4021 Bell St · Niagara Falls, NY 14305

$104,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,578 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 129 Days on market

Built 1920 3,900 sqft lot $66/sqft · 52% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Adorable rented, single family home with some updates. Newer vinyl flooring. Newer furnace and hot water tank. 3 Bedrooms and a full bath upstairs. The first floor has a master bedroom that was converted from a living room. Lots of space. Full basement. Deck with a partially fenced in yard.

Key facts

• Hot water tank
• Vinyl flooring
• Full basement

Tags

• VINYL FLOORING
• FURNACE
• HOT WATER TANK
• MASTER BEDROOM
• FULL BASEMENT
• DECK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $105k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $409 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $105k).
• Recommended offer: $92k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.0% vs local median 7.7% in Niagara Falls — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#956 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Niagara Falls City School District (urban): math 26% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #578 of 590 in NY (top 98%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 142 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 167 units permitted in Niagara County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($51k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $725 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Niagara County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $29k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 129 days — a 12% lower offer ($92k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 15y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.1% of price; built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $92,312 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 129 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.65% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.70%
• DSCR: 1.74
• GRM: 5.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $218,034
• List price: $104,900
• Delta: -51.89%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3915 Deveaux St	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,460 (-8%)	0mo	$120,000	$82	82
3823 Macklem Ave	0.24mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,566 (-1%)	2mo	$272,000	$174	78
1315 Maple Ave	0.03mi	3/1.0	1,412 (-10%)	2mo	$158,000	$112	76
4011 Bell St	0.02mi	3/2.0	1,350 (-14%)	4mo	$150,000	$111	72
1314 Norwood Ave	0.28mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,628 (+3%)	4mo	$140,000	$86	70
914 Vanderbilt Ave	0.25mi	3/1.5	1,707 (+8%)	7mo	$150,000	$88	67
4026 Barton St	0.49mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,645 (+4%)	5mo	$227,000	$138	59
4214 Washington St	0.33mi	3/1.5	1,773 (+12%)	5mo	$270,000	$152	58
3742 Mckoon Ave	0.27mi	3/1.5	1,364 (-14%)	6mo	$101,200	$74	58
3040 Madison Ave	0.39mi	3/2.5	1,793 (+14%)	0mo	$257,500	$144	56
2863 Macklem Ave	0.60mi	3/1.0	1,451 (-8%)	6mo	$109,999	$76	49
2830 Macklem Ave	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,372 (-13%)	0mo	$161,000	$117	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.31×
• Total profit: $9,201
• Equity at exit: $15,641

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.44×
• Total profit: $42,215
• Equity at exit: $9,070

Cash invested: $29,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14305

• Home prices YoY: -10.9%
• Active inventory: 142
• Price-to-rent: 5.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,728 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$550
• Tax from tax record: −$362 /mo · $4,350/yr
• Insurance: −$44
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$363
• Net cashflow: $409

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,210

Max offer price $104,900

Occupancy floor 71%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $26,225
• Closing costs: $3,147
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3025 Macklem Ave Niagara Falls, NY	4.0	1.5	1750	$2,200	$1.26	44d	1	0.41mi
1312 Ontario Ave Niagara Falls, NY	2.0	1.0	1956	$1,200	$0.61	44d	1	1.05mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $104,900 Active 129 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $104,900 Active 128 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $104,900 Active 127 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $104,900 Active 126 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $104,900 Active 124 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $104,900 Active 123 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $104,900 Active 121 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $104,900 Active 120 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   pricedays on market $104,900 Active 119 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $109,900 Active 118 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $109,900 Active 114 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $109,900 Active 113 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $109,900 Active 112 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $109,900 Active 111 DOM
15. 2026-03-23
    price $109,900 291-char remark

    Show marketing remark (291 chars)

    Adorable rented, single family home with some updates. Newer vinyl flooring. Newer furnace and hot water tank. 3 Bedrooms and a full bath upstairs. The first floor has a master bedroom that was converted from a living room. Lots of space. Full basement. Deck with a partially fenced in yard.

16. 2026-02-09
    listed $114,900 Active 291-char remark

    Show marketing remark (291 chars)

    Adorable rented, single family home with some updates. Newer vinyl flooring. Newer furnace and hot water tank. 3 Bedrooms and a full bath upstairs. The first floor has a master bedroom that was converted from a living room. Lots of space. Full basement. Deck with a partially fenced in yard.

17. 2024-03-20
    soldstatus $520,000
18. 2012-05-17
    soldstatus $24,000
19. 2012-05-11
    soldstatus $23,000 586-char remark

    Show marketing remark (586 chars)

    Be a homeowner today. Owner will consider all offers & all terms. Rocking chair front porch leads in to this Deveaux home. Over 1500 Sq' 1st floor offers great living space. Large addition off back of home leads to a deck. 1st floor bath and laundry, 3 br and a 2nd f/b upstairs Some replacement windows. This property the city will finance up to 100% of the cost of property improvements at 0% with no monthly payments, 50% of the loan is forgiven after 3 years. Balance due only when sold again. 203K is a great option for financing. Owner will consider all offers and all terms

20. 2011-09-12
    listed $35,000 586-char remark

    Show marketing remark (586 chars)

    Be a homeowner today. Owner will consider all offers & all terms. Rocking chair front porch leads in to this Deveaux home. Over 1500 Sq' 1st floor offers great living space. Large addition off back of home leads to a deck. 1st floor bath and laundry, 3 br and a 2nd f/b upstairs Some replacement windows. This property the city will finance up to 100% of the cost of property improvements at 0% with no monthly payments, 50% of the loan is forgiven after 3 years. Balance due only when sold again. 203K is a great option for financing. Owner will consider all offers and all terms

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,350 · $362/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,350 · $362/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,734
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,876
• − Property taxes: −$4,350
• − Insurance: −$524
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,659
• − Management: −$1,659
• − Depreciation: −$3,052
• Taxable income: $3,615
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$868
• After-tax cash flow: $4,037/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Niagara Falls City School District
• NCES district ID: 3620820
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $32,488
• Composite: 24.5/100
• National rank: #7655
• State rank: #578 of 590 in NY

Livability — Niagara Falls

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #956
• US rank: #18749

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Niagara Falls, NY
• County: Niagara County · 157,377 people
• City population: 62,983
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 16,696
• Household income: $51,004
• Rent vs Own: 38.4% rent · 61.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1095.0

Population outlook (Niagara County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 204,149 people
• By 2030: 197,900 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 182,239 · -10.7%
• By 2050: 165,198 · -19.1%
• By 2075: 129,416 · -36.6%
• By 2100: 96,222 · -52.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Black 24% Two or more races 13% Hispanic / Latino 8% Asian 1% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Niagara

• 2024 margin: R (+14.9) · D 42.5% · R 57.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.9pp toward R · 2008: 1.0pp · 2024: -14.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.9 2020: R+9.7 2016: R+19.0 2012: D+0.6 2008: D+1.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -43.08%
• Current HPI: 350.8741
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+214.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-23 Price Changed $109,900 WNYREIS
• 2026-02-09 Listed $114,900 WNYREIS
• 2024-03-20 Sold (Public Records) $520,000 Public Records
• 2012-05-17 Sold (Public Records) $24,000 Public Records
• 2012-05-11 Sold (MLS) $23,000 WNYREIS
• 2011-09-12 Listed $35,000 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+6.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,350 · +18.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.