1020 Channel Dr · Marine City, MI 48039

$175,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,132 sqft · Condo · 19 Days on market

Built 1996 $155/sqft · 16% below area Est $208k · 16% under $175/mo HOA · 9% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.7/30.0
• ARV discount +14.6/15.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• DSCR +5.6/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to Mariners Landing. This open floor plan condo offers 2 bedrooms (primary having 2 closets), 1.5 bathrooms, attached garage and full unfinished basement. The spacious living room flows into the dining area and then out onto the deck for peaceful views. Closet near garage and half bath is plumbed for 1st floor laundry. Furnace, A/C and water heater have all been updated. Pets allowed up to 35 lbs. Enjoy the peace of mind knowing all lawn maintenance and snow removal is covered. Just minutes from Downtown and the beautiful St Clair river waterfront, shoppes and restaurants.

Key facts

• $175 HOA
• Garage
• Built 1996

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Subdivision: MARINERS LANDING CONDO; Directions: East off of King (cross street: King)
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with $175 monthly fee

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 1 parking space
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Condominium; Single-story; Ground-level entry; Brick and vinyl siding exterior
• Construction: Brick and vinyl siding construction
• Exterior features: Paved road access; Pets allowed

Interior

• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); No central air
• Interior features: Unfinished basement; Total of 5 rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath condo listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $142 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $175k).
• Recommended offer: $172k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 3.1% in Marine City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#309 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• East China School District (suburban): math 32% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #208 of 540 in MI (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 67 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 232 units permitted in St. Clair County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Clair County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($172k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $172,375 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.49%
• DSCR: 1.16
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $207,625
• List price: $175,000
• Delta: -15.71%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 15 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.61×
• Total profit: $-19,193
• Equity at exit: $26,093

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.91×
• Total profit: $-4,640
• Equity at exit: $15,131

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48039

• Active inventory: 67
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,855 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax from tax record: −$158 /mo · $1,891/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$175
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$390
• Net cashflow: $142

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,675

Max offer price $175,000

Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $241	-5% $192	+0% $142	+5% $93	+10% $43
Rent	-10% $-4	-5% $69	+0% $142	+5% $216	+10% $289
Rate	-1.0pp $230	-0.5pp $187	base $142	+0.5pp $97	+1.0pp $51

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
515 E Saint Clair St Unit 537 Marine City, MI	2.0	1.0	800	$1,000	$1.25	44d	1	0.55mi
121 Washington St Unit 1 Marine City, MI	2.0	1.0	1200	$2,400	$2.00	44d	1	0.76mi
258 S Water St Unit 2 Marine City, MI	3.0	1.0	1200	$2,200	$1.83	44d	1	0.78mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $175 · $2,100/yr
• Likely covers: watersnow removal
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-01
   listed $175,000 Active 587-char remark

   Show marketing remark (587 chars)

   Welcome to Mariners Landing. This open floor plan condo offers 2 bedrooms (primary having 2 closets), 1.5 bathrooms, attached garage and full unfinished basement. The spacious living room flows into the dining area and then out onto the deck for peaceful views. Closet near garage and half bath is plumbed for 1st floor laundry. Furnace, A/C and water heater have all been updated. Pets allowed up to 35 lbs. Enjoy the peace of mind knowing all lawn maintenance and snow removal is covered. Just minutes from Downtown and the beautiful St Clair river waterfront, shoppes and restaurants.

2. 2026-05-01
   listed $175,000 Active 587-char remark

   Show marketing remark (587 chars)

   Welcome to Mariners Landing. This open floor plan condo offers 2 bedrooms (primary having 2 closets), 1.5 bathrooms, attached garage and full unfinished basement. The spacious living room flows into the dining area and then out onto the deck for peaceful views. Closet near garage and half bath is plumbed for 1st floor laundry. Furnace, A/C and water heater have all been updated. Pets allowed up to 35 lbs. Enjoy the peace of mind knowing all lawn maintenance and snow removal is covered. Just minutes from Downtown and the beautiful St Clair river waterfront, shoppes and restaurants.

3. 2026-04-29
   historical $175,000 587-char remark

   Show marketing remark (587 chars)

   Welcome to Mariners Landing. This open floor plan condo offers 2 bedrooms (primary having 2 closets), 1.5 bathrooms, attached garage and full unfinished basement. The spacious living room flows into the dining area and then out onto the deck for peaceful views. Closet near garage and half bath is plumbed for 1st floor laundry. Furnace, A/C and water heater have all been updated. Pets allowed up to 35 lbs. Enjoy the peace of mind knowing all lawn maintenance and snow removal is covered. Just minutes from Downtown and the beautiful St Clair river waterfront, shoppes and restaurants.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,891 · $158/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,293 · $191/mo
• Expected delta: +$402/yr (+$34/mo · 21.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,262
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$1,891
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,781
• − Management: −$1,781
• − HOA: −$2,100
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable loss: −$1,060
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$254
• After-tax cash flow: $1,963/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: East China School District
• NCES district ID: 2612420
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $56,455
• Composite: 34.23/100
• National rank: #5260
• State rank: #208 of 540 in MI

Livability — Marine City

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #309
• US rank: #7617

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Marine City, MI
• Population (ZIP): 7,466

Population outlook (St. Clair County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 154,587 people
• By 2030: 150,031 · -2.9%
• By 2040: 138,177 · -10.6%
• By 2050: 124,390 · -19.5%
• By 2075: 95,825 · -38.0%
• By 2100: 68,672 · -55.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 12% Lithuanian 8% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · St. Clair

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+34.6) · D 32.0% · R 66.6% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -37.3pp toward R · 2008: 2.6pp · 2024: -34.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+34.6 2020: R+30.2 2016: R+31.4 2012: R+7.1 2008: D+2.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -136.09%
• Current HPI: 166.0692
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-19 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2026-05-01 Listed $175,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-01 Listed $175,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-04-29 Coming Soon $175,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS

Property tax history

+1.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,891 · +2.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.