Vaquero Plan · Celina, TX 75009

$388,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,768 sqft · SingleFamily · 166 Days on market

Good condition 2-car garage

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Cash flow +3.3/30.0
• Rent growth +1.3/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Century Farms is a thoughtfully designed master-planned community offering space, style, and an exceptional North Texas lifestyle-zoned to highly acclaimed McKinney ISD schools. Ideal for growing households and those relocating for work, Century Farms blends small-town tranquility with easy access to major employment and entertainment corridors. Residents enjoy a seamless mix of natural beauty and modern convenience. The community features scenic ponds, a preserved nature area, and miles of walking and jogging trails, providing everyday opportunities to unwind outdoors.

Key facts

• Scenic ponds
• 2 garage spots
• Listed 165 days

Tags

• MASTER PLANNED COMMUNITY
• HIGHLY ACCLAIMED SCHOOLS
• SCENIC PONDS
• PRESERVED NATURE AREA
• WALKING AND JOGGING TRAILS
• RESORT STYLE AMENITY CENTER

🏗️ New construction. The $388,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $463,075.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $389k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-17k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $255k (34.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $223k (42.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $223k (42.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#450 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, schools A; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Mckinney ISD (suburban): math 54% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #72 of 826 in TX (top 9%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-4.6%/yr); 4240 active listings in the ZIP; 25 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 30d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 48% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 16% of the median local income ($168k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 166 days — a 12% lower offer ($342k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $222,912 (42.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 166 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 43% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.48% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.56%
• Cash-on-cash: -13.32%
• DSCR: 0.41
• GRM: 17.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $463,075
• List price: $388,990
• Delta: -16.00%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
228 Spruce Brook Dr	1.01mi	3/2.0	1,950 (+10%)	2mo	$544,900	$279	46
301 Snowbird Way	1.02mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,605 (-9%)	1mo	$404,990	$252	44
9904 Gentle Brook Dr	1.11mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,926 (+9%)	2mo	$508,920	$264	43
313 Cloverdale Ln	1.08mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,935 (+9%)	2mo	$500,000	$258	43
308 Snowbird Way	1.05mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,605 (-9%)	3mo	$399,990	$249	42
200 Bay Laurel Rd	1.00mi	3/2.0	2,110 (+19%)	1mo	$444,990	$211	40
120 Bay Laurel Rd	0.97mi	3/2.0	2,003 (+13%)	5mo	$529,305	$264	39
409 Snowbird Way	1.09mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,596 (-10%)	7mo	$363,410	$228	38
204 Bay Laurel	0.92mi	3/2.0	2,092 (+18%)	6mo	$499,999	$239	35
9725 Juneberry Ln	1.09mi	3/2.5	2,063 (+17%)	7mo	$499,990	$242	32
9908 Gentle Brook Dr	1.10mi	2/2.5 (-1)	2,063 (+17%)	3mo	$519,990	$252	31
221 Cloverdale Ln	1.04mi	2/2.5 (-1)	2,063 (+17%)	6mo	$489,990	$238	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -44.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.34×
• Total profit: $-173,200
• Equity at exit: $69,046

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: -1.27×
• Total profit: $-293,961
• Equity at exit: $40,038

Cash invested: $129,661 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 48 active · 2 under contract
• Months of supply: 144.0 mo (1%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $417,990 ($222/sqft)
• Median days on market: 125 d
• This list price: 25% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +18.2% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 75009

• Home prices YoY: -23.1%
• Rents YoY: -4.6%
• Active inventory: 4240
• Price-to-rent: 14.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,229 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,428
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$579 /mo · $6,946/yr
• Insurance: −$193
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$468
• Net cashflow: $-1,439

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,051

Max offer price $254,820

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,119	-5% $-1,279	+0% $-1,439	+5% $-1,599	+10% $-1,759
Rent	-10% $-1,615	-5% $-1,527	+0% $-1,439	+5% $-1,351	+10% $-1,263
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,206	-0.5pp $-1,321	base $-1,439	+0.5pp $-1,559	+1.0pp $-1,681

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $115,769
• Closing costs: $13,892
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 25 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1629 Cloud Cover Vw Celina, TX	4.0	3.5	2528	$2,700	$1.07	99d	1	1.16mi
1621 Cloud Cover Vw Celina, TX	4.0	2.5	2310	$2,446	$1.06	165d	1	1.17mi
730 Rain Barrel Pl Celina, TX	4.0	2.5	2281	$2,295	$1.01	10d	1	1.18mi
730 Rain Barrel Pl Celina, TX	4.0	2.5	2281	$2,295	$1.01	14d	1	1.18mi
1601 Cloud Cover Vw Celina, TX	3.0	2.5	2310	$2,300	$1.00	10d	1	1.19mi
1601 Cloud Cover Vw Celina, TX	3.0	2.5	2310	$2,300	$1.00	29d	1	1.19mi
1601 Cloud Cover Vw Celina, TX	4.0	2.5	2310	$2,450	$1.06	78d	1	1.19mi
1601 Cloud Cover Vw Celina, TX	4.0	2.5	2310	$2,400	$1.04	86d	1	1.19mi
721 Rain Barrel Pl Celina, TX	3.0	2.0	1662	$1,950	$1.17	10d	1	1.20mi
704 Rusty Spurs Pl Celina, TX	3.0	2.0	1750	$2,350	$1.34	10d	1	1.24mi
612 Rain Barrel Pl Celina, TX	4.0	2.5	2271	$2,150	$0.95	10d	1	1.27mi
621 Rusty Spurs Pl Celina, TX	3.0	2.0	1800	$1,950	$1.08	35d	1	1.28mi
108 Sleepy Willow Ln McKinney, TX	2.0	2.0	1485	$2,575	$1.73	1d	1	1.37mi
9236 Flowering Dogwood Ln McKinney, TX	4.0	2.0	1683	$2,600	$1.54	10d	1	1.38mi
1733 Barnwood Trce Celina, TX	4.0	2.0	1981	$2,175	$1.10	99d	1	1.39mi
3624 Bluebird Ln McKinney, TX	3.0	2.0	1262	$1,975	$1.56	100d	1	1.41mi
3624 Bluebird Ln McKinney, TX	3.0	2.0	1262	$1,975	$1.56	140d	1	1.41mi
9216 Flowering Dogwood Ln McKinney, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1840	$2,440	$1.33	0d	8	1.42mi
9204 Red Fox Trl McKinney, TX	3.0	2.0	1262	$1,890	$1.50	28d	1	1.45mi
9205 Red Fox Trl McKinney, TX	3.0	2.0	1407	$2,400	$1.71	6d	1	1.45mi
9208 Grackle Pl McKinney, TX	3.0	2.0	1411	$1,850	$1.31	3d	1	1.46mi
9201 Red Fox Trl McKinney, TX	3.0	2.0	1436	$1,890	$1.32	165d	1	1.46mi
9213 Grackle Pl McKinney, TX	3.0	2.0	1267	$1,999	$1.58	53d	1	1.47mi
9205 Grackle Pl McKinney, TX	3.0	2.0	1436	$1,799	$1.25	41d	1	1.48mi
436 Boot Strap Pl Celina, TX	4.0	2.5	2165	$2,150	$0.99	57d	1	1.49mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 3985 Olin Way, Celina TX 75009Status: Active
• Financial info: List price $388,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces2-car garage
• Home design: New construction plan named VaqueroInventory type: Plan

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Living area approximately 1768 (listed)

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $388,990 Active 166 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $388,990 Active 165 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $388,990 Active 164 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $388,990 Active 163 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $388,990 Active 162 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $388,990 Active 160 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $388,990 Active 159 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $388,990 Active 158 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $388,990 Active 157 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $388,990 Active 156 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $388,990 Active 155 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $388,990 Active 154 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $388,990 Active 153 DOM
14. 2026-10-25
    days on market $388,990 Active 152 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $388,990 Active 151 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $388,990 Active 150 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $388,990 Active 149 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $388,990 Active 148 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $388,990 Active 147 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $388,990 Active 146 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $388,990 Active 145 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $388,990 Active 144 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $388,990 Active 143 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $388,990 Active 142 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $388,990 Active 141 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $388,990 Active 140 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $388,990 Active 139 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $388,990 Active 138 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $388,990 Active 137 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $388,990 Active 136 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $388,990 Active 135 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $388,990 Active 134 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $388,990 Active 133 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $388,990 Active 132 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $388,990 Active 131 DOM
36. 2026-10-03
    days on market $388,990 Active 130 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $388,990 Active 129 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $388,990 Active 128 DOM
39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $388,990 Active 127 DOM
40. 2026-09-29
    days on market $388,990 Active 126 DOM
41. 2026-09-28
    days on market $388,990 Active 125 DOM
42. 2026-09-27
    days on market $388,990 Active 124 DOM
43. 2026-09-26
    days on market $388,990 Active 123 DOM
44. 2026-09-25
    days on market $388,990 Active 122 DOM
45. 2026-09-24
    days on market $388,990 Active 121 DOM
46. 2026-09-23
    days on market $388,990 Active 120 DOM
47. 2026-09-22
    days on market $388,990 Active 119 DOM
48. 2026-09-21
    days on market $388,990 Active 118 DOM
49. 2026-09-20
    days on market $388,990 Active 117 DOM
50. 2026-09-19
    days on market $388,990 Active 116 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,749
• − Mortgage interest: −$25,939
• − Property taxes: −$6,946
• − Insurance: −$2,315
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,140
• − Management: −$2,140
• − Depreciation: −$13,471
• Taxable loss: −$26,203
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$6,289
• After-tax cash flow: $-10,982/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 None rehab

This home is in good condition with no major repairs needed. It offers a good return on investment with updates that can significantly increase its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve the home's curb appeal and add value. ↑
• Rental HVAC maintenance — A well-maintained HVAC system ensures comfort and can attract tenants. ↑
• Resale Kitchen and bathroom updates — Updating these spaces can attract more buyers and increase the home's value. ↑
• Resale Flooring replacement — Replacing worn-out flooring can improve the home's appearance and increase its value. ↑
• Both Roof inspection — A thorough roof inspection can ensure the roof is in good condition and prevent future issues. If needed, repairs can be done at a lower cost than a full replacement. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 48/100

Zoned Schools

Middle Scott Morgan Johnson Middle C- TX #408/1,662 Nat'l #4,042/14,009

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mckinney ISD
• NCES district ID: 4829850
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $78,283
• Composite: 50.46/100
• National rank: #1862
• State rank: #72 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 68/100

Livability — Celina

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #450
• US rank: #9135

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Collin County · 1,210,074 people
• City population: 34,260
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,260
• Household income: $168,250
• Rent vs Own: 8.0% rent · 92.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 25% of renters

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Population outlook (Collin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,210,074 people
• By 2030: 1,358,201 · +12.2%
• By 2040: 1,654,061 · +36.7%
• By 2050: 1,937,359 · +60.1%
• By 2075: 2,567,039 · +112.1%
• By 2100: 2,952,048 · +144.0%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 11% Asian 11% Black 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 6% Chinese 3% Other Asian/Pacific 3%

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Political lean MEDSL · Collin

• 2024 margin: R (+11.1) · D 43.1% · R 54.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.4pp toward D · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.1 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.07%
• Current HPI: 276.6307
• Rent YoY: ▼ -4.62%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 3985 Olin Way, Celina TX 75009Status: Active
• Financial info: List price $388,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces2-car garage
• Home design: New construction plan named VaqueroInventory type: Plan

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Living area approximately 1768 (listed)