5730 Mockingbird · San Patricio, TX 78368

$165,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,681 sqft · Manufactured public records · 180 Days on market

Built 1995 2.57 ac lot $98/sqft · 53% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.2/10.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Enjoy peaceful country living on 2.57 acres of land surrounded by beautiful scenery, while still offering easy access to town for everyday convenience. The land is dotted with variety of mature trees, including mesquite and oak. Outdoors you'll find a workshop building with electricity plus covered storage area. The double -wide mobile home features three bedrooms and two bathrooms with a spacious living area with a fireplace. This property is perfect for room to grow , enjoy the outdoors and still stay close to town.

Key facts

• Workshop building
• Country living
• Spacious living area

Tags

• COUNTRY LIVING
• MATURE TREES
• WORKSHOP BUILDING
• COVERED STORAGE AREA
• SPACIOUS LIVING AREA
• FIREPLACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $66 ($793/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $142k (13.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $142k (13.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,130 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A, employment B; Watch: health & safety C-, crime D, schools F.
• Mathis ISD (town): math 29% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #528 of 826 in TX (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 78% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 110 active listings in the ZIP; 344 units permitted in San Patricio County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $7k appreciation (4.4% local appreciation)).
• San Patricio County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (4.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $46k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 180 days — a 12% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 26y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $13k; list at $165k implies a 1179% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $142,193 (13.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 180 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.77%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.72%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $348,753
• List price: $165,000
• Delta: -52.69%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

4.39% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.79×
• Total profit: $36,511
• Equity at exit: $87,442

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.37×
• Total profit: $109,601
• Equity at exit: $146,125

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78368

• Home prices YoY: 4.7%
• Active inventory: 110
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,422 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$123 /mo · $1,479/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$299
• Net cashflow: $66

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,338

Max offer price $165,000

Occupancy floor 90%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 36 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $165,000 Active 180 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $165,000 Active 179 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $165,000 Active 178 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $165,000 Active 177 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $165,000 Active 176 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $165,000 Active 175 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $165,000 Active 174 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $165,000 Active 171 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $165,000 Active 170 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $165,000 Active 169 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $165,000 Active 167 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $165,000 Active 165 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $165,000 Active 164 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $165,000 Active 163 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $165,000 Active 162 DOM
16. 2026-04-06
    price $169,900 523-char remark

    Show marketing remark (523 chars)

    Enjoy peaceful country living on 2.57 acres of land surrounded by beautiful scenery, while still offering easy access to town for everyday convenience. The land is dotted with variety of mature trees, including mesquite and oak. Outdoors you'll find a workshop building with electricity plus covered storage area. The double -wide mobile home features three bedrooms and two bathrooms with a spacious living area with a fireplace. This property is perfect for room to grow , enjoy the outdoors and still stay close to town.

17. 2026-02-17
    price $175,000 523-char remark

    Show marketing remark (523 chars)

    Enjoy peaceful country living on 2.57 acres of land surrounded by beautiful scenery, while still offering easy access to town for everyday convenience. The land is dotted with variety of mature trees, including mesquite and oak. Outdoors you'll find a workshop building with electricity plus covered storage area. The double -wide mobile home features three bedrooms and two bathrooms with a spacious living area with a fireplace. This property is perfect for room to grow , enjoy the outdoors and still stay close to town.

18. 2026-01-20
    price $185,000 523-char remark

    Show marketing remark (523 chars)

    Enjoy peaceful country living on 2.57 acres of land surrounded by beautiful scenery, while still offering easy access to town for everyday convenience. The land is dotted with variety of mature trees, including mesquite and oak. Outdoors you'll find a workshop building with electricity plus covered storage area. The double -wide mobile home features three bedrooms and two bathrooms with a spacious living area with a fireplace. This property is perfect for room to grow , enjoy the outdoors and still stay close to town.

19. 2025-12-20
    listed $195,000 Active 523-char remark

    Show marketing remark (523 chars)

    Enjoy peaceful country living on 2.57 acres of land surrounded by beautiful scenery, while still offering easy access to town for everyday convenience. The land is dotted with variety of mature trees, including mesquite and oak. Outdoors you'll find a workshop building with electricity plus covered storage area. The double -wide mobile home features three bedrooms and two bathrooms with a spacious living area with a fireplace. This property is perfect for room to grow , enjoy the outdoors and still stay close to town.

20. 2025-03-19
    price $160,000
21. 2024-12-05
    listed $165,000 Active
22. 2022-08-30
    historical
23. 2022-08-29
    soldstatus Closed
24. 2022-08-29
    soldstatus
25. 2021-09-10
    status Pending
26. 2021-08-30
    historical Active Under Contract
27. 2021-08-20
    listed $159,900 Active
28. 2020-04-09
    historical
29. 2020-03-19
    status Active
30. 2020-03-14
    historical Active Under Contract
31. 2020-01-03
    listed $137,333 Active
32. 2006-04-07
    soldstatus
33. 2006-03-31
    soldstatus
34. 2005-09-16
    listed $79,000
35. 2000-10-14
    listed $79,000
36. 2000-03-08
    soldstatus $12,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,479 · $123/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,020 · $252/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,541/yr (+$128/mo · 104.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,063
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$1,479
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,365
• − Management: −$1,365
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable loss: −$2,013
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$483
• After-tax cash flow: $1,276/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mathis ISD
• NCES district ID: 4829400
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $36,954
• Composite: 29.47/100
• National rank: #6509
• State rank: #528 of 826 in TX

Livability — San Patricio

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1130
• US rank: #19974

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment B Housing A Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Patricio, TX
• Population (ZIP): 9,474

Population outlook (San Patricio County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 75,538 people
• By 2030: 79,575 · +5.3%
• By 2040: 87,670 · +16.1%
• By 2050: 96,107 · +27.2%
• By 2075: 117,984 · +56.2%
• By 2100: 130,010 · +72.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (61%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 61% White 33% Two or more races 32%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 55%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 60% English-only · Spanish 39%

Political lean MEDSL · San Patricio

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.4) · D 31.4% · R 67.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.8pp toward R · 2008: -16.6pp · 2024: -36.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.4 2020: R+29.1 2016: R+24.1 2012: R+20.6 2008: R+16.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.39%
• Current HPI: 98.6577
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+1217.1% since first listed

21 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-06 Price Changed $169,900 CBMLS
• 2026-02-17 Price Changed $175,000 CBMLS
• 2026-01-20 Price Changed $185,000 CBMLS
• 2025-12-20 Listed $195,000 CBMLS
• 2025-03-19 Price Changed $160,000 CBMLS
• 2024-12-05 Listed $165,000 CBMLS
• 2022-08-30 Delisted — CBMLS
• 2022-08-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-08-29 Sold (MLS) — CBMLS
• 2021-09-10 Pending — CBMLS
• 2021-08-30 Contingent — CBMLS
• 2021-08-20 Listed $159,900 CBMLS
• 2020-04-09 Delisted — CBMLS
• 2020-03-19 Relisted — CBMLS
• 2020-03-14 Contingent — CBMLS
• 2020-01-03 Listed $137,333 CBMLS
• 2006-04-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2006-03-31 Sold (MLS) — CBMLS
• 2005-09-16 Listed $79,000 CBMLS
• 2000-10-14 Listed $79,000 CBMLS
• 2000-03-08 Sold (Public Records) $12,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,479 · -15.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.