16225 N 29th St #26 · Phoenix, AZ 85032

$52,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · SingleFamily · 101 Days on market

Built 1998 Average condition $42/sqft · 87% below area ↓ 20% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This charming home has a newer HVAC, is prewired for an alarm, lighted ramp fulfilling ADA specifications, and is located along the back of the park for privacy. Park offers a pool and a clubhouse. Bathrooms need some updating and this is factored into the price.

Key facts

• Lighted ramp
• Clubhouse
• Pool

Tags

• NEWER HVAC
• PREWIRED FOR AN ALARM
• LIGHTED RAMP
• POOL
• CLUBHOUSE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $52k. Condition is rated average.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $869 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $52k).
• Recommended offer: $47k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 26.4% vs local median 3.3% in Phoenix — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#16 in AZ, #3,924 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F.
• Paradise Valley Unified District (4241) (urban): math 39% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #56 of 249 in AZ (top 22%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Palomino Primary School (math 17% / reading 8%, grade F, #944 of 1,109 statewide, top 87%, 575 students, 83% FRL); Palomino Intermediate School (math 7% / reading 19%, grade F, #169 of 218 statewide, top 79%, 435 students, 82% FRL); Paradise Valley High School (math 38% / reading 43%, grade F, #69 of 381 statewide, top 18%, 1,874 students, 30% FRL) — zoned schools average 65% FRL vs 29% district-wide (36 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 22% at this address vs 42% district-wide (-21 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Paradise Valley Unified District (4241) average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.5%/yr); 340 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $360 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 101 days — a 9% lower offer ($47k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (28%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $47,320 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 101 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.99% ✓
• Cap rate: 26.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 71.66%
• DSCR: 4.19
• GRM: 2.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $397,409
• List price: $52,000
• Delta: -86.92%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2922 E LE Marche Ave	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,344 (+8%)	0mo	$375,000	$279	81
2936 E Beck Ln	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,280 (+3%)	6mo	$319,900	$250	69
3302 E Tierra Buena Ln	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,193 (-4%)	1mo	$405,000	$339	64
3005 E Danbury Rd	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,372 (+10%)	4mo	$380,000	$277	58
3225 E Monica Ave	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,259 (+1%)	13mo	$479,000	$380	53
2335 E Beverly Ln	0.70mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,315 (+5%)	1mo	$333,400	$254	53
16646 N 35th St	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,322 (+6%)	5mo	$470,000	$356	51
2540 E Hartford Ave	0.70mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,240 (-1%)	12mo	$410,000	$331	51
2834 E Michael Dr	0.65mi	3/1.5	1,322 (+6%)	13mo	$325,000	$246	47
3313 E Waltann Ln	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,371 (+10%)	14mo	$399,900	$292	40
2326 E Paradise Ln	0.73mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,376 (+10%)	7mo	$280,000	$203	34
2640 E Campo Bello Dr	0.73mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,112 (-11%)	12mo	$410,000	$369	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 67.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.91×
• Total profit: $42,416
• Equity at exit: $7,753

10-year hold

• IRR: 71.1%
• Equity multiple: 7.23×
• Total profit: $90,721
• Equity at exit: $4,496

Cash invested: $14,560 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85032

• Rents YoY: -1.5%
• Active inventory: 340
• Price-to-rent: 2.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,555 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$273
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$65 /mo · $780/yr
• Insurance: −$22
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$327
• Net cashflow: $869

Break-even live

Break-even rent $455

Max offer price $52,000

Occupancy floor 39%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $905	-5% $887	+0% $869	+5% $852	+10% $834
Rent	-10% $747	-5% $808	+0% $869	+5% $931	+10% $992
Rate	-1.0pp $896	-0.5pp $883	base $869	+0.5pp $856	+1.0pp $842

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $13,000
• Closing costs: $1,560
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2807 E Paradise Ln Unit 103 Phoenix, AZ	3.0	3.0	1124	$1,475	$1.31	25d	1	0.16mi
3003 E Kings Ave Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1445	$2,800	$1.94	6d	1	0.16mi
2827 E Le Marche Ave Unit 203 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	1200	$1,450	$1.21	4d	1	0.17mi
2827 E Le Marche Ave Unit 103 Phoenix, AZ	3.0	3.0	1200	$1,800	$1.50	12d	1	0.17mi
16225 N 30th St #9 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.5	968	$1,350	$1.39	25d	1	0.17mi
16402 N 31st St #119 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	933	$1,375	$1.47	19d	1	0.17mi
16402 N 31st St #119 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	933	$1,375	$1.47	5d	1	0.17mi
2826 E Monte Cristo Ave Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	929	$1,295	$1.39	16d	1	0.19mi
2826 E Monte Cristo Ave Unit 203 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	929	$1,295	$1.39	18d	1	0.19mi
3027 E Grandview Rd Unit 3027-B Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	912	$1,375	$1.51	9d	1	0.19mi
2807 E Le Marche Ave Unit 103 Phoenix, AZ	3.0	3.0	1157	$1,099	$0.95	25d	1	0.20mi
2807 E Le Marche Ave Unit 103 Phoenix, AZ	3.0	3.0	1157	$1,074	$0.93	16d	1	0.20mi
2807 E Monte Cristo Ave Unit 102 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	900	$865	$0.96	25d	1	0.23mi
2844 E Marconi Ave Unit 101 Phoenix, AZ	3.0	3.0	1123	$1,550	$1.38	23d	1	0.23mi
2854 E Phelps Rd Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1488	$1,811	$1.22	23d	1	0.25mi
16021 N 30th St #119 Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.5	1426	$1,950	$1.37	25d	1	0.26mi
2837 E Marconi Ave Unit 203 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	900	$975	$1.08	25d	1	0.26mi
16437 N 31st St Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0	687	$1,049	$1.53	4d	4	0.27mi
2819 E Marconi Ave Unit 201 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	900	$950	$1.06	25d	1	0.28mi
2846 E Kathleen Rd Unit 103 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.5	1106	$949	$0.86	25d	1	0.28mi
2846 E Kathleen Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	1106	$949	$0.86	25d	1	0.28mi
2807 E Marconi Ave Unit 101 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	967	$975	$1.01	0d	1	0.28mi
2822 E Kathleen Rd Unit 203 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	850	$1,100	$1.29	6d	1	0.28mi
16815 N 29th St Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	850	$1,199	$1.41	25d	1	0.30mi
16815 N 29th St Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	850	$1,050	$1.23	18d	3	0.30mi
16816 N 29th St Apt 202 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	800	$1,100	$1.38	9d	1	0.31mi
2821 E Kathleen Rd Unit 101 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.5	1106	$900	$0.81	25d	1	0.31mi
16815 N 29th St Apt 146 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	850	$999	$1.18	25d	1	0.31mi
2821 E Kathleen Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	1106	$900	$0.81	25d	1	0.31mi
16015 N 30th St #123 Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.5	1426	$1,950	$1.37	23d	1	0.32mi
15801 N 29th St #1 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	1108	$1,650	$1.49	23d	1	0.35mi
15635 N 29th St Phoenix, AZ	4.0	2.0	1417	$2,075	$1.46	0d	1	0.36mi
2834 E Tracy Ln #1 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.5	1254	$1,550	$1.24	25d	1	0.37mi
2712 E Juniper Ave Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1435	$1,435	$1.00	6d	1	0.37mi
16645 N 31st St Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	483	$1,595	$3.30	3d	6	0.38mi
2616 E Monte Cristo Ave Unit 2624-4 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	825	$999	$1.21	6d	1	0.38mi
2616 E Monte Cristo Ave Unit 2624-2 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	825	$1,095	$1.33	25d	1	0.38mi
15677 N 29th St Phoenix, AZ	4.0	2.0	1500	$2,050	$1.37	3d	1	0.39mi
2845 E Tracy Ln #4 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	780	$1,750	$2.24	12d	1	0.40mi
15626 N 29th Way Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.5	1271	$2,150	$1.69	25d	1	0.40mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $52,000 Active 101 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $52,000 Active 98 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $52,000 Active 97 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $52,000 Active 96 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $52,000 Active 95 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $52,000 Active 93 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $52,000 Active 92 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $52,000 Active 89 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $52,000 Active 88 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $52,000 Active 87 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $52,000 Active 84 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $52,000 Active 83 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $52,000 Active 82 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $52,000 Active 81 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $52,000 Active 80 DOM
16. 2026-05-04
    price $52,000 264-char remark

    Show marketing remark (264 chars)

    This charming home has a newer HVAC, is prewired for an alarm, lighted ramp fulfilling ADA specifications, and is located along the back of the park for privacy. Park offers a pool and a clubhouse. Bathrooms need some updating and this is factored into the price.

17. 2026-05-01
    price $55,000 264-char remark

    Show marketing remark (264 chars)

    This charming home has a newer HVAC, is prewired for an alarm, lighted ramp fulfilling ADA specifications, and is located along the back of the park for privacy. Park offers a pool and a clubhouse. Bathrooms need some updating and this is factored into the price.

18. 2026-04-21
    price $62,000 264-char remark

    Show marketing remark (264 chars)

    This charming home has a newer HVAC, is prewired for an alarm, lighted ramp fulfilling ADA specifications, and is located along the back of the park for privacy. Park offers a pool and a clubhouse. Bathrooms need some updating and this is factored into the price.

19. 2026-04-11
    price $68,000 264-char remark

    Show marketing remark (264 chars)

    This charming home has a newer HVAC, is prewired for an alarm, lighted ramp fulfilling ADA specifications, and is located along the back of the park for privacy. Park offers a pool and a clubhouse. Bathrooms need some updating and this is factored into the price.

20. 2026-03-12
    listed $72,000 Active 264-char remark

    Show marketing remark (264 chars)

    This charming home has a newer HVAC, is prewired for an alarm, lighted ramp fulfilling ADA specifications, and is located along the back of the park for privacy. Park offers a pool and a clubhouse. Bathrooms need some updating and this is factored into the price.

21. 2026-02-02
    historical
22. 2025-08-01
    listed $65,000 Active
23. 2025-07-30
    historical

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,666
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,913
• − Property taxes: −$780
• − Insurance: −$260
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,493
• − Management: −$1,493
• − Depreciation: −$1,513
• Taxable income: $10,214
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,451
• After-tax cash flow: $7,982/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Average 55/100 Moderate rehab

This home requires moderate renovations to improve its condition and value. Key areas for improvement include updating countertops, painting interior walls, and replacing carpeted flooring.

Repairs flagged

• Major Kitchen countertops — Worn and need replacement
• Major Bathroom tub/shower — Needs replacement due to age and wear
• Moderate Exterior siding — Weathered and could benefit from repainting

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal
• Rental Replace carpeted flooring — New flooring improves tenant satisfaction
• Both Update kitchen countertops — Fresh countertops improve both resale and rental value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Kitchen countertops · Worn and need replacement	Major	$15,000–50,000
Bathroom tub/shower · Needs replacement due to age and wear	Major	$15,000–50,000
Exterior siding · Weathered and could benefit from repainting	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$33,000–115,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal ↑
• Rental Replace carpeted flooring — New flooring improves tenant satisfaction ↑
• Both Update kitchen countertops — Fresh countertops improve both resale and rental value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Paradise Valley Unified District (4241)
• NCES district ID: 0405930
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $64,106
• Composite: 37.89/100
• National rank: #4316
• State rank: #56 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Phoenix

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #16
• US rank: #3924

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B- Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Phoenix, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 1,500,198
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 70,839
• Household income: $78,643
• Rent vs Own: 42.2% rent · 57.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 2887.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 17% Asian 4% Black 3% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Slovak 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 21% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -488.65%
• Current HPI: 339.4181
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.46%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-20.0% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $52,000 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $55,000 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $62,000 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-11 Price Changed $68,000 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-12 Listed $72,000 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-02 Listing Removed — PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-01 Listed $65,000 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-30 Coming Soon — PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid