31359 Grants Ln · Carrsville, VA 23315

$199,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,040 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 83 Days on market

Built 1959 0.30 ac lot $192/sqft · 12% below area Est $228k · 12% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.1/15.0
• Cash flow +7.7/30.0
• Appreciation +6.7/10.0
• Schools +5.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.1/5.0
• DSCR +1.8/10.0
• 1% rule +1.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming 3-bedroom, 1-bath ranch-style home featuring a newer roof and updated flooring, both less than three years old. Conveniently located near the interstate for easy commuting. Property is being sold as-is, where-is—great opportunity for investors or buyers looking to add their personal touch.

Key facts

• Newer roof
• Updated flooring
• 0.3 acre lot

Tags

• NEWER ROOF
• UPDATED FLOORING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-232 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $159k (20.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $123k (38.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $123k (38.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 42/100 on livability (#573 in VA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A, cost of living A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Isle Of Wight County Public School District (rural): math 62% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #28 of 131 in VA (top 21%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Carrsville Elementary (math 72% / reading 77%, grade A, #220 of 1,108 statewide, top 22%, 252 students, 48% FRL); Georgie D. Tyler Middle (math 54% / reading 71%, grade B+, #139 of 342 statewide, top 41%, 375 students, 68% FRL); Windsor High (math 62% / reading 82%, grade B+, #134 of 319 statewide, top 45%, 527 students, 39% FRL) — zoned schools average 52% FRL vs 31% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 14 active listings in the ZIP; 257 units permitted in Isle of Wight County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $7k appreciation (3.3% local appreciation)).
• Isle of Wight County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 83 days — a 6% lower offer ($188k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $150k; 33% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1959 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 78% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $123,477 (38.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 83 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 38% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1959 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.62% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.90%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.98%
• DSCR: 0.78
• GRM: 13.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $228,134
• List price: $199,900
• Delta: -12.38%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6443 Carrsville Hwy	0.58mi	4/2.0 (+1)	967 (-7%)	4mo	$225,000	$233	49
31132 Colosse Rd	0.72mi	3/1.5	960 (-8%)	7mo	$225,000	$234	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.31% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.22×
• Total profit: $12,457
• Equity at exit: $93,344

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.09×
• Total profit: $61,000
• Equity at exit: $146,605

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23315

• Home prices YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 14
• Price-to-rent: 13.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,235 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$76 /mo · $913/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$259
• Net cashflow: $-232

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,529

Max offer price $158,881

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-119	-5% $-176	+0% $-232	+5% $-289	+10% $-345
Rent	-10% $-330	-5% $-281	+0% $-232	+5% $-183	+10% $-135
Rate	-1.0pp $-132	-0.5pp $-181	base $-232	+0.5pp $-284	+1.0pp $-337

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 30 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $199,900 Active 83 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,900 Active 80 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,900 Active 79 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,900 Active 78 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,900 Active 77 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,900 Active 75 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,900 Active 71 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,900 Active 70 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $199,900 Active 69 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,900 Active 65 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,900 Active 64 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,900 Active 63 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,900 Active 62 DOM
14. 2026-04-03
    status Active 305-char remark

    Show marketing remark (305 chars)

    Charming 3-bedroom, 1-bath ranch-style home featuring a newer roof and updated flooring, both less than three years old. Conveniently located near the interstate for easy commuting. Property is being sold as-is, where-is—great opportunity for investors or buyers looking to add their personal touch.

15. 2026-04-03
    historical 305-char remark

    Show marketing remark (305 chars)

    Charming 3-bedroom, 1-bath ranch-style home featuring a newer roof and updated flooring, both less than three years old. Conveniently located near the interstate for easy commuting. Property is being sold as-is, where-is—great opportunity for investors or buyers looking to add their personal touch.

16. 2026-03-30
    listed $199,900 Active 305-char remark

    Show marketing remark (305 chars)

    Charming 3-bedroom, 1-bath ranch-style home featuring a newer roof and updated flooring, both less than three years old. Conveniently located near the interstate for easy commuting. Property is being sold as-is, where-is—great opportunity for investors or buyers looking to add their personal touch.

17. 2022-06-27
    soldstatus $149,900
18. 2022-05-13
    status Under Contract
19. 2022-05-10
    price $149,900
20. 2022-04-21
    status Active
21. 2022-04-18
    status Under Contract
22. 2022-03-18
    listed $165,000 Active
23. 2020-04-22
    historical
24. 2020-03-11
    listed $99,900 Active
25. 2019-03-07
    historical
26. 2019-02-21
    listed $114,900 Active
27. 2007-07-11
    soldstatus $56,000
28. 2007-07-11
    soldstatus $56,000
29. 2006-08-25
    listed $94,900
30. 2006-08-25
    listed $94,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $913 · $76/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,639 · $137/mo
• Expected delta: +$726/yr (+$61/mo · 79.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 7/10 Severe 78% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,817
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$913
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,185
• − Management: −$1,185
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable loss: −$6,479
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,555
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,231/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Isle Of Wight County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102010
• Math proficiency: 62% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 73% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $64,756
• Composite: 58.67/100
• National rank: #982
• State rank: #28 of 131 in VA

Livability — Carrsville

• Score: 42/100
• State rank: #573
• US rank: #26989

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Carrsville, VA
• Population (ZIP): 1,599

Population outlook (Isle of Wight County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 39,005 people
• By 2030: 40,089 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 41,703 · +6.9%
• By 2050: 42,745 · +9.6%
• By 2075: 47,222 · +21.1%
• By 2100: 47,810 · +22.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Black 4% Two or more races 3% Native American 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 6% Slovak 4% Iranian 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Isle of Wight

• 2024 margin: R (+19.8) · D 39.6% · R 59.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.4pp toward R · 2008: -13.4pp · 2024: -19.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.8 2020: R+18.4 2016: R+21.0 2012: R+14.7 2008: R+13.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.31%
• Current HPI: 317.4027
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+110.6% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-03 Relisted — REINMLS
• 2026-04-03 Listing Removed — REINMLS
• 2026-03-30 Listed $199,900 REINMLS
• 2022-06-27 Sold (Public Records) $149,900 Public Records
• 2022-05-13 Pending — REINMLS
• 2022-05-10 Price Changed $149,900 REINMLS
• 2022-04-21 Relisted — REINMLS
• 2022-04-18 Pending — REINMLS
• 2022-03-18 Listed $165,000 REINMLS
• 2020-04-22 Listing Removed — REINMLS
• 2020-03-11 Listed $99,900 REINMLS
• 2019-03-07 Listing Removed — REINMLS
• 2019-02-21 Listed $114,900 REINMLS
• 2007-07-11 Sold (MLS) $56,000 CVRMLS
• 2007-07-11 Sold (MLS) $56,000 CVRMLS
• 2006-08-25 Listed $94,900 CVRMLS
• 2006-08-25 Listed $94,900 CVRMLS

Property tax history

+1.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $913 · +4.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.