815 Blackwell Ferry Rd · Kirbyville, MO 65679

$52,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 980 sqft · Manufactured · 5 Days on market

Built 1995 1.87 ac lot Est $52k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.4/15.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Bring your toolbelt and your vision! This 3-bed, 2-bath mobile home sits on a prime 1.87-acre lot that directly adjoins the US Army Corps of Engineers 'take line' at Bull Shoals Lake. While the home needs a full interior overhaul--including cabinets, HVAC, windows, flooring, fixtures and roof work--the setting is irreplaceable. Enjoy ultimate privacy with a backyard that blends into thousands of acres of protected federal land. Perfect for a fix-and-flip, a rental, or a primary residence with instant sweat equity. SOLD AS IS WHERE IS; come claim your piece of the Ozarks!

Key facts

• 1.87-acre lot
• 1.87 acre lot
• Built 1995

Tags

• 1.87-ACRE LOT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $52k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $502 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $52k).
• Cap rate 17.9% vs local median 3.4% in Kirbyville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#494 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D, crime F.
• Forsyth R-III (town): math 44% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #78 of 324 in MO (top 24%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Forsyth High (math 47% / reading 52%, grade D, #124 of 521 statewide, top 28%, 404 students, 54% FRL) — zoned schools at 54% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 29 active listings in the ZIP; 331 units permitted in Taney County in 2024 (50 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $360 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Taney County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $52,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.97% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.88%
• Cash-on-cash: 41.39%
• DSCR: 2.84
• GRM: 4.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $51,940
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
815 Blackwell Ferry Rd	0.00mi	3/2.0	980 (0%)	1mo	$52,000	$53	99

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 37.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.62×
• Total profit: $23,546
• Equity at exit: $7,753

10-year hold

• IRR: 44.5%
• Equity multiple: 5.23×
• Total profit: $61,628
• Equity at exit: $4,496

Cash invested: $14,560 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65679

• Home prices YoY: -11.7%
• Active inventory: 29
• Price-to-rent: 4.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,025 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$273
• Tax from tax record: −$13 /mo · $161/yr
• Insurance: −$22
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$215
• Net cashflow: $502

Break-even live

Break-even rent $390

Max offer price $52,000

Occupancy floor 46%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $532	-5% $517	+0% $502	+5% $488	+10% $473
Rent	-10% $421	-5% $462	+0% $502	+5% $543	+10% $583
Rate	-1.0pp $528	-0.5pp $515	base $502	+0.5pp $489	+1.0pp $475

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $13,000
• Closing costs: $1,560
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-03-17
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-12
   listed $52,000 Active
3. 2006-05-15
   soldstatus
4. 2000-09-15
   soldstatus
5. 1978-07-05
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $161 · $13/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $504 · $42/mo
• Expected delta: +$343/yr (+$29/mo · 213.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,304
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,913
• − Property taxes: −$161
• − Insurance: −$260
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$984
• − Management: −$984
• − Depreciation: −$1,513
• Taxable income: $5,489
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,317
• After-tax cash flow: $4,710/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Forsyth R-III
• NCES district ID: 2912240
• Math proficiency: 44% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $35,521
• Composite: 39.31/100
• National rank: #3991
• State rank: #78 of 324 in MO

Livability — Kirbyville

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #494
• US rank: #19167

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing B+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,738

Population outlook (Taney County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 59,017 people
• By 2030: 61,235 · +3.8%
• By 2040: 65,225 · +10.5%
• By 2050: 68,842 · +16.6%
• By 2075: 77,705 · +31.7%
• By 2100: 82,002 · +38.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 3% Native American 2%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 3% Iranian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Taney

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+59.3) · D 19.9% · R 79.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.2pp toward R · 2008: -37.2pp · 2024: -59.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+59.3 2020: R+57.7 2016: R+59.3 2012: R+47.4 2008: R+37.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -27.10%
• Current HPI: 203.7471
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-17 Pending — SOMO
• 2026-03-12 Listed $52,000 SOMO
• 2006-05-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2000-09-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1978-07-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $161 · -24.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.