1208 Breezy Oak Dr · Josephine, TX 75173

$272,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,649 sqft · SingleFamily · 47 Days on market

Built 2026 7,405 sqft lot $166/sqft · at area comps Est $270k · at est. $46/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.0/15.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 1208 Breezy Oak, part of our Waverly Estates community in Josephine, TX. Experience the perfect combination of modern amenities and comfortable living with this thoughtfully designed Express Series home. The architecturally designed elevation, featuring divided light windows and a front-facing garage with decorative hardware, creates a striking curb appeal. A covered front porch leads to a raised panel fiberglass insulated front door, welcoming you inside. Upon entry, a spacious foyer seamlessly transitions into the open concept living areas. The kitchen, equipped with cabinets with hidden hinges, granite or quartz countertops, and stainless-steel appliances, offers both style and functionality. A built-in sink, dishwasher, and spacious pantry cater to everyday needs. The primary bedroom, a tranquil retreat, features an adjoining bathroom designed for convenience. An elongated vanity with a sink and non-framed mirror, along with a walk-in closet, provides ample space and comfort. This Express Series home is further enhanced by a user-friendly smart home system and an innovative tech package, offering modern convenience and seamless connectivity. The blend of thoughtful design and contemporary features makes it an ideal choice for modern living. Photos shown here may not depict the specified home and features. Contact us today for more details!

Key facts

• 7,405 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Builder listing; possession at closing/funding or upon completion
• Financial info: Financing accepted: Cash, Conventional, FHA, USDA, VA
• HOA & community: Mandatory association; Association fee $275 semi-annually; Association fee includes full use of facilities; HOA managed by AAM

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; Two garage spaces (approx. 20' wide x 20' deep, 10' height); Two covered parking spaces
• Security: Smoke detectors; Carbon monoxide detectors
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; Municipal utility district; Energy-efficient features including enhanced attic insulation, HVAC efficiency, insulation, efficient lighting, programmable thermostat, and efficient windows
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; New construction (incomplete)
• Construction: Brick exterior; Composition roof; Slab foundation; Year built: 2026 (new construction - incomplete)
• Exterior features: Wood fencing; Less than 0.5-acre lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Electric range; Microwave; Breakfast bar; Built-in cabinets; Water line to refrigerator; Granite countertops
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (first floor) with ensuite bath and walk-in closet; Three additional bedrooms (first floor), two of which are in a split-bedroom arrangement
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Open floorplan with decorative lighting; Eat-in kitchen with kitchen island and pantry; Granite counters; Cable TV available; High-speed internet available
• Laundry & utility: Utilities include city water and city sewer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $273k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-325 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $226k (17.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $204k (25.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $204k (25.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,076 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Community ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #479 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Leland E Edge Middle (math 25% / reading 35%, grade F, #1,056 of 1,662 statewide, top 65%, 931 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools average 53% FRL vs 36% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 421 active listings in the ZIP; 32 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $29k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $27k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$47k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 47 days — a 3% lower offer ($265k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $203,503 (25.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 47 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.86%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.10%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $270,200
• List price: $272,990
• Delta: 1.03%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
407 Saddle Blanket Dr	0.13mi	4/2.0	1,801 (+9%)	2mo	$273,990	$152	77
506 Saddle Blanket Dr	0.20mi	4/2.0	1,801 (+9%)	1mo	$290,990	$162	74
406 Saddle Blanket Dr	0.14mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,404 (-15%)	0mo	$251,010	$179	63
409 Saddle Blanket Dr	0.14mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,404 (-15%)	3mo	$270,990	$193	62
406 Shady Bank Way	0.50mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,712 (+4%)	6mo	$319,235	$186	60
208 Cultivator Ct	0.57mi	4/2.0	1,537 (-7%)	6mo	$239,900	$156	57
503 Silo Cir	0.74mi	4/2.0	1,732 (+5%)	2mo	$249,900	$144	55
909 Driftwood Ln	0.40mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,840 (+12%)	5mo	$384,891	$209	53
505 Plum Dr	0.55mi	4/2.0	1,891 (+15%)	3mo	$265,000	$140	48
511 Magnolia Dr	0.72mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,526 (-8%)	2mo	$219,900	$144	47
302 Wagon Wheel Dr	0.68mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,450 (-12%)	4mo	$254,000	$175	40
1319 Lowhill Dr	0.67mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,457 (-12%)	7mo	$238,000	$163	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.68×
• Total profit: $128,044
• Equity at exit: $245,931

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.8%
• Equity multiple: 6.15×
• Total profit: $393,457
• Equity at exit: $530,360

Cash invested: $76,437 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75173

• Home prices YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 421
• Price-to-rent: 11.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,035 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,432
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$341 /mo · $4,095/yr
• Insurance: −$114
• HOA: −$46
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$427
• Net cashflow: $-325

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,446

Max offer price $225,977

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-136	-5% $-231	+0% $-325	+5% $-419	+10% $-514
Rent	-10% $-486	-5% $-405	+0% $-325	+5% $-245	+10% $-164
Rate	-1.0pp $-187	-0.5pp $-255	base $-325	+0.5pp $-396	+1.0pp $-468

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,248
• Closing costs: $8,190
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 32 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
214 Crooked Field Dr Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	1398	$1,900	$1.36	26d	1	0.12mi
503 Saddle Blanket Dr Nevada, TX	4.0	3.0	2077	$2,190	$1.05	45d	1	0.16mi
504 Saddle Blanket Dr Nevada, TX	4.0	2.0	1649	$1,925	$1.17	8d	1	0.19mi
504 Saddle Blanket Dr Nevada, TX	4.0	2.0	1649	$1,949	$1.18	17d	1	0.19mi
319 Plum Dr Nevada, TX	4.0	2.0	1587	$1,899	$1.20	12d	1	0.55mi
1307 Community Way Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	2104	$2,100	$1.00	45d	1	0.57mi
305 Silo Cir Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	2074	$2,100	$1.01	26d	1	0.62mi
311 Milo Way Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	2074	$2,200	$1.06	8d	1	0.68mi
802 Turnbuckle Ct Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	1577	$1,849	$1.17	45d	1	0.78mi
503 Cistern Way Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	1294	$1,795	$1.39	3d	1	0.83mi
508 Windrow Dr Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	1533	$1,875	$1.22	26d	1	0.84mi
508 Windrow Dr Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	1533	$1,900	$1.24	45d	1	0.84mi
1004 Cotton Gin Ct Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	1875	$1,850	$0.99	14d	1	0.86mi
1503 Cotton Gin Ct Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	1566	$2,200	$1.40	45d	1	0.86mi
1007 Cotton Gin Ct Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	1611	$2,050	$1.27	45d	1	0.86mi
801 Meadow Creek Ln Josephine, TX	4.0	2.0	1757	$2,500	$1.42	6d	1	0.88mi
722 Windmill St Josephine, TX	4.0	2.0	1568	$2,190	$1.40	3d	1	0.90mi
800 Windmill St Josephine, TX	4.0	2.0	1843	$2,100	$1.14	9d	1	0.90mi
800 Windmill St Josephine, TX	4.0	2.0	1843	$2,100	$1.14	1d	1	0.90mi
1501 Bridle Dr Josephine, TX	4.0	2.0	2081	$1,975	$0.95	45d	1	0.91mi
315 Pine Hollow Way Josephine, TX	4.0	3.0	2212	$2,300	$1.04	9d	1	0.95mi
1210 Honeysuckle Dr Josephine, TX	5.0	2.0	1995	$2,100	$1.05	14d	1	0.96mi
711 Cistern Way Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	2081	$1,975	$0.95	9d	1	1.05mi
1208 Fieldstone Ct Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	1835	$2,000	$1.09	45d	1	1.05mi
717 Cottonwood WAY Josephine, TX	4.0	3.0	2073	$2,125	$1.03	0d	1	1.06mi
306 E Cook St Josephine, TX	3.0	2.0	1817	$2,100	$1.16	0d	1	1.09mi
1413 Thunder Canyon Way Josephine, TX	5.0	2.0	2006	$2,500	$1.25	45d	1	1.10mi
1910 Bailer Way Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	1592	$1,995	$1.25	26d	1	1.31mi
2000 Bailer Way Royse City, TX	3.0	2.5	1947	$2,500	$1.28	4d	1	1.32mi
2008 Bailer Way Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	1509	$1,975	$1.31	20d	1	1.33mi
816 Country Rd Royse City, TX	4.0	2.5	2080	$2,550	$1.23	0d	1	1.38mi
903 Shear Dr Royse City, TX	3.0	2.5	1898	$2,000	$1.05	4d	1	1.39mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $46 · $552/yr
• Likely covers: security

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $272,990 Active 47 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $272,990 Active 44 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $272,990 Active 43 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $272,990 Active 42 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $272,990 Active 41 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $272,990 Active 39 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $272,990 Active 38 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $272,990 Active 35 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $272,990 Active 34 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $272,990 Active 33 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $272,990 Active 30 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $272,990 Active 29 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $272,990 Active 28 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $272,990 Active 27 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $272,990 Active 26 DOM
16. 2026-05-11
    price $302,990 580-char remark
17. 2026-05-05
    listed $300,990 Active 580-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,420
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,292
• − Property taxes: −$4,095
• − Insurance: −$1,365
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,954
• − Management: −$1,954
• − HOA: −$552
• − Depreciation: −$7,942
• Taxable loss: −$8,732
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,096
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,803/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Community ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814850
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $71,841
• Composite: 31.58/100
• National rank: #5951
• State rank: #479 of 826 in TX

Livability — Josephine

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #1076
• US rank: #19105

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 9,284

Population outlook (Collin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,210,074 people
• By 2030: 1,358,201 · +12.2%
• By 2040: 1,654,061 · +36.7%
• By 2050: 1,937,359 · +60.1%
• By 2075: 2,567,039 · +112.1%
• By 2100: 2,952,048 · +144.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 15% Black 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 24% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Collin

• 2024 margin: R (+11.1) · D 43.1% · R 54.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.4pp toward D · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.1 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 10.09%
• Current HPI: 331.12
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-9.3% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Price Changed $272,990 Zillow
• 2026-05-28 Price Changed $272,990 NTREIS
• 2026-05-28 Listed $302,990 Zillow
• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $302,990 NTREIS
• 2026-05-05 Listed $300,990 NTREIS