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4455 W 19th St #16
C Composite 58.36
Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

  • Cash flow +18.8/30.0
  • ARV discount +15.0/15.0
  • DSCR +5.9/10.0
  • 1% rule +5.0/10.0
  • Condition / age +3.8/5.0
  • Livability +3.6/5.0
  • Schools +3.5/10.0
  • Rent growth +2.8/5.0
  • Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$149,900

4455 W 19th St #16 · Panama City, FL 32405
2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,104 sqft · Townhouse · 215 Days on market
Built 1985 Good condition 741 sqft lot $136/sqft · 18% below area Est $183k · 18% under

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks MLS

Totally renovated 2 bedroom 1.5 bathroom townhouse centrally located in St Andrews with no HOA fees. The townhouse offers large living area, inside laundry and fenced in back yard with an open patio. Close the beach, St Andrews Bay, Gulf Coast State College, FSU and much more. Call to see today!

Key facts

  • Built 1985
  • Listed 214 days

Neighborhood map

Property Rental comp Retail Costco Walmart Transit Schools Stadiums Fortune 500 · Circle radius: 6.0 mi
Loading POIs…

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

  • This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath townhouse listed at $150k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

  • At list price, monthly cash flow is $151 ($2k/yr) — positive.
  • The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
  • Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
  • Recommended offer: $132k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
  • Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 4.4% in Panama City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

  • Location reads 72/100 on livability (#350 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
  • Bay (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #29 of 73 in FL (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
  • Zoned schools: Lucille Moore Elementary School (math 24% / reading 30%, grade F, #1,969 of 2,144 statewide, top 94%, 503 students, 71% FRL); Jinks Middle School (math 41% / reading 42%, grade F, #348 of 571 statewide, top 62%, 570 students, 70% FRL); Bay High School (math 37% / reading 34%, grade F, #367 of 667 statewide, top 57%, 1,255 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools average 65% FRL vs 48% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
  • Zoned-school proficiency averages 35% at this address vs 51% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Bay average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
  • Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 529 active listings in the ZIP; 29 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 11d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,473 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (559 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

  • Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
  • Bay County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

  • It's been on market 215 days — a 12% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
  • 4 sale attempts since 19y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

  • Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Recommended offer $131,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

  1. It's been on market 215 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
  2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
  3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
  4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
  5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
  6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
  7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
  8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule
1.00% ✓
Cap rate
7.50%
Cash-on-cash
4.31%
DSCR
1.19
GRM
8.3

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp)
$183,290
List price
$149,900
Delta
-18.22%
Verdict
UNDERPRICED
Comps
11 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi
Address Dist Beds/Ba Sqft Sold Price $/sf Match
3714 Burnham Way 0.57mi 3/2.0 (+1) 1,040 (-6%) 0mo $90,000 $87 56
1718 Palmetto Ave 0.33mi 3/2.0 (+1) 1,240 (+12%) 1mo $280,000 $226 56
3700 Burnham Way 0.61mi 3/2.0 (+1) 1,040 (-6%) 0mo $90,000 $87 54
1815 Foster Ave 1.31mi 3/2.0 (+1) 1,071 (-3%) 1mo $229,000 $214 52
1610 Lake Ave 0.86mi 3/1.0 (+1) 1,066 (-3%) 0mo $199,500 $187 52
3106 W 21st Ct 0.88mi 3/1.0 (+1) 1,142 (+3%) 2mo $192,500 $169 51
1610 Louise Ave 0.57mi 3/2.0 (+1) 1,222 (+11%) 0mo $200,000 $164 49
1817 Foster Ave 1.30mi 3/2.0 (+1) 1,222 (+11%) 1mo $175,000 $143 40
3515 W 19th St #2 0.66mi 3/2.0 (+1) 1,376 (+25%) 2mo $190,000 $138 36
3104 W 16th St 0.94mi 3/2.0 (+1) 1,273 (+15%) 0mo $349,000 $274 33
3001 W 21st Ct Unit A 1.05mi 3/2.0 (+1) 1,272 (+15%) 2mo $255,000 $200 31
3001 W 21st Ct Unit A 1.05mi 3/2.0 (+1) 1,272 (+15%) 2mo $255,000 $200 31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.24% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold
IRR
-11.6%
Equity multiple
0.59×
Total profit
$-17,288
Equity at exit
$22,351
10-year hold
IRR
-5.1%
Equity multiple
0.69×
Total profit
$-12,962
Equity at exit
$12,961

Cash invested: $41,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE)
87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Florida
87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
County
— inherits STATE
City
— inherits STATE
3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now
2 active
Median asking
$234,750 ($198/sqft)
Median days on market
64 d
This list price
50% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking
-16.0% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 32405

Rents YoY
1.2%
Active inventory
529
Price-to-rent
8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent
$1,502 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I)
−$786
Tax est. 1.5%
−$187 /mo · $2,248/yr
Insurance
−$62
HOA
−$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
−$315
Net cashflow
$151

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,311
Max offer price $149,900
Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price -10% $254 -5% $202 +0% $151 +5% $99 +10% $47
Rent -10% $32 -5% $91 +0% $151 +5% $210 +10% $269
Rate -1.0pp $226 -0.5pp $189 base $151 +0.5pp $112 +1.0pp $72

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment
$37,475
Closing costs
$4,497
Reserves months
—
Total cash needed
—

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested
—
Monthly P&I
—
Monthly cashflow
—
DSCR
—
Eligible?
—

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested
—
Monthly P&I
—
Monthly cashflow
—
DSCR
—
Eligible?
—

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested
—
Monthly P&I
—
Monthly cashflow
—
DSCR
—
Eligible?
—

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 29 comps

AddressBedsBaths SqftRent$/sqft DOM Units Dist
4455 W 19th St #17 Panama City, FL 2.0 1.5 1104 $1,195 $1.08 51d 1 0.02mi
1823 High Ave Panama City, FL 2.0 2.0 904 $1,800 $1.99 1d 1 0.11mi
1823 High Ave Panama City, FL 2.0 2.0 904 $1,800 $1.99 51d 1 0.11mi
1913 Laurel Ave Unit A Panama City, FL 2.0 2.5 1238 $1,700 $1.37 10d 1 0.27mi
1915 Laurel Ave Panama City, FL 3.0 2.0 1084 $790 $0.73 7d 1 0.28mi
1901 Grant Ave Panama City, FL 3.0 2.0 1271 $1,750 $1.38 29d 1 0.30mi
4324 W 20th St Panama City, FL 1.0–3.0 1.0–2.0 1000 $1,392 $1.39 0d 16 0.31mi
4904 W 19th Ct Panama City, FL 3.0 1.0 918 $1,500 $1.63 10d 1 0.38mi
4105 W 22nd St Unit 4105 Panama City, FL 3.0 2.0 1000 $1,395 $1.40 162d 1 0.49mi
3722 Burnham Way Panama City, FL 3.0 2.0 1040 $1,600 $1.54 162d 1 0.53mi
1708 Louise Ave Panama City, FL 2.0 1.0 900 $1,195 $1.33 49d 1 0.54mi
1708 Louise Ave Panama City, FL 2.0 1.0 925 $895 $0.97 0d 1 0.54mi
3712 Burnham Way Panama City, FL 3.0 2.0 1040 $1,600 $1.54 10d 1 0.56mi
3515 W 19th St #18 Panama City, FL 2.0 2.0 1349 $1,800 $1.33 2d 1 0.64mi
3415 W 19th St #22 Panama City, FL 3.0 2.0 1280 $1,399 $1.09 10d 1 0.70mi
3122 W 21st Ct Panama City, FL 3.0 1.0 1040 $1,600 $1.54 2d 1 0.76mi
1828 Lake Ave Panama City, FL 2.0 2.0 1200 $1,600 $1.33 10d 1 0.82mi
1828 Lake Ave Panama City, FL 2.0 2.0 1200 $1,600 $1.33 49d 1 0.82mi
2203 Beck Ave Panama City, FL 1.0–2.0 1.0–1.5 850 $1,480 $1.74 10d 20 1.01mi
3910 25th St Panama City, FL 3.0 2.0 960 $1,350 $1.41 51d 1 1.03mi
1811 Chestnut Ave Panama City, FL 2.0 1.0 960 $1,800 $1.88 10d 1 1.05mi
1301 Beck Ave Panama City, FL 2.0 1.0 813 $2,600 $3.20 51d 1 1.16mi
1514 Wilmont Ave Unit 1514D Panama City, FL 2.0 1.5 950 $1,200 $1.26 10d 1 1.19mi
1710 Drake Ave Panama City, FL 3.0 2.0 1130 $1,850 $1.64 162d 1 1.20mi
1804 Arthur Ave Panama City, FL 3.0 1.5 1044 $1,795 $1.72 162d 1 1.38mi
1912 Arthur Ave Panama City, FL 3.0 1.5 1410 $1,800 $1.28 10d 1 1.40mi
1510 Arthur Ave Unit B Panama City, FL 2.0 1.0 785 $1,200 $1.53 10d 1 1.43mi
1510 Arthur Ave Unit C Panama City, FL 2.0 1.0 720 $1,250 $1.74 10d 1 1.43mi
2602 W 12th St Panama City, FL 3.0 2.0 1400 $2,095 $1.50 162d 1 1.46mi

Property features AI

Exterior

Utilities
Public sewer
Home design
Stucco and wood siding exteriorSlab foundation
Construction
Stucco and wood siding construction
Exterior features
FencedCity street frontagePublicly maintained road

Interior

Kitchen
Electric range
Bedrooms
Primary bedroomBedroom on second level
Bathrooms
One full bathroom on second levelOne half bathroom on first level
Interior features
Interior steps
Laundry & utility
Laundry room on first level (4 x 5)

Listing history 50 events

  1. 2026-11-08
    days on market $149,900 Active 215 DOM
  2. 2026-11-07
    days on market $149,900 Active 214 DOM
  3. 2026-11-06
    days on market $149,900 Active 213 DOM
  4. 2026-11-05
    days on market $149,900 Active 212 DOM
  5. 2026-11-04
    days on market $149,900 Active 211 DOM
  6. 2026-11-02
    days on market $149,900 Active 209 DOM
  7. 2026-11-01
    days on market $149,900 Active 208 DOM
  8. 2026-10-31
    days on market $149,900 Active 207 DOM
  9. 2026-10-30
    days on market $149,900 Active 206 DOM
  10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $149,900 Active 205 DOM
  11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $149,900 Active 204 DOM
  12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $149,900 Active 203 DOM
  13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $149,900 Active 202 DOM
  14. 2026-10-25
    days on market $149,900 Active 201 DOM
  15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $149,900 Active 200 DOM
  16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $149,900 Active 199 DOM
  17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $149,900 Active 198 DOM
  18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $149,900 Active 197 DOM
  19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $149,900 Active 196 DOM
  20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $149,900 Active 195 DOM
  21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $149,900 Active 194 DOM
  22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $149,900 Active 193 DOM
  23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $149,900 Active 192 DOM
  24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $149,900 Active 191 DOM
  25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $149,900 Active 190 DOM
  26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $149,900 Active 189 DOM
  27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $149,900 Active 188 DOM
  28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $149,900 Active 187 DOM
  29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $149,900 Active 186 DOM
  30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $149,900 Active 185 DOM
  31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $149,900 Active 184 DOM
  32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $149,900 Active 183 DOM
  33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $149,900 Active 182 DOM
  34. 2026-09-29
    days on market $149,900 Active 181 DOM
  35. 2026-09-28
    days on market $149,900 Active 180 DOM
  36. 2026-09-27
    days on market $149,900 Active 179 DOM
  37. 2026-09-26
    days on market $149,900 Active 178 DOM
  38. 2026-09-25
    days on market $149,900 Active 177 DOM
  39. 2026-09-24
    days on market $149,900 Active 176 DOM
  40. 2026-09-24
    days on market $149,900 Active 175 DOM
  41. 2026-09-22
    days on market $149,900 Active 174 DOM
  42. 2026-09-20
    days on market $149,900 Active 172 DOM
  43. 2026-09-19
    days on market $149,900 Active 171 DOM
  44. 2026-09-18
    days on market $149,900 Active 170 DOM
  45. 2026-09-17
    days on market $149,900 Active 169 DOM
  46. 2026-09-16
    days on market $149,900 Active 168 DOM
  47. 2026-09-15
    days on market $149,900 Active 167 DOM
  48. 2026-09-14
    days on market $149,900 Active 166 DOM
  49. 2026-09-13
    days on market $149,900 Active 165 DOM
  50. 2026-09-12
    days on market $149,900 Active 164 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

  • 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
  • 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
  • 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
  • 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
  • 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income
$18,024
− Mortgage interest
−$8,397
− Property taxes
−$2,248
− Insurance
−$750
− Repairs & maintenance
−$1,442
− Management
−$1,442
− Depreciation
−$4,361
Taxable loss
−$616
combined federal + state — saved on this device
Est. tax savings @ 24.0%
+$148
After-tax cash flow
$1,955/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $5,520–$16,560 screening

This well-maintained townhouse in St. Andrews offers a good opportunity for buyers looking to customize or invest. The property is located in a convenient area with easy access to amenities.

Value-add opportunities

  • Both paint interior walls — fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
  • Both install smart home devices — improves convenience and marketability ↑
  • Both landscape front yard — enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 35/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Lucille Moore Elementary School F FL #1,969/2,144 Nat'l #28,475/41,679 Middle Jinks Middle School F FL #348/571 Nat'l #5,602/14,009 High Bay High School F FL #367/667 Nat'l #9,497/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District
Bay
NCES district ID
1200090
Math proficiency
51% ▼ -8.00%
Reading proficiency
51% ▼ -7.00%
Median HH income
$47,740
Composite
43.41/100
National rank
#3014
State rank
#29 of 73 in FL
B Composite livability gradescore 72/100

Livability — Panama City

Score
72/100
State rank
#350
US rank
#5823

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

Census place
Panama City, FL
County
Bay County · 206,264 people
City population
91,445
Metro
Panama City, FL
Population (ZIP)
29,984
Household income
$73,373
Rent vs Own
40.5% rent · 59.5% own
Severe rent burden
15% of renters

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025)
206,264 people
By 2030
217,740 · +5.6%
By 2040
238,738 · +15.7%
By 2050
255,545 · +23.9%
By 2075
288,295 · +39.8%
By 2100
288,638 · +39.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character
Predominantly White (67%)
Race & ethnicity
White 67% Black 17% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 7% Native American 1%
Hispanic origin (detail)
Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
Languages at home
89% English-only · Spanish 6% Arabic 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

2024 margin
Solid R (+47.4) · D 25.8% · R 73.1% · Other 1.1%
2008→2024 swing
-6.6pp toward R · 2008: -40.7pp · 2024: -47.4pp
All cycles
2024: R+47.4 2020: R+43.5 2016: R+46.3 2012: R+43.6 2008: R+40.7

Not yet ingested

Civics
—

Price history

+94.5% since first listed
9 events — show timeline
  • 2026-04-14 Price Changed $174,900 CPARMLS
  • 2026-03-23 Listed $180,000 CPARMLS
  • 2023-11-10 Sold (MLS) $165,000 CPARMLS
  • 2023-11-07 Pending — CPARMLS
  • 2023-10-14 Listed $179,000 CPARMLS
  • 2021-12-14 Listing Removed — CPARMLS
  • 2010-04-26 Sold (MLS) $54,900 CPARMLS
  • 2008-09-25 Listed $54,900 CPARMLS
  • 2007-04-05 Listed $89,900 CPARMLS

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

Loading sold comps…