435 Village Cir SW · Eagle Lake, FL 33880

$137,500

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,120 sqft · Manufactured public records · 9 Days on market

Built 1990 5,998 sqft lot $55/mo HOA · 3% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.6/30.0
• DSCR +9.1/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.0/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

ENJOY FLORIDA LIVING AS IT'S FINEST. .. Welcome yourself home to this 2 Bedroom/ 2 Bath home offering over 1,300 sq ft of comfortable living space and with valuable upgrades, including True Hardwood Floors in the Living Room, Hall and Bedrooms, NEW ROOF 2026 and Newer A/C 2020. Relax and unwind in the large Florida room in the front or the screened-in lanai on the side of the house, ideal for enjoying Florida’s beautiful weather year-round. The property also features a storage shed giving you plenty of room for tools, hobbies, or seasonal items and an inside laundry with washer and dryer included. Additional storage shed behind the lanai for all your lawn equipment. Fully fenced back

Key facts

• Screened-in lanai
• Newer a/c
• True hardwood floors

Tags

• TRUE HARDWOOD FLOORS
• NEW ROOF
• NEWER A/C
• LARGE FLORIDA ROOM
• SCREENED-IN LANAI
• STORAGE SHED

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Unfurnished; Buyer approval required for association
• HOA & community: Monthly HOA fee of $55 (requires approval); Association amenities include clubhouse, pool, and shuffleboard court; Association recreation owned; Deed restrictions; Golf carts allowed; Wheelchair access; Senior community; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Carport with 1 space
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected and available; Cable available; Phone available
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home; One level; Home faces north
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Crawlspace foundation; Built as a manufactured home
• Exterior features: Covered, enclosed and screened patios/porches including rear and side porches; Patio; Porch; Screened areas; Storage; Chain link fencing; Pond access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Range hood; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Wood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Vaulted ceilings; Blinds; Florida room
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $138k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $369 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $138k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#196 in FL, #3,096 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 341 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($56k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $951 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 7 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $76k; list at $138k implies a 81% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $137,500

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.20% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.51%
• DSCR: 1.51
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.47% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.01×
• Total profit: $381
• Equity at exit: $20,502

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.70×
• Total profit: $27,128
• Equity at exit: $11,888

Cash invested: $38,500 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33880

• Home prices YoY: -16.2%
• Rents YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 341
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,645 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$721
• Tax from tax record: −$97 /mo · $1,165/yr
• Insurance: −$57
• HOA: −$55
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$345
• Net cashflow: $369

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,178

Max offer price $137,500

Occupancy floor 73%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,375
• Closing costs: $4,125
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
108 Brad Cir Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1325	$1,720	$1.30	23d	1	0.24mi
449 Red Hawk Loop Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1109	$1,581	$1.43	3d	1	0.49mi
320 Spirit Landings Cir Winter Haven, FL	1.0	1.0	900	$1,295	$1.44	23d	1	1.01mi
233 Kensington View Blvd Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1491	$1,975	$1.32	23d	1	1.07mi
588 Crown Rose Dr Bartow, FL	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,646	$1.22	14d	1	1.49mi
3062 Saint Paul Dr Jan Phyl Village, FL	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,323	$1.20	3d	1	1.50mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $55 · $660/yr

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $137,500 Active 9 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $137,500 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $137,500 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $137,500 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $137,500 Active 4 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   remarks 693-char remark
7. 2026-06-10
   listed $137,500 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,165 · $97/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,165 · $97/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,743
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,702
• − Property taxes: −$1,165
• − Insurance: −$688
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,579
• − Management: −$1,579
• − HOA: −$660
• − Depreciation: −$4,000
• Taxable income: $2,370
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$569
• After-tax cash flow: $3,863/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Eagle Lake

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #196
• US rank: #3096

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 43,371
• Household income: $56,390
• Rent vs Own: 33.4% rent · 66.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1412.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Hispanic / Latino 27% Black 17% Two or more races 14% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11% Puerto Rican 10% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 2% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 21% French/Haitian/Cajun 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -61.41%
• Current HPI: 317.8788
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.47%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+223.5% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Listed $137,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-20 Listed $5,000 NFMLS
• 2025-05-20 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2025-05-11 Listed $5,000 GAMLS
• 2018-12-04 Sold (Public Records) $76,000 Public Records
• 2018-11-30 Sold (MLS) $76,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-10-17 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-10-03 Listed $79,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $66,000 Public Records
• 2015-06-26 Sold (MLS) $66,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-06-14 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-03-22 Listed $69,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-07-28 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-06-10 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-05-11 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-05-11 Price Changed $69,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-01-20 Listed $74,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2002-09-13 Sold (Public Records) $47,000 Public Records
• 1999-03-19 Sold (Public Records) $42,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+9.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,165 · +12.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.