4455 W 19th St #16 · Panama City, FL 32405

$149,900

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,104 sqft · Townhouse · 175 Days on market

Built 1985 Good condition 741 sqft lot $136/sqft · 19% below area Est $184k · 19% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.8/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Totally renovated 2 bedroom 1.5 bathroom townhouse centrally located in St Andrews with no HOA fees. The townhouse offers large living area, inside laundry and fenced in back yard with an open patio. Close the beach, St Andrews Bay, Gulf Coast State College, FSU and much more. Call to see today!

Key facts

• Built 1985
• Listed 175 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath townhouse listed at $150k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $143 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $149k (0.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $132k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 4.3% in Panama City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#350 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Bay (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #29 of 73 in FL (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Lucille Moore Elementary School (math 24% / reading 30%, grade F, #1,969 of 2,144 statewide, top 94%, 503 students, 71% FRL); Jinks Middle School (math 41% / reading 42%, grade F, #348 of 571 statewide, top 62%, 570 students, 70% FRL); Bay High School (math 37% / reading 34%, grade F, #367 of 667 statewide, top 57%, 1,255 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools average 65% FRL vs 48% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 35% at this address vs 51% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Bay average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 480 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,473 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (559 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bay County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 175 days — a 12% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 19y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $131,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 175 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.09%
• DSCR: 1.18
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $183,953
• List price: $149,900
• Delta: -18.51%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 11 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1724 Alabama Ave	0.37mi	2/1.5	952 (-14%)	2mo	$165,000	$173	58
3704 Burnham Way	0.60mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,040 (-6%)	2mo	$165,000	$159	54
1904 Calhoun Ave	1.47mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,067 (-3%)	2mo	$75,000	$70	51
1701 Louise Ave	0.52mi	2/2.0	851 (-23%)	2mo	$182,000	$214	47
1914 Calhoun Ave	1.47mi	2/2.0	1,239 (+12%)	2mo	$127,000	$103	40
2704 W 12th St Unit A	1.42mi	2/2.5	1,236 (+12%)	3mo	$249,000	$201	38
3001 W 10th St #415	1.42mi	2/2.0	1,252 (+13%)	3mo	$425,000	$339	38
3515 W 19th St #2	0.66mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,376 (+25%)	0mo	$190,000	$138	37
2114 Deluna Ave	0.96mi	3/2.0 (+1)	975 (-12%)	3mo	$210,000	$215	36
1701 Deer Ave Ave	0.76mi	3/1.0 (+1)	945 (-14%)	2mo	$260,000	$275	33
3001 W 21st Ct Unit A	1.05mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,272 (+15%)	1mo	$255,000	$200	32
3001 W 21st Ct Unit A	1.05mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,272 (+15%)	1mo	$255,000	$200	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.24% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.58×
• Total profit: $-17,765
• Equity at exit: $22,351

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.67×
• Total profit: $-13,946
• Equity at exit: $12,961

Cash invested: $41,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 2 active
• Months of supply: 12.0 mo (8%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $246,000 ($207/sqft)
• Median days on market: 30 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: -19.6% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 32405

• Rents YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 480
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,492 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$187 /mo · $2,248/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$313
• Net cashflow: $143

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,311

Max offer price $149,900

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $246	-5% $195	+0% $143	+5% $91	+10% $39
Rent	-10% $25	-5% $84	+0% $143	+5% $202	+10% $261
Rate	-1.0pp $218	-0.5pp $181	base $143	+0.5pp $104	+1.0pp $65

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,475
• Closing costs: $4,497
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4455 W 19th St #17 Panama City, FL	2.0	1.5	1104	$1,195	$1.08	6d	1	0.02mi
1823 High Ave Panama City, FL	2.0	2.0	904	$1,800	$1.99	6d	1	0.11mi
1913 Laurel Ave Unit A Panama City, FL	2.0	2.5	1238	$1,700	$1.37	6d	1	0.27mi
4324 W 20th St Panama City, FL	2.0–3.0	1.5–2.5	1100	$1,240	$1.13	0d	16	0.31mi
4904 W 19th Ct Panama City, FL	3.0	1.0	918	$1,500	$1.63	6d	1	0.38mi
4105 W 22nd St Unit 4105 Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,395	$1.40	116d	1	0.49mi
3722 Burnham Way Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1040	$1,600	$1.54	116d	1	0.53mi
1708 Louise Ave Panama City, FL	2.0	1.0	900	$1,195	$1.33	3d	1	0.54mi
3712 Burnham Way Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1040	$1,700	$1.63	6d	1	0.56mi
3415 W 19th St #22 Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1280	$1,499	$1.17	6d	1	0.70mi
1828 Lake Ave Panama City, FL	2.0	2.0	1200	$1,600	$1.33	3d	1	0.82mi
3910 25th St Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	960	$1,350	$1.41	6d	1	1.03mi
1301 Beck Ave Panama City, FL	2.0	1.0	813	$2,600	$3.20	6d	1	1.16mi
1710 Drake Ave Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1130	$1,850	$1.64	116d	1	1.20mi
1804 Arthur Ave Panama City, FL	3.0	1.5	1044	$1,795	$1.72	116d	1	1.38mi
1510 Arthur Ave Unit B Panama City, FL	2.0	1.0	785	$1,300	$1.66	6d	1	1.43mi
1510 Arthur Ave Unit C Panama City, FL	2.0	1.0	720	$1,350	$1.88	6d	1	1.43mi
2602 W 12th St Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1400	$2,095	$1.50	116d	1	1.46mi

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Stucco and wood siding exteriorSlab foundation
• Construction: Stucco and wood siding construction
• Exterior features: FencedCity street frontagePublicly maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroomBedroom on second level
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on second levelOne half bathroom on first level
• Interior features: Interior steps
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room on first level (4 x 5)

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $149,900 Active 175 DOM
2. 2026-09-22
   days on market $149,900 Active 174 DOM
3. 2026-09-20
   days on market $149,900 Active 172 DOM
4. 2026-09-19
   days on market $149,900 Active 171 DOM
5. 2026-09-18
   days on market $149,900 Active 170 DOM
6. 2026-09-17
   days on market $149,900 Active 169 DOM
7. 2026-09-16
   days on market $149,900 Active 168 DOM
8. 2026-09-15
   days on market $149,900 Active 167 DOM
9. 2026-09-14
   days on market $149,900 Active 166 DOM
10. 2026-09-13
    days on market $149,900 Active 165 DOM
11. 2026-09-12
    days on market $149,900 Active 164 DOM
12. 2026-09-12
    pricedays on market $149,900 Active 163 DOM
13. 2026-09-05
    days on market $174,900 Active 157 DOM
14. 2026-09-04
    days on market $174,900 Active 156 DOM
15. 2026-09-03
    days on market $174,900 Active 155 DOM
16. 2026-08-30
    days on market $174,900 Active 151 DOM
17. 2026-08-29
    days on market $174,900 Active 150 DOM
18. 2026-08-28
    days on market $174,900 Active 149 DOM
19. 2026-08-27
    days on market $174,900 Active 148 DOM
20. 2026-08-26
    days on market $174,900 Active 147 DOM
21. 2026-08-25
    days on market $174,900 Active 146 DOM
22. 2026-08-24
    days on market $174,900 Active 145 DOM
23. 2026-08-23
    days on market $174,900 Active 144 DOM
24. 2026-08-22
    days on market $174,900 Active 143 DOM
25. 2026-08-21
    days on market $174,900 Active 142 DOM
26. 2026-08-20
    days on market $174,900 Active 141 DOM
27. 2026-08-19
    days on market $174,900 Active 140 DOM
28. 2026-08-18
    days on market $174,900 Active 139 DOM
29. 2026-08-17
    days on market $174,900 Active 138 DOM
30. 2026-08-16
    days on market $174,900 Active 137 DOM
31. 2026-08-15
    days on market $174,900 Active 136 DOM
32. 2026-08-14
    days on market $174,900 Active 135 DOM
33. 2026-08-13
    days on market $174,900 Active 134 DOM
34. 2026-08-12
    days on market $174,900 Active 133 DOM
35. 2026-08-11
    days on market $174,900 Active 132 DOM
36. 2026-08-10
    days on market $174,900 Active 131 DOM
37. 2026-08-09
    days on market $174,900 Active 130 DOM
38. 2026-08-08
    days on market $174,900 Active 129 DOM
39. 2026-08-07
    days on market $174,900 Active 128 DOM
40. 2026-08-06
    days on market $174,900 Active 127 DOM
41. 2026-08-05
    days on market $174,900 Active 126 DOM
42. 2026-08-04
    days on market $174,900 Active 125 DOM
43. 2026-08-03
    days on market $174,900 Active 124 DOM
44. 2026-07-31
    days on market $174,900 Active 121 DOM
45. 2026-07-30
    days on market $174,900 Active 120 DOM
46. 2026-07-29
    days on market $174,900 Active 119 DOM
47. 2026-07-27
    days on market $174,900 Active 117 DOM
48. 2026-07-25
    days on market $174,900 Active 115 DOM
49. 2026-07-23
    days on market $174,900 Active 113 DOM
50. 2026-07-22
    days on market $174,900 Active 112 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,906
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,397
• − Property taxes: −$2,248
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,432
• − Management: −$1,432
• − Depreciation: −$4,361
• Taxable loss: −$714
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$171
• After-tax cash flow: $1,886/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $5,520–$16,560 screening

This well-maintained townhouse in St. Andrews offers a good opportunity for buyers looking to customize or invest. The property is located in a convenient area with easy access to amenities.

Value-add opportunities

• Both paint interior walls — fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both install smart home devices — improves convenience and marketability ↑
• Both landscape front yard — enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 35/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Lucille Moore Elementary School F FL #1,969/2,144 Nat'l #28,475/41,679 Middle Jinks Middle School F FL #348/571 Nat'l #5,602/14,009 High Bay High School F FL #367/667 Nat'l #9,497/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay
• NCES district ID: 1200090
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,740
• Composite: 43.41/100
• National rank: #3014
• State rank: #29 of 73 in FL

B Composite livability gradescore 72/100

Livability — Panama City

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #350
• US rank: #5823

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Panama City, FL
• County: Bay County · 206,264 people
• City population: 91,445
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• Population (ZIP): 29,984
• Household income: $73,373
• Rent vs Own: 40.5% rent · 59.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 15% of renters

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Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 206,264 people
• By 2030: 217,740 · +5.6%
• By 2040: 238,738 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 255,545 · +23.9%
• By 2075: 288,295 · +39.8%
• By 2100: 288,638 · +39.9%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Black 17% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 7% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 6% Arabic 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.4) · D 25.8% · R 73.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.6pp toward R · 2008: -40.7pp · 2024: -47.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.4 2020: R+43.5 2016: R+46.3 2012: R+43.6 2008: R+40.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -217.88%
• Current HPI: 262.7854
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.24%
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Stucco and wood siding exteriorSlab foundation
• Construction: Stucco and wood siding construction
• Exterior features: FencedCity street frontagePublicly maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroomBedroom on second level
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on second levelOne half bathroom on first level
• Interior features: Interior steps
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room on first level (4 x 5)

Price history

+94.5% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $174,900 CPARMLS
• 2026-03-23 Listed $180,000 CPARMLS
• 2023-11-10 Sold (MLS) $165,000 CPARMLS
• 2023-11-07 Pending — CPARMLS
• 2023-10-14 Listed $179,000 CPARMLS
• 2021-12-14 Listing Removed — CPARMLS
• 2010-04-26 Sold (MLS) $54,900 CPARMLS
• 2008-09-25 Listed $54,900 CPARMLS
• 2007-04-05 Listed $89,900 CPARMLS