190 Lucky Town Loop · Elmore, AL 36025

$79,999

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,025 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 42 Days on market

Built 1972 0.45 ac lot $78/sqft · 47% below area Est $151k · 47% under ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this charming home located at 190 Lucky Town Loop in Elmore. This inviting residence features a spacious layout with ample natural light, an updated kitchen with modern appliances, and a cozy living area appropriate for relaxation. The property boasts a beautifully landscaped yard, appropriate for outdoor activities. Conveniently situated close to local amenities, this home is a wonderful opportunity for comfortable living. Don't miss the chance to make this your new home!

Key facts

• Landscaped yard
• Updated kitchen
• Local amenities

Tags

• UPDATED KITCHEN
• LANDSCAPED YARD
• LOCAL AMENITIES

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Annual tax amount reported

Exterior

• Parking: Attached carport; Has carport
• Utilities: Public water; Electricity available
• Home design: Single-story home
• Construction: Brick and wood siding exterior; Slab foundation; Built (year reported by owner)
• Exterior features: Porch; City lot (100 x 155)

Interior

• Bedrooms: Bedroom on the first level
• Flooring: Tile
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Tile flooring; Carbon monoxide detector
• Laundry & utility: Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $541 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $78k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#499 in AL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: housing D, schools F, amenities F.
• Elmore County (town): math 27% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #21 of 129 in AL (top 16%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 20 active listings in the ZIP; 92 units permitted in Elmore County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $553 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Elmore County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 42 days — a 3% lower offer ($78k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 70% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $77,599 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 42 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.60% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 29.00%
• DSCR: 2.29
• GRM: 5.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $151,000
• List price: $79,999
• Delta: -40.40%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
398 Hwy 143	0.69mi	2/1.0 (+1)	1,036 (+1%)	0mo	$151,000	$146	61

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.96×
• Total profit: $21,478
• Equity at exit: $11,928

10-year hold

• IRR: 31.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.81×
• Total profit: $62,965
• Equity at exit: $6,917

Cash invested: $22,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 36025

• Home prices YoY: -14.9%
• Active inventory: 20
• Price-to-rent: 5.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,281 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$420
• Tax from tax record: −$18 /mo · $218/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$269
• Net cashflow: $541

Break-even live

Break-even rent $596

Max offer price $79,999

Occupancy floor 53%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $587	-5% $564	+0% $541	+5% $519	+10% $496
Rent	-10% $440	-5% $491	+0% $541	+5% $592	+10% $642
Rate	-1.0pp $582	-0.5pp $562	base $541	+0.5pp $521	+1.0pp $499

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,000
• Closing costs: $2,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   pricedays on market $79,999 Active 42 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $89,999 Active 39 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $89,999 Active 38 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $89,999 Active 37 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $89,999 Active 36 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $89,999 Active 34 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $89,999 Active 33 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $89,999 Active 31 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $89,999 Active 30 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $89,999 Active 29 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $89,999 Active 28 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $89,999 Active 25 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $89,999 Active 24 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    price $89,999 Active 23 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $99,999 Active 23 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $99,999 Active 22 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,999 Active 21 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $99,999 Active 20 DOM
19. 2026-05-10
    listed $99,999 Active 488-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $218 · $18/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $328 · $27/mo
• Expected delta: +$110/yr (+$9/mo · 50.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 70% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,376
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,481
• − Property taxes: −$218
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,230
• − Management: −$1,230
• − Depreciation: −$2,327
• Taxable income: $5,490
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,317
• After-tax cash flow: $5,177/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Elmore County
• NCES district ID: 0101290
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -25.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $54,898
• Composite: 35.27/100
• National rank: #4974
• State rank: #21 of 129 in AL

Livability — Elmore

• Score: 52/100
• State rank: #499
• US rank: #24834

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing D Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Elmore, AL
• Population (ZIP): 7,083

Population outlook (Elmore County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 85,154 people
• By 2030: 86,667 · +1.8%
• By 2040: 89,014 · +4.5%
• By 2050: 90,331 · +6.1%
• By 2075: 96,096 · +12.8%
• By 2100: 95,290 · +11.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (51%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 51% Black 44% Hispanic / Latino 3% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Elmore

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+52.1) · D 23.6% · R 75.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.1pp toward R · 2008: -50.9pp · 2024: -52.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+52.1 2020: R+48.2 2016: R+52.0 2012: R+48.8 2008: R+50.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -25.66%
• Current HPI: 146.5191
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

-10.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Price Changed $89,999 MAAR
• 2026-05-10 Listed $99,999 MAAR

Property tax history

-1.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $218 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.