3435 Marfargoa Rd #74 · Stockton, CA 95215

$110,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,210 sqft · Manufactured · 21 Days on market

Built 1970 Good condition Est $108k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +6.5/15.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

All-Age Park!! This 2-Bedroom, 2-Bathroom Manufactured home offers comfortable living with a spacious primary bedroom that includes tow closets, one of them a walk-in, and a private bathroom. The Kitchen provides plenty of counter space and storage, with an easy connection to the dining and living areas. Additional features include indoor laundry hookups, a covered two-car carport, and access to the community pool.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Covered carport
• Private bathroom

Tags

• PRIMARY BEDROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• PRIVATE BATHROOM
• COUNTER SPACE
• INDOOR LAUNDRY HOOKUPS
• COVERED CARPORT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in a mobile home park (Mapache Mobile Home Park space 74)
• Financial info: Land lease: No (land lease amount listed separately)
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking
• Utilities: Utilities: Other; Electric: Other; Sewer: Other; Water: Other
• Home design: Manufactured in-park double-wide; Built in 1970
• Construction: Wood skirting; Other roof type; Lancer make
• Exterior features: Corner site; Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Breakfast area; Dining and family room combo
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Shower stall(s)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Fireplace heating; Ceiling fan(s); Wall unit(s)
• Interior features: Electric fireplace; Covered deck; Pet-friendly
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer hookups in kitchen

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $110k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $668 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $110k).
• Recommended offer: $108k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.3% vs local median 3.6% in Stockton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#734 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A, amenities A-; Watch: employment C-, schools D-, crime F.
• Stockton Unified (urban): math 23% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #295 of 517 in CA (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 78% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 94 active listings in the ZIP; 3,779 units permitted in San Joaquin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $761 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Joaquin County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($108k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $108,350 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.72% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 28.62%
• DSCR: 2.27
• GRM: 4.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $107,690
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3435 Marfargoa Rd #27	0.01mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,120 (-7%)	7mo	$100,000	$89	76

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.81×
• Total profit: $24,804
• Equity at exit: $16,401

10-year hold

• IRR: 28.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.49×
• Total profit: $76,682
• Equity at exit: $9,511

Cash invested: $30,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95215

• Home prices YoY: -1.4%
• Active inventory: 94
• Price-to-rent: 4.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,892 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$577
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$138 /mo · $1,650/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$397
• Net cashflow: $668

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,046

Max offer price $110,000

Occupancy floor 60%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $744	-5% $706	+0% $668	+5% $630	+10% $592
Rent	-10% $519	-5% $593	+0% $668	+5% $743	+10% $818
Rate	-1.0pp $724	-0.5pp $696	base $668	+0.5pp $640	+1.0pp $611

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,500
• Closing costs: $3,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $110,000 Active 21 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $110,000 Active 20 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $110,000 Active 19 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $110,000 Active 18 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $110,000 Active 16 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $110,000 Active 13 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $110,000 Active 12 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $110,000 Active 11 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $110,000 Active 10 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $110,000 Active 7 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $110,000 Active 6 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $110,000 Active 5 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $110,000 Active 4 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $110,000 Active 3 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 27 unhealthy d/yr today · 29 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,707
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,162
• − Property taxes: −$1,650
• − Insurance: −$1,348
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,817
• − Management: −$1,817
• − Depreciation: −$3,200
• Taxable income: $6,714
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,611
• After-tax cash flow: $6,407/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This manufactured home is in good condition with cosmetic updates needed to enhance its curb appeal and interior aesthetics.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Kitchen cabinets — Worn appearance
• Minor Kitchen countertops — Need cleaning

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Replace kitchen cabinets — Modern cabinets would significantly improve the kitchen's appearance and functionality
• Both Replace kitchen countertops — New countertops would improve functionality and aesthetics

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Kitchen cabinets · Worn appearance	Minor	$500–3,000
Kitchen countertops · Need cleaning	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$1,000–6,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Replace kitchen cabinets — Modern cabinets would significantly improve the kitchen's appearance and functionality ↑
• Both Replace kitchen countertops — New countertops would improve functionality and aesthetics ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Stockton Unified
• NCES district ID: 0638010
• Math proficiency: 23% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▲ 16.00%
• Median HH income: $37,563
• Composite: 28.65/100
• National rank: #6701
• State rank: #295 of 517 in CA

Livability — Stockton

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #734
• US rank: #21638

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 332,006
• Population (ZIP): 26,032

Population outlook (San Joaquin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 796,965 people
• By 2030: 828,849 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 885,611 · +11.1%
• By 2050: 929,798 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 994,578 · +24.8%
• By 2100: 971,291 · +21.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 65% Two or more races 23% White 23% Black 4% Asian 3% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 61%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Lithuanian 1% Russian 1%
• Foreign-born: 28% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 46% English-only · Spanish 51% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Joaquin

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 48.9% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.6pp toward R · 2008: 10.7pp · 2024: -0.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+0.9 2020: D+13.9 2016: D+12.9 2012: D+8.9 2008: D+10.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -16.84%
• Current HPI: 1200.44
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B