16255 N Lago Del Oro Pw Pkwy N · Catalina, AZ 85739

$270,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · Manufactured public records · 132 Days on market

Built 2003 1.00 ac lot $172/sqft · 7% below area Est $290k · 7% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.7/30.0
• ARV discount +10.6/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +6.9/10.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

MOTIVATED SELLER! Discover space, comfort, and scenic views on this beautifully updated 1-acre property. This 3-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home offers 1,568 square feet of well-designed living space and features fresh interior and exterior paint throughout. The open-concept floor plan showcases vaulted ceilings, wood-look flooring, and a neutral color palette that complements any style. The kitchen includes white cabinetry, a pantry, and a center island with breakfast bar seating—ideal for everyday living and entertaining. The spacious primary suite features plush carpet, a walk-in closet, and a private en-suite bath. Solar power enhances energy efficiency and offers long-term savings. Enjoy peaceful mountain views and the freedom of wide-open space. Owner/Agent

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• 1 acre property
• White cabinetry

Tags

• 1 ACRE PROPERTY
• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN
• WHITE CABINETRY
• CENTER ISLAND
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• PRIVATE EN-SUITE BATH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $270k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $903 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $270k).
• Recommended offer: $238k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.3% vs local median 4.3% in Catalina — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#200 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Amphitheater Unified District (4406) (suburban): math 32% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #85 of 249 in AZ (top 34%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 268 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $76k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 132 days — a 12% lower offer ($238k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 24y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $210k; 29% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $237,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 132 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.19% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.33%
• DSCR: 1.64
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $290,000
• List price: $270,000
• Delta: -6.90%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4680 E Woodpecker Ln	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,680 (+7%)	10mo	$299,000	$178	69
16070 N Swan Rd	0.24mi	3/3.5	1,668 (+6%)	22mo	$340,000	$204	54
4640 E Magoo Rd	0.15mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,752 (+12%)	20mo	$353,000	$201	52
16606 N Columbus Blvd	0.67mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,664 (+6%)	2mo	$290,000	$174	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.18×
• Total profit: $13,664
• Equity at exit: $40,258

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.13×
• Total profit: $85,564
• Equity at exit: $23,345

Cash invested: $75,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85739

• Home prices YoY: -34.1%
• Active inventory: 268
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,207 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,416
• Tax from tax record: −$102 /mo · $1,229/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$674
• Net cashflow: $903

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,064

Max offer price $270,000

Occupancy floor 67%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,500
• Closing costs: $8,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
39589 S Summerwood Dr Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	1650	$3,000	$1.82	1d	1	1.12mi
39548 S Summerwood Dr Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.5	1638	$2,700	$1.65	1d	1	1.16mi
61736 E Oakwood Dr Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	1478	$4,300	$2.91	1d	1	1.21mi
63692 E Vacation Dr Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	1709	$2,800	$1.64	10d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $270,000 Active 132 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $270,000 Active 131 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $270,000 Active 130 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $270,000 Active 129 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $270,000 Active 127 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $270,000 Active 124 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $270,000 Active 123 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $270,000 Active 122 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $270,000 Active 121 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $270,000 Active 118 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $270,000 Active 117 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $270,000 Active 116 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    price $270,000 Active 115 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $275,000 Active 115 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $275,000 Active 114 DOM
16. 2026-04-06
    price $275,000 780-char remark

    Show marketing remark (780 chars)

    MOTIVATED SELLER! Discover space, comfort, and scenic views on this beautifully updated 1-acre property. This 3-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home offers 1,568 square feet of well-designed living space and features fresh interior and exterior paint throughout. The open-concept floor plan showcases vaulted ceilings, wood-look flooring, and a neutral color palette that complements any style. The kitchen includes white cabinetry, a pantry, and a center island with breakfast bar seating—ideal for everyday living and entertaining. The spacious primary suite features plush carpet, a walk-in closet, and a private en-suite bath. Solar power enhances energy efficiency and offers long-term savings. Enjoy peaceful mountain views and the freedom of wide-open space. Owner/Agent

17. 2026-02-06
    listed $279,000 Active 780-char remark

    Show marketing remark (780 chars)

    MOTIVATED SELLER! Discover space, comfort, and scenic views on this beautifully updated 1-acre property. This 3-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home offers 1,568 square feet of well-designed living space and features fresh interior and exterior paint throughout. The open-concept floor plan showcases vaulted ceilings, wood-look flooring, and a neutral color palette that complements any style. The kitchen includes white cabinetry, a pantry, and a center island with breakfast bar seating—ideal for everyday living and entertaining. The spacious primary suite features plush carpet, a walk-in closet, and a private en-suite bath. Solar power enhances energy efficiency and offers long-term savings. Enjoy peaceful mountain views and the freedom of wide-open space. Owner/Agent

18. 2026-01-29
    historical
19. 2025-11-21
    price $285,000
20. 2025-09-26
    price $289,000
21. 2025-08-15
    listed $299,000 Active
22. 2025-07-01
    soldstatus $210,000
23. 2021-08-12
    soldstatus $210,000 Closed
24. 2021-08-12
    soldstatus $210,000
25. 2021-06-03
    listed $230,000 Active
26. 2021-03-08
    soldstatus $140,000
27. 2002-10-10
    soldstatus $51,900
28. 2002-07-30
    listed $52,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,229 · $102/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,782 · $148/mo
• Expected delta: +$553/yr (+$46/mo · 45.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,488
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,124
• − Property taxes: −$1,229
• − Insurance: −$1,350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,079
• − Management: −$3,079
• − Depreciation: −$7,855
• Taxable income: $6,772
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,625
• After-tax cash flow: $9,211/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Amphitheater Unified District (4406)
• NCES district ID: 0400680
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $46,524
• Composite: 30.82/100
• National rank: #6135
• State rank: #85 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Catalina

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #200
• US rank: #20345

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Catalina, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 18,749

Population outlook (Pima County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,066,056 people
• By 2030: 1,086,684 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 1,117,160 · +4.8%
• By 2050: 1,149,778 · +7.9%
• By 2075: 1,271,480 · +19.3%
• By 2100: 1,321,160 · +23.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Slovak 4% Portuguese 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 11% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pima

• 2024 margin: D (+15.2) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.1pp toward D · 2008: 6.1pp · 2024: 15.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.2 2020: D+18.7 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -109.24%
• Current HPI: 211.3845
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+419.8% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-06 Price Changed $275,000 MLSSAZ
• 2026-02-06 Listed $279,000 MLSSAZ
• 2026-01-29 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2025-11-21 Price Changed $285,000 MLSSAZ
• 2025-09-26 Price Changed $289,000 MLSSAZ
• 2025-08-15 Listed $299,000 MLSSAZ
• 2025-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $210,000 Public Records
• 2021-08-12 Sold (Public Records) $210,000 Public Records
• 2021-08-12 Sold (MLS) $210,000 MLSSAZ
• 2021-06-03 Listed $230,000 MLSSAZ
• 2021-03-08 Sold (Public Records) $140,000 Public Records
• 2002-10-10 Sold (MLS) $51,900 MLSSAZ
• 2002-07-30 Listed $52,900 MLSSAZ

Property tax history

-1.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,229 · +4.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.