1100 Heavenridge Rd · Bay City, MI 48732

$149,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,297 sqft · SingleFamily · 10 Days on market

Built 1960 7,405 sqft lot Est $162k · 8% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.1/30.0
• ARV discount +10.9/15.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This 3-bedroom, 1-bathroom ranch in Essexville offers an excellent opportunity for buyers seeking great functional space at a practical value. Inside, a large family room provides plenty of space for daily living and casual gatherings. The standout feature of this property is the expansive 4-car garage, which is fully set up to serve as a party room, workshop, or recreation space. It connects easily to the nice backyard and patio area, making it a great layout for outdoor hosting, hobbies, or extra storage. If you are looking for a solid, functional home with hard-to-find garage space in a convenient Essexville location, this property is worth a look. Schedule your tour today to see the pot

Key facts

• Patio area
• 7,405 sq ft lot
• 4 garage spots

Tags

• EXPANSIVE 4-CAR GARAGE
• PATIO AREA

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 4 parking spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sanitary sewer; Natural gas
• Home design: Residential single-story home; Built in 1960; Entry-level rooms (main living areas on entry level)
• Construction: Vinyl siding construction; Crawl and slab foundation
• Exterior features: Vinyl siding; Road frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on entry level (17 x 9)
• Bedrooms: Bedroom 1 on entry level, 10 x 10, carpet; Bedroom 2 on entry level, 10 x 10, vinyl; Bedroom 3 on entry level, approx. 11 wide, vinyl
• Flooring: Carpet in at least one bedroom; Vinyl flooring in living room, dining room and other bedrooms
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on entry level
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Natural gas fuel
• Interior features: Living room on entry level (23 x 14); Dining room on entry level (16 x 13)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room in basement (13 x 12)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $22 ($266/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $132k (12.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $132k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#360 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities D, crime F.
• Essexville-Hampton Public Schools (suburban): math 29% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #217 of 540 in MI (top 40%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 59 active listings in the ZIP; 39 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bay County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $131,913 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.63%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $162,125
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1025 N Scheurmann Rd	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,297 (0%)	4mo	$109,000	$84	86
1089 Heavenridge Rd	0.03mi	3/1.0	1,485 (+14%)	9mo	$219,900	$148	67
500 Princeton St	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,260 (-3%)	5mo	$145,000	$115	66
1069 HEAVENRIDGE Rd	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,470 (+13%)	5mo	$205,900	$140	66
406 Oxford St	0.43mi	3/1.0	1,200 (-8%)	4mo	$150,000	$125	64
310 Burns St	0.65mi	3/1.5	1,320 (+2%)	4mo	$225,000	$170	61
714 Nebobish Ave	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,288 (-1%)	4mo	$69,000	$54	60
300 Princeton St	0.53mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,200 (-8%)	5mo	$59,900	$50	52
407 Harvard St	0.53mi	3/1.0	1,447 (+12%)	6mo	$140,000	$97	51
1708 W Ridge Rd	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,400 (+8%)	1mo	$235,000	$168	48
838 Powell Rd	0.69mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,389 (+7%)	6mo	$93,000	$67	46
1278 N Pine Rd	0.64mi	3/1.0	1,460 (+13%)	6mo	$185,000	$127	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-22,866
• Equity at exit: $22,351

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.57×
• Total profit: $-18,050
• Equity at exit: $12,961

Cash invested: $41,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48732

• Home prices YoY: -21.6%
• Active inventory: 59
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,319 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax from tax record: −$171 /mo · $2,056/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$277
• Net cashflow: $22

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,291

Max offer price $149,900

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $107	-5% $65	+0% $22	+5% $-20	+10% $-63
Rent	-10% $-82	-5% $-30	+0% $22	+5% $74	+10% $126
Rate	-1.0pp $98	-0.5pp $60	base $22	+0.5pp $-17	+1.0pp $-56

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,475
• Closing costs: $4,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $149,900 Active 10 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,900 Active 9 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   status $149,900 Active 8 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   status $149,900 Pending 8 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,900 Active 8 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,900 Active 7 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $149,900 Active 5 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $149,900 Active 4 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   remarks 699-char remark
10. 2026-06-09
    listed $149,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,056 · $171/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,182 · $182/mo
• Expected delta: +$126/yr (+$11/mo · 6.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,830
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,397
• − Property taxes: −$2,056
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,266
• − Management: −$1,266
• − Depreciation: −$4,361
• Taxable loss: −$2,266
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$544
• After-tax cash flow: $810/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Essexville-Hampton Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2613530
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $52,936
• Composite: 33.87/100
• National rank: #5349
• State rank: #217 of 540 in MI

Livability — Bay City

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #360
• US rank: #8912

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Bay County · 36,975 people
• City population: 25,635
• Metro: Bay City, MI
• Population (ZIP): 11,340
• Household income: $57,903
• Rent vs Own: 31.6% rent · 68.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 200.0

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 101,476 people
• By 2030: 98,152 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 89,711 · -11.6%
• By 2050: 80,614 · -20.6%
• By 2075: 60,544 · -40.3%
• By 2100: 41,603 · -59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 15% Lithuanian 11% English 2%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: R (+14.7) · D 42.0% · R 56.7% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -30.0pp toward R · 2008: 15.3pp · 2024: -14.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.7 2020: R+11.6 2016: R+12.6 2012: D+6.0 2008: D+15.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -52.53%
• Current HPI: 191.1777
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Bay City, MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+0.6% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Price Changed $149,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-06-08 Listed $149,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS

Property tax history

+4.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,056 · +0.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.