728 W Sullivan St · Miami, AZ 85539

$99,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,566 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 150 Days on market

Built 1950 4,348 sqft lot $63/sqft · 47% below area Est $187k · 47% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.1/10.0
• Appreciation +3.5/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great starter property in the downtown area of Miami. This property has a large lot and tons of potential for the future.

Key facts

• 4,348 sq ft lot
• 3 parking spots
• Built 1950

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $99k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $343 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $99k).
• Recommended offer: $87k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#289 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Miami Unified District (4211) (rural): math 8% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #221 of 249 in AZ (top 89%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Dr. Charles A. Bejarano Elementary School (238 students, 66% FRL); Lee Kornegay Intermediate School (math 8% / reading 23%, grade F, #864 of 1,109 statewide, top 78%, 200 students, 62% FRL); Miami Junior Senior High School (math 7% / reading 8%, grade F, #358 of 381 statewide, top 94%, 495 students, 49% FRL).
• Market conditions: 31 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 217 units permitted in Gila County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.9%/yr); year-one equity from $684 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Gila County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-2.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 150 days — a 12% lower offer ($87k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $60k; list at $99k implies a 65% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $87,120 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 150 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.31% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.84%
• DSCR: 1.66
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $187,425
• List price: $99,000
• Delta: -47.18%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-2.92% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.22×
• Total profit: $6,127
• Equity at exit: $15,096

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.22×
• Total profit: $33,799
• Equity at exit: $9,135

Cash invested: $27,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85539

• Home prices YoY: -1.4%
• Active inventory: 31
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,300 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$124 /mo · $1,485/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$273
• Net cashflow: $343

Break-even live

Break-even rent $866

Max offer price $99,000

Occupancy floor 69%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $411	-5% $377	+0% $343	+5% $309	+10% $274
Rent	-10% $240	-5% $291	+0% $343	+5% $394	+10% $446
Rate	-1.0pp $393	-0.5pp $368	base $343	+0.5pp $317	+1.0pp $291

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,750
• Closing costs: $2,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1122 Bird St Unit A Miami, AZ	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,300	$1.18	45d	1	0.36mi

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $99,000 Active 150 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $99,000 Active 148 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,000 Active 147 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,000 Active 146 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,000 Active 145 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,000 Active 144 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $99,000 Active 142 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $99,000 Active 141 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,000 Active 138 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $99,000 Active 137 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $99,000 Active 136 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $99,000 Active 135 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $99,000 Active 132 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $99,000 Active 131 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $99,000 Active 130 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,000 Active 129 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,000 Active 128 DOM
18. 2026-01-22
    listed $99,000 Active 121-char remark

    Show marketing remark (121 chars)

    Great starter property in the downtown area of Miami. This property has a large lot and tons of potential for the future.

19. 2024-07-03
    soldstatus $60,000
20. 2024-07-02
    soldstatus $60,000 Closed 121-char remark

    Show marketing remark (121 chars)

    Great starter property in the downtown area of Miami. This property has a large lot and tons of potential for the future.

21. 2024-06-25
    status Pending 121-char remark

    Show marketing remark (121 chars)

    Great starter property in the downtown area of Miami. This property has a large lot and tons of potential for the future.

22. 2024-06-25
    listed $99,000 Active 121-char remark

    Show marketing remark (121 chars)

    Great starter property in the downtown area of Miami. This property has a large lot and tons of potential for the future.

23. 2024-06-24
    soldstatus $60,000 Closed 121-char remark

    Show marketing remark (121 chars)

    Great starter property in the downtown area of Miami. This property has a large lot and tons of potential for the future.

24. 2024-05-14
    status Pending 121-char remark

    Show marketing remark (121 chars)

    Great starter property in the downtown area of Miami. This property has a large lot and tons of potential for the future.

25. 2024-03-21
    listed $99,000 Active 121-char remark

    Show marketing remark (121 chars)

    Great starter property in the downtown area of Miami. This property has a large lot and tons of potential for the future.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,600
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,546
• − Property taxes: −$1,485
• − Insurance: −$495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,248
• − Management: −$1,248
• − Depreciation: −$2,880
• Taxable income: $2,698
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$648
• After-tax cash flow: $3,466/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Miami Unified District (4211)
• NCES district ID: 0405030
• Math proficiency: 8% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 19% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $33,063
• Composite: 10.86/100
• National rank: #9760
• State rank: #221 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Miami

• Score: 53/100
• State rank: #289
• US rank: #24461

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment F Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Miami, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 3,066

Population outlook (Gila County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 50,229 people
• By 2030: 48,202 · -4.0%
• By 2040: 44,101 · -12.2%
• By 2050: 41,041 · -18.3%
• By 2075: 37,536 · -25.3%
• By 2100: 32,485 · -35.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 47% White 39% Two or more races 33% Native American 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 44%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 6% Italian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 12%

Political lean MEDSL · Gila

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.6) · D 30.8% · R 68.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.8pp toward R · 2008: -27.8pp · 2024: -37.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.6 2020: R+34.1 2016: R+32.4 2012: R+26.4 2008: R+27.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -2.92%
• Current HPI: 207.4672
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-22 Listed $99,000 ARMLS
• 2024-07-03 Sold (Public Records) $60,000 Public Records
• 2024-07-02 Sold (MLS) $60,000 ARMLS
• 2024-06-25 Pending — ARMLS
• 2024-06-25 Listed $99,000 ARMLS
• 2024-06-24 Sold (MLS) $60,000 ARMLS
• 2024-05-14 Pending — ARMLS
• 2024-03-21 Listed $99,000 ARMLS

Property tax history

+1.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $183 · +5.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.