387 Harlow Ln · The Villages, FL 32163

$495,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,933 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 30 Days on market

Built 2015 5,724 sqft lot Est $534k · 7% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +10.7/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +6.8/30.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.1/10.0
• DSCR +1.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This Prime property is a beautifully maintained Sycamore model | 3 Bedroom |2 Bath | 2 car garage with negotiable Furniture package in the desirable Village of LaBelle in The Villages. Built in 2015, this move-in-ready home offers 1,933 square feet of heated living space with an open-concept floor plan designed for both comfort and entertaining. The home is enhanced by great out door living and curb appeal with a painted drive-way and well maintained lush landscaping and a generous porch for relaxing and enjoyment. Step inside to an open concept foyer that flows seamlessly into the living and dining area for both living and entertaining guest. The kitchen is centrally located and designed

Key facts

• Ample cabinetry
• Painted drive-way
• Open concept foyer

Tags

• PAINTED DRIVE-WAY
• LUSH LANDSCAPING
• GENEROUS PORCH
• OPEN CONCEPT FOYER
• AMPLE CABINETRY
• GRANITE COUNTERTOP SPACE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Home warranty included (yes); CDD present; Not in a development; Furnished: negotiable
• HOA & community: Association recreation owned; Clubhouse; Community mailbox; Deed restrictions; Dog park; Golf carts allowed; Golf; Handicap modified access; Park; Playground; Pool; Racquetball; Tennis courts; Wheelchair access; Senior community; Pets allowed with number and size limits

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity available and connected; Cable available; Phone available; Irrigation with reclaimed water (community)
• Home design: Single family residence; Single-story (one level); East-facing
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Completed condition; Built as residential
• Exterior features: Covered front porch; Patio; Screened porch; Exterior lighting; Sliding doors; Mature landscaping with trees; Concrete road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in oven; Dishwasher; Disposal; Exhaust fan; Microwave; Range; Range hood; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Tile flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning; Attic fan
• Interior features: Built-in features; Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; High ceilings; Kitchen and family room combo; Living room and dining room combo; Open floorplan; Solid surface counters; Stone counters; Split-bedroom layout; Walk-in closets; Window treatments
• Laundry & utility: Interior laundry room; Electric dryer hookup; Washer; Dryer; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $495k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-777 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $358k (27.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $300k (39.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $300k (39.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#431 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A, employment B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Sumter (rural): math 61% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #11 of 73 in FL (top 15%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Wildwood Elementary School (math 49% / reading 52%, grade D+, #1,055 of 2,144 statewide, top 50%, 940 students, 76% FRL); South Sumter Middle School (math 55% / reading 54%, grade B-, #183 of 571 statewide, top 34%, 897 students, 61% FRL); Wildwood Middle/ High School (math 29% / reading 41%, grade F, #379 of 667 statewide, top 58%, 843 students, 63% FRL) — zoned schools average 67% FRL vs 51% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 47% at this address vs 61% district-wide (-14 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Sumter average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 269 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,961 units permitted in Sumter County in 2024 (248 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($97k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $53k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $50k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Sumter County population projected at +45% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$85k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($488k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $300,472 (39.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.61% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.41%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.73%
• DSCR: 0.70
• GRM: 13.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $533,508
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3589 Dragon Pl	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,994 (+3%)	9mo	$505,000	$253	83
3556 Mistletoe Ct	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,913 (-1%)	3mo	$610,000	$319	78
3343 Rabbit Run Path	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,976 (+2%)	2mo	$817,000	$413	75
428 Pomegranate Path	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,827 (-6%)	8mo	$459,000	$251	69
3433 Nestlebranch Ave	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,957 (+1%)	9mo	$540,000	$276	66
595 Yarborough Way	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,965 (+2%)	2mo	$549,000	$279	64
3436 Countryside Path	0.71mi	3/2.0	2,013 (+4%)	0mo	$630,000	$313	60
3349 Countryside Path	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,855 (-4%)	4mo	$360,000	$194	56
3486 Rabbit Run Path	0.59mi	3/3.0	2,016 (+4%)	8mo	$510,000	$253	55
3233 Belcherry Loop	0.68mi	3/2.0	2,005 (+4%)	12mo	$465,000	$232	52
557 Harlow Ln	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,654 (-14%)	13mo	$405,000	$245	51
3462 Allison Pl	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,654 (-14%)	14mo	$474,900	$287	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.59×
• Total profit: $219,971
• Equity at exit: $445,935

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.9%
• Equity multiple: 5.95×
• Total profit: $686,464
• Equity at exit: $961,676

Cash invested: $138,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32163

• Home prices YoY: 9.8%
• Active inventory: 269
• Price-to-rent: 13.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,005 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,596
• Tax from tax record: −$349 /mo · $4,186/yr
• Insurance: −$206
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$631
• Net cashflow: $-777

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,988

Max offer price $357,709

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-497	-5% $-637	+0% $-777	+5% $-917	+10% $-1,057
Rent	-10% $-1,015	-5% $-896	+0% $-777	+5% $-658	+10% $-540
Rate	-1.0pp $-528	-0.5pp $-651	base $-777	+0.5pp $-905	+1.0pp $-1,036

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $123,750
• Closing costs: $14,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3225 Wise Way The Villages, FL	3.0	2.0	1652	$2,650	$1.60	26d	1	0.48mi
1069 Becker Ave The Villages, FL	3.0	2.0	1656	$5,000	$3.02	26d	1	1.16mi
3530 E Harbor Dr Fruitland Park, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1061	$2,014	$1.90	0d	36	1.19mi
798 Journey Ln The Villages, FL	3.0	2.0	1551	$2,300	$1.48	23d	1	1.22mi
3068 Islawild Way The Villages, FL	3.0	2.0	1542	$2,200	$1.43	23d	1	1.26mi
32905 Timberwood Dr Leesburg, FL	3.0	2.0	2071	$3,000	$1.45	26d	1	1.35mi
2875 Rain Lily Loop The Villages, FL	3.0	2.0	1965	$4,490	$2.28	23d	1	1.42mi
3314 Abana Path Unit 1525266P The Villages, FL	3.0	2.0	1571	$1,770	$1.13	23d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $495,000 Active 30 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $495,000 Active 28 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $495,000 Active 27 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $495,000 Active 26 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $495,000 Active 25 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $495,000 Active 24 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $495,000 Active 22 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $495,000 Active 21 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $495,000 Active 19 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $495,000 Active 18 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $495,000 Active 17 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $495,000 Active 16 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $495,000 Active 11 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $495,000 Active 10 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $495,000 Active 9 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $495,000 Active 8 DOM
17. 2026-05-22
    listed $495,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,186 · $349/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,186 · $349/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,057
• − Mortgage interest: −$27,728
• − Property taxes: −$4,186
• − Insurance: −$2,475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,885
• − Management: −$2,885
• − Depreciation: −$14,400
• Taxable loss: −$18,501
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,440
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,886/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sumter
• NCES district ID: 1201800
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,240
• Composite: 51.74/100
• National rank: #1682
• State rank: #11 of 73 in FL

Livability — The Villages

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #431
• US rank: #7363

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: The Villages, FL
• County: Sumter County · 110,591 people
• City population: 83,973
• Metro: The Villages, FL
• Population (ZIP): 28,549
• Household income: $96,775
• Rent vs Own: 5.7% rent · 94.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 307.0

Population outlook (Sumter County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 161,172 people
• By 2030: 180,083 · +11.7%
• By 2040: 209,892 · +30.2%
• By 2050: 234,186 · +45.3%
• By 2075: 284,602 · +76.6%
• By 2100: 317,039 · +96.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Lithuanian 3% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Vietnamese 1% Other Indo-European 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Sumter

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.6) · D 30.9% · R 68.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -27.0pp · 2024: -37.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.6 2020: R+36.1 2016: R+39.2 2012: R+34.9 2008: R+27.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 20.47%
• Current HPI: 229.0075
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: The Villages, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Listed $495,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+6.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,186 · +2.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.