10106 Vern St · Gibsonton, FL 33534

$75,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 777 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 37 Days on market

Built 1987

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +4.5/5.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Approximately quarter-acre lot (Space C / Lot 7) in Gibsonton with existing power, water and septic already on site. Street has brand new water lines and newer utility upgrades, with public sewer now run down the road, adding long-term value to this specific block. Older mobile home and outbuildings are included in the sale AS-IS. This is a good opportunity for someone who wants a private setup close to Tampa with utilities already in place and room to make it their own. Property is part of a larger 3-lot family parcel and this listing is only for the back quarter-acre section. Serious inquiries only, cash or strong financing preferred

Key facts

• Existing power
• Existing septic
• Quarter-acre lot

Tags

• QUARTER-ACRE LOT
• EXISTING POWER
• EXISTING WATER
• EXISTING SEPTIC
• NEW WATER LINES
• NEWER UTILITY UPGRADES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $75k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $75k).
• Recommended offer: $73k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#479 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, commute A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, health & safety F.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.1%/yr); 107 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $519 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($73k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $72,750 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.60% ✓
• Cap rate: 22.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 58.32%
• DSCR: 3.60
• GRM: 3.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 62.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.01×
• Total profit: $63,177
• Equity at exit: $11,183

10-year hold

• IRR: 68.7%
• Equity multiple: 9.84×
• Total profit: $185,695
• Equity at exit: $6,485

Cash invested: $21,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33534

• Home prices YoY: -18.2%
• Rents YoY: 8.1%
• Active inventory: 107
• Price-to-rent: 3.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,948 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$94 /mo · $1,125/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$409
• Net cashflow: $1,021

Break-even live

Break-even rent $656

Max offer price $75,000

Occupancy floor 43%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,072	-5% $1,047	+0% $1,021	+5% $995	+10% $969
Rent	-10% $867	-5% $944	+0% $1,021	+5% $1,098	+10% $1,175
Rate	-1.0pp $1,058	-0.5pp $1,040	base $1,021	+0.5pp $1,001	+1.0pp $981

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,750
• Closing costs: $2,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9015 Hirsch Ct Gibsonton, FL	2.0	1.0	656	$1,750	$2.67	18d	1	0.75mi
9852 Indiana St Gibsonton, FL	2.0	1.0	720	$1,700	$2.36	4d	1	1.01mi
8825 Oak St Riverview, FL	3.0	2.0	1086	$2,500	$2.30	25d	1	1.13mi
8828 Kanawha Rd Riverview, FL	2.0	2.0	950	$1,450	$1.53	25d	1	1.18mi
9407 Riverview Dr Unit A Riverview, FL	1.0	1.0	800	$1,350	$1.69	0d	1	1.38mi
9711 Magnolia View Ct Riverview, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1069	$2,087	$1.95	0d	30	1.43mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $75,000 Active 37 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $75,000 Active 36 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $75,000 Active 35 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $75,000 Active 34 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $75,000 Active 32 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $75,000 Active 31 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $75,000 Active 28 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $75,000 Active 27 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $75,000 Active 26 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $75,000 Active 23 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $75,000 Active 22 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $75,000 Active 21 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $75,000 Active 20 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $75,000 Active 19 DOM
15. 2026-05-12
    listed $75,000 Active 643-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,377
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,201
• − Property taxes: −$1,125
• − Insurance: −$375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,870
• − Management: −$1,870
• − Depreciation: −$2,182
• Taxable income: $11,753
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,821
• After-tax cash flow: $9,427/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hillsborough
• NCES district ID: 1200870
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $50,622
• Composite: 41.6/100
• National rank: #3435
• State rank: #41 of 73 in FL

Livability — Gibsonton

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #479
• US rank: #8752

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A- Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Gibsonton, FL
• County: Hillsborough County · 1,540,968 people
• City population: 17,740
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 17,740
• Household income: $80,484
• Rent vs Own: 33.7% rent · 66.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 487.0

Population outlook (Hillsborough County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,607,022 people
• By 2030: 1,733,968 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 1,979,565 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 2,203,427 · +37.1%
• By 2075: 2,667,893 · +66.0%
• By 2100: 2,891,558 · +79.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 38% White 36% Two or more races 23% Black 19% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13% Puerto Rican 10% Cuban 4% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 3% Russian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Guatemala, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 66% English-only · Spanish 30% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hillsborough

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 50.9% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: 7.1pp · 2024: -3.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.1 2020: D+6.9 2016: D+6.8 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+7.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -72.07%
• Current HPI: 323.4367
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.05%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Listed $75,000 FSBO.com

Property tax history

+13.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,123 · +14.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.