARAGE, making it an excellent choice for First-Time Homebuyers, Investors, or ANYONE Looking to add their personal touch. The Home offers a Large Eat-in Kitchen with Plenty of Space for everyday Dining and Entertaining. A separate Dining Room provides EXCEPTIONAL FLEXIBILITY and can EASILY Serve as a Home Office, Craft Room, or even be CONVERTED INTO A THIRD BEDROOM to meet your growing needs

Key facts

• Large eat-in kitchen
• Separate dining room
• No hoa restrictions

Tags

• LARGE EAT-IN KITCHEN
• SEPARATE DINING ROOM
• OVERSIZED COVERED LANAI
• NEWER HVAC SYSTEM
• NO HOA RESTRICTIONS
• PRIME LOCATION

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: No lease restrictions; Property identified as residential single family; Universal property ID on file
• Financial info: Unfurnished; Homestead exemption indicated
• HOA & community: No association indicated

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Septic tank; Water available; Electricity available; Cable available
• Home design: Single family residence (Residential); One story; Facing southwest; Completed condition; PUD zoning
• Construction: Block construction; Shingle roof; Block foundation; Built area about 1,468 square feet
• Exterior features: Enclosed rear porch; Sliding doors; Private mailbox; Mature landscaping; Landscaped, level and oversized paved lot; Publicly maintained asphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning; Wood-burning stone fireplace
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; High ceilings; Open floor plan; Window treatments (blinds and drapes)
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Dryer hookup (electric); Laundry room inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $214k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $308 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $203k (5.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $203k (5.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 4.4% in Spring Hill — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#738 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D+, amenities F.
• Hernando (suburban): math 50% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #38 of 73 in FL (top 52%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 392 active listings in the ZIP; 26 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,505 units permitted in Hernando County in 2024 (318 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hernando County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $202,809 (5.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.02%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.17%
• DSCR: 1.27
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $298,004
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9259 Manchester St	0.04mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,408 (-4%)	4mo	$307,990	$219	83
4645 Commodore Ave	0.26mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,523 (+4%)	3mo	$270,000	$177	74
9331 Century Dr	0.43mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,408 (-4%)	1mo	$309,490	$220	67
5479 Mosquero Rd	0.43mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,494 (+2%)	6mo	$335,000	$224	67
5283 Kirkwood Ave	0.54mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,452 (-1%)	2mo	$295,000	$203	66
9371 Mallard St	0.29mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,356 (-8%)	3mo	$165,000	$122	66
8433 Beachwood Ct	0.55mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,567 (+7%)	1mo	$310,000	$198	57
4521 Bayridge Ct	0.67mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,545 (+5%)	3mo	$320,000	$207	52
4559 Crescent Rd	0.40mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,327 (-10%)	7mo	$235,000	$177	52
10107 Sunburst Ct	0.66mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,541 (+5%)	5mo	$300,000	$195	51
4573 Deltona Blvd	0.47mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,268 (-14%)	1mo	$240,000	$189	50
4399 Collins Rd	0.55mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,248 (-15%)	7mo	$260,000	$208	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.65×
• Total profit: $-21,067
• Equity at exit: $31,908

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.73×
• Total profit: $-16,366
• Equity at exit: $18,503

Cash invested: $59,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34606

• Home prices YoY: -24.7%
• Rents YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 392
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,028 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,122
• Tax from tax record: −$82 /mo · $990/yr
• Insurance: −$89
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$426
• Net cashflow: $308

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,638

Max offer price $214,000

Occupancy floor 80%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $429	-5% $369	+0% $308	+5% $248	+10% $187
Rent	-10% $148	-5% $228	+0% $308	+5% $388	+10% $469
Rate	-1.0pp $416	-0.5pp $363	base $308	+0.5pp $253	+1.0pp $196

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,500
• Closing costs: $6,420
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 26 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9211 Northcliffe Blvd Spring Hill, FL	3.0	2.0	1641	$3,200	$1.95	4d	1	0.08mi
9341 Northcliffe Blvd Spring Hill, FL	3.0	2.0	1444	$1,800	$1.25	0d	1	0.19mi
9156 Century Dr Spring Hill, FL	2.0	2.0	1170	$1,500	$1.28	6d	1	0.33mi
4514 Cynthia Ln Spring Hill, FL	2.0	2.0	1280	$1,550	$1.21	19d	1	0.40mi
9131 Swiss Rd Spring Hill, FL	3.0	2.0	1673	$2,000	$1.20	25d	1	0.45mi
4470 Cynthia Ln Spring Hill, FL	2.0	1.0	1016	$1,400	$1.38	21d	1	0.47mi
5100 Lydia Ct Spring Hill, FL	3.0	2.0	1826	$1,925	$1.05	25d	1	0.52mi
5451 Moongate Rd Spring Hill, FL	3.0	2.0	1262	$1,790	$1.42	25d	1	0.52mi
4335 Pallas Ave Spring Hill, FL	3.0	2.0	1248	$1,685	$1.35	25d	1	0.61mi
9499 Hayes St Spring Hill, FL	3.0	3.0	1280	$1,695	$1.32	23d	1	0.63mi
4628 Bayridge Ct Spring Hill, FL	3.0	2.0	1756	$1,995	$1.14	5d	1	0.68mi
8513 Beach Rd Spring Hill, FL	3.0	2.0	1378	$1,990	$1.44	19d	1	0.83mi
8397 Coral St Spring Hill, FL	3.0	2.0	1202	$1,689	$1.41	3d	1	0.91mi
8316 Nevada St Spring Hill, FL	2.0	1.0	1722	$2,100	$1.22	25d	1	1.02mi
3933 Antigua Way Spring Hill, FL	3.0–5.0	2.0–3.0	1975	$2,109	$1.07	6d	1	1.14mi
4353 Azora Rd Spring Hill, FL	2.0	2.0	979	$1,650	$1.69	25d	1	1.16mi
4289 Azora Rd Spring Hill, FL	3.0	2.0	1293	$1,700	$1.31	21d	1	1.21mi
4289 Azora Rd Unit 4289 Spring Hill, FL	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,500	$1.15	19d	1	1.21mi
4283 Azora Rd Spring Hill, FL	3.0	2.0	1110	$1,600	$1.44	25d	1	1.22mi
2459 Landover Blvd Spring Hill, FL	3.0	2.0	1139	$1,900	$1.67	23d	1	1.24mi
2634 Landover Blvd Spring Hill, FL	2.0	2.0	1021	$1,250	$1.22	19d	1	1.32mi
10449 Mayflower Rd Spring Hill, FL	3.0	2.0	1502	$1,849	$1.23	21d	1	1.42mi
4208 Jason Rd Spring Hill, FL	2.0	2.0	1038	$1,500	$1.45	25d	1	1.44mi
10436 Keystone St Spring Hill, FL	2.0	2.0	1289	$1,841	$1.43	3d	1	1.45mi
9483 Bayside Ct Spring Hill, FL	3.0	2.0	1788	$1,911	$1.07	6d	1	1.48mi
4224 Portillo Rd Spring Hill, FL	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,462	$1.33	0d	2	1.50mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-15
   statusdays on market $214,000 Pending 2 DOM
2. 2026-06-13
   remarks 699-char remark
3. 2026-06-13
   listed $214,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $990 · $82/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,776 · $148/mo
• Expected delta: +$787/yr (+$66/mo · 79.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,337
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,987
• − Property taxes: −$990
• − Insurance: −$1,070
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,947
• − Management: −$1,947
• − Depreciation: −$6,225
• Taxable income: $171
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$41
• After-tax cash flow: $3,659/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hernando
• NCES district ID: 1200810
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $41,985
• Composite: 42.03/100
• National rank: #3329
• State rank: #38 of 73 in FL

Livability — Spring Hill

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #738
• US rank: #15937

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Spring Hill, FL
• County: Hernando County · 169,677 people
• City population: 83,915
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 28,668
• Household income: $57,337
• Rent vs Own: 23.2% rent · 76.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 733.0

Population outlook (Hernando County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 189,218 people
• By 2030: 194,367 · +2.7%
• By 2040: 203,398 · +7.5%
• By 2050: 209,589 · +10.8%
• By 2075: 218,452 · +15.4%
• By 2100: 205,923 · +8.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 13% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 10% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 11% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hernando

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.0) · D 31.1% · R 68.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -33.5pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -37.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.0 2020: R+30.2 2016: R+29.0 2012: R+8.5 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -98.11%
• Current HPI: 298.5201
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.89%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Listed $214,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+6.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $990 · +2.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.