3509 Michael Clay Dr · Jackson, MS 39213

$84,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,213 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 10 Days on market

Built 1970 0.28 ac lot Est $107k · 20% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.4/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.1/10.0

Listing remarks

Charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath ranch-style home offering comfortable single-level living in an established Jackson neighborhood. Situated on approximately 0.28 acres, this property features a spacious yard, functional layout, and convenient access to schools, shopping, dining, and major roadways.

Key facts

• Spacious yard
• Single-level living
• 0.28 acre lot

Tags

• SINGLE-LEVEL LIVING
• SPACIOUS YARD
• CONVENIENT ACCESS TO SCHOOLS
• CONVENIENT ACCESS TO SHOPPING
• CONVENIENT ACCESS TO DINING

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community features include park and street lights

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (1 covered space); Driveway with direct access; Concrete surfaces; Total 2 parking spaces
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Cable connected
• Home design: Single-family house; One level
• Construction: Brick veneer and siding exterior; Asphalt shingle/composition roof; Conventional and pillar/post/pier foundation; Built (year per public records)
• Exterior features: Front porch; Patio; Private yard; Outdoor lighting; Rain gutters; Level, interior city lot with few trees; Subdivided lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (main level); Bedroom 2 (main level); Bedroom 3 (main level)
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl; Combination flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas); Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; High-speed internet available; Primary bedroom on main level; Storage; Deadbolt locks; Blinds, screens and window coverings; Crawl space basement
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup inside; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $305 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $85k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#66 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, employment F, health & safety F.
• Jackson Public School District (urban): math 9% / reading 18% proficiency, ranked #112 of 130 in MS (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 88% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Johnson Elementary School (math 2% / reading 12%, grade F, #337 of 375 statewide, top 94%, 290 students, 100% FRL); Blackburn Middle School (math 9% / reading 11%, grade F, #152 of 179 statewide, top 88%, 614 students, 100% FRL); Provine High School (math 4% / reading 15%, grade F, #179 of 197 statewide, top 92%, 774 students, 100% FRL).
• Market conditions: 81 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 167 units permitted in Hinds County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,133/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($30k/yr) (locally 1138% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($587 loan paydown + $8k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Hinds County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $84,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.34% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.60%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.37%
• DSCR: 1.68
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $106,744
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3537 Rita Dr	0.14mi	3/1.5	1,118 (-8%)	11mo	$98,900	$88	69
2022 Chandler Dr	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,324 (+9%)	12mo	$120,000	$91	64
1942 Marshall Pl	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,055 (-13%)	0mo	$49,000	$46	60
3482 Carley Dr	0.03mi	3/1.5	1,076 (-11%)	22mo	$115,000	$107	60
4326 Sunset Dr	0.61mi	3/1.5	1,100 (-9%)	3mo	$19,500	$18	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 35.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.76×
• Total profit: $65,653
• Equity at exit: $76,485

10-year hold

• IRR: 30.7%
• Equity multiple: 8.49×
• Total profit: $178,124
• Equity at exit: $164,942

Cash invested: $23,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39213

• Home prices YoY: 7.0%
• Active inventory: 81
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,133 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$445
• Tax from tax record: −$110 /mo · $1,324/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$238
• Net cashflow: $305

Break-even live

Break-even rent $748

Max offer price $84,900

Occupancy floor 68%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $353	-5% $329	+0% $305	+5% $280	+10% $256
Rent	-10% $215	-5% $260	+0% $305	+5% $349	+10% $394
Rate	-1.0pp $347	-0.5pp $326	base $305	+0.5pp $283	+1.0pp $260

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,225
• Closing costs: $2,547
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3625 Liberty St Jackson, MS	3.0	1.0	1056	$1,190	$1.13	15d	1	1.06mi
2475 Greenfield Ave Jackson, MS	2.0	1.5	1000	$800	$0.80	45d	1	1.09mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-15
   statusdays on market $84,900 Pending 10 DOM
2. 2026-06-14
   days on market $84,900 Active 9 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $84,900 Active 8 DOM
4. 2026-06-10
   days on market $84,900 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $84,900 Active 5 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $84,900 Active 4 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $84,900 Active 3 DOM
8. 2026-06-05
   remarks 293-char remark
9. 2026-06-05
   listed $84,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,324 · $110/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,324 · $110/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,602
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,756
• − Property taxes: −$1,324
• − Insurance: −$424
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,088
• − Management: −$1,088
• − Depreciation: −$2,470
• Taxable income: $2,451
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$588
• After-tax cash flow: $3,066/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jackson Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2802190
• Math proficiency: 9% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 18% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $33,234
• Composite: 10.89/100
• National rank: #9755
• State rank: #112 of 130 in MS

Livability — Jackson

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #66
• US rank: #9695

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jackson, MS
• County: Hinds County · 167,040 people
• City population: 140,204
• Metro: Jackson, MS
• Population (ZIP): 18,691
• Household income: $29,541
• Rent vs Own: 52.7% rent · 47.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1138.0

Population outlook (Hinds County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 242,528 people
• By 2030: 241,113 · -0.6%
• By 2040: 235,557 · -2.9%
• By 2050: 226,946 · -6.4%
• By 2075: 199,995 · -17.5%
• By 2100: 164,165 · -32.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 95% White 2% Two or more races 1% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Foreign-born: 0% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Hinds

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+46.1) · D 72.4% · R 26.3% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: 39.0pp · 2024: 46.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+46.1 2020: D+48.3 2016: D+43.7 2012: D+45.1 2008: D+39.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 21.42%
• Current HPI: 329.1844
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Jackson, MS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Listed $84,900 MLSU
• 2021-02-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1992-07-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1976-04-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+1.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,324 · +2.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.