4455 W 19th St #16 · Panama City, FL 32405

$174,900

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,104 sqft · Townhouse · 81 Days on market

Built 1985 Good condition 741 sqft lot $158/sqft · at area comps Est $181k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.8/30.0
• ARV discount +8.9/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great opportunity in St. Andrews to own a townhome with potential. This property offers a functional layout with comfortable living space and is ready for a new owner to add their personal touch. A good option for buyers looking to customize or invest. Conveniently located in Panama City with easy access to shopping, dining, and everyday amenities. All measurements, zoning, and sizes are approximate; please verify if important.

Key facts

• Built 1985
• Listed 81 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath townhouse listed at $175k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-16 ($-192/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $173k (1.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $151k (13.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $151k (13.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 4.7% in Panama City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#350 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Bay (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #29 of 73 in FL (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Lucille Moore Elementary School (math 24% / reading 30%, grade F, #1,969 of 2,144 statewide, top 94%, 503 students, 71% FRL); Jinks Middle School (math 41% / reading 42%, grade F, #348 of 571 statewide, top 62%, 570 students, 70% FRL); Bay High School (math 37% / reading 34%, grade F, #367 of 667 statewide, top 57%, 1,255 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools average 65% FRL vs 48% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 35% at this address vs 51% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Bay average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 380 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,473 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (559 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bay County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 81 days — a 6% lower offer ($164k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $150,977 (13.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 81 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.18%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.39%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $180,666
• List price: $174,900
• Delta: -3.19%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 9 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4455 W 19th St #41	0.00mi	2/1.5	1,164 (+5%)	2mo	$90,000	$77	89
4455 W 19th St #45	0.00mi	2/1.5	1,164 (+5%)	22mo	$130,000	$112	72
1918 Karly Ct	0.39mi	2/2.5	1,224 (+11%)	16mo	$180,000	$147	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.24% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-31,964
• Equity at exit: $26,078

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.19×
• Total profit: $-39,459
• Equity at exit: $15,122

Cash invested: $48,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32405

• Rents YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 380
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,510 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$917
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$219 /mo · $2,624/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$317
• Net cashflow: $-16

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,530

Max offer price $172,588

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $105	-5% $44	+0% $-16	+5% $-76	+10% $-137
Rent	-10% $-135	-5% $-76	+0% $-16	+5% $44	+10% $103
Rate	-1.0pp $72	-0.5pp $29	base $-16	+0.5pp $-61	+1.0pp $-107

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,725
• Closing costs: $5,247
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4455 W 19th St #17 Panama City, FL	2.0	1.5	1104	$1,400	$1.27	23d	1	0.02mi
1913 Laurel Ave Unit A Panama City, FL	2.0	2.5	1238	$1,725	$1.39	15d	1	0.27mi
4324 W 20th St Panama City, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1000	$1,382	$1.38	15d	12	0.31mi
4105 W 22nd St Unit 4105 Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,395	$1.40	23d	1	0.49mi
3722 Burnham Way Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1040	$1,600	$1.54	23d	1	0.53mi
1710 Drake Ave Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1130	$1,850	$1.64	23d	1	1.20mi
1804 Arthur Ave Panama City, FL	3.0	1.5	1044	$1,795	$1.72	23d	1	1.38mi
2602 W 12th St Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1400	$2,095	$1.50	23d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $174,900 Active 81 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $174,900 Active 79 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $174,900 Active 78 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $174,900 Active 77 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $174,900 Active 76 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $174,900 Active 75 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $174,900 Active 73 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $174,900 Active 72 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $174,900 Active 70 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $174,900 Active 69 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $174,900 Active 68 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $174,900 Active 67 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $174,900 Active 64 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $174,900 Active 63 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $174,900 Active 62 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $174,900 Active 61 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $174,900 Active 60 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $174,900 Active 59 DOM
19. 2026-04-14
    price $174,900 431-char remark

    Show marketing remark (431 chars)

    Great opportunity in St. Andrews to own a townhome with potential. This property offers a functional layout with comfortable living space and is ready for a new owner to add their personal touch. A good option for buyers looking to customize or invest. Conveniently located in Panama City with easy access to shopping, dining, and everyday amenities. All measurements, zoning, and sizes are approximate; please verify if important.

20. 2026-03-23
    listed $180,000 Active 431-char remark

    Show marketing remark (431 chars)

    Great opportunity in St. Andrews to own a townhome with potential. This property offers a functional layout with comfortable living space and is ready for a new owner to add their personal touch. A good option for buyers looking to customize or invest. Conveniently located in Panama City with easy access to shopping, dining, and everyday amenities. All measurements, zoning, and sizes are approximate; please verify if important.

21. 2023-11-10
    soldstatus $165,000 Closed 296-char remark

    Show marketing remark (296 chars)

    Totally renovated 2 bedroom 1.5 bathroom townhouse centrally located in St Andrews with no HOA fees. The townhouse offers large living area, inside laundry and fenced in back yard with an open patio. Close the beach, St Andrews Bay, Gulf Coast State College, FSU and much more. Call to see today!

22. 2023-11-07
    status Pending 296-char remark

    Show marketing remark (296 chars)

    Totally renovated 2 bedroom 1.5 bathroom townhouse centrally located in St Andrews with no HOA fees. The townhouse offers large living area, inside laundry and fenced in back yard with an open patio. Close the beach, St Andrews Bay, Gulf Coast State College, FSU and much more. Call to see today!

23. 2023-10-14
    listed $179,000 Active 296-char remark

    Show marketing remark (296 chars)

    Totally renovated 2 bedroom 1.5 bathroom townhouse centrally located in St Andrews with no HOA fees. The townhouse offers large living area, inside laundry and fenced in back yard with an open patio. Close the beach, St Andrews Bay, Gulf Coast State College, FSU and much more. Call to see today!

24. 2021-12-14
    historical
25. 2010-04-26
    soldstatus $54,900
26. 2008-09-25
    listed $54,900
27. 2007-04-05
    listed $89,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 74% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,117
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,797
• − Property taxes: −$2,624
• − Insurance: −$874
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,449
• − Management: −$1,449
• − Depreciation: −$5,088
• Taxable loss: −$3,165
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$760
• After-tax cash flow: $568/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained townhouse in St. Andrews offers a good opportunity for buyers looking to customize or invest. The property is located in a convenient area with easy access to amenities.

Value-add opportunities

• Both paint interior walls — fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both install smart home devices — improves convenience and marketability
• Both landscape front yard — enhances curb appeal and adds value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both paint interior walls — fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both install smart home devices — improves convenience and marketability ↑
• Both landscape front yard — enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay
• NCES district ID: 1200090
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,740
• Composite: 43.41/100
• National rank: #3014
• State rank: #29 of 73 in FL

Livability — Panama City

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #350
• US rank: #5823

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Panama City, FL
• County: Bay County · 163,593 people
• City population: 91,445
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• Population (ZIP): 29,984
• Household income: $73,373
• Rent vs Own: 40.5% rent · 59.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1008.0

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 206,264 people
• By 2030: 217,740 · +5.6%
• By 2040: 238,738 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 255,545 · +23.9%
• By 2075: 288,295 · +39.8%
• By 2100: 288,638 · +39.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Black 17% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 7% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 6% Arabic 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.4) · D 25.8% · R 73.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.6pp toward R · 2008: -40.7pp · 2024: -47.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.4 2020: R+43.5 2016: R+46.3 2012: R+43.6 2008: R+40.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -217.88%
• Current HPI: 262.7854
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.24%
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+94.5% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $174,900 CPARMLS
• 2026-03-23 Listed $180,000 CPARMLS
• 2023-11-10 Sold (MLS) $165,000 CPARMLS
• 2023-11-07 Pending — CPARMLS
• 2023-10-14 Listed $179,000 CPARMLS
• 2021-12-14 Listing Removed — CPARMLS
• 2010-04-26 Sold (MLS) $54,900 CPARMLS
• 2008-09-25 Listed $54,900 CPARMLS
• 2007-04-05 Listed $89,900 CPARMLS