5310 Willow Crk · Haines City, FL 33844

$299,780

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,607 sqft · Land · 136 Days on market

Built 2026 4,400 sqft lot $50/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

An open floorplan that makes entertaining easy in the open kitchen, dining, and great room that flow to the patio. The primary suite is tucked in the rear of the home offering plenty of privacy and features a spacious walk-in closet and shower.

Key facts

• Dog parks
• Open floorplan
• Pool and cabana

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• ENERGY-EFFICIENT HOME
• SPACIOUS WALK-IN CLOSET
• RESORT-STYLE AMENITIES
• POOL AND CABANA
• DOG PARKS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Home warranty included; Irrigation equipment installed; Green features: MERV 10+ air filters; low/no-VOC cabinets, counters, flooring, paint/finish; energy-efficient appliances, HVAC, insulation, roof, thermostat, water heater and windows; low-flow fixtures
• Financial info: Other annual assessment amount listed
• HOA & community: HOA: Crosswinds East Homeowners Association, Inc (monthly HOA approx. $50.31; quarterly fee $150.92); Community amenities include park, pool, trails, sidewalks and street lights; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage with 15x20 dimensions; Driveway; Garage door opener
• Security: Security system; Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available; Electricity connected; Phone available; Sewer connected; Underground utilities; Water connected; Fire hydrant nearby
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; Facing south; Under construction (projected completion: 2026-02-09); New construction; Meritage Homes builder, Acadia model
• Construction: Block, cement siding, stucco and frame construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Builder license CGC1516367
• Exterior features: Covered front porch; Patio; Sidewalk; Sliding doors; Drip irrigation; Florida-friendly/native landscaping

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Stone countertops
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Heat pump; Central air
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Split bedroom layout; Stone counters; Thermostat; Walk-in closets; Window treatments; ENERGY STAR qualified windows; Security system; Smoke detectors
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry room; Washer; Dryer; Electric water heater; Exhaust fan

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-218 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $268k (10.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $241k (19.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $241k (19.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#285 in FL, #4,575 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Eastside Elementary School (math 33% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,854 of 2,144 statewide, top 87%, 615 students, 66% FRL); Shelley S. Boone Middle School (math 25% / reading 25%, grade F, #517 of 571 statewide, top 91%, 1,403 students, 52% FRL); Haines City Senior High School (math 12% / reading 32%, grade F, #544 of 667 statewide, top 82%, 2,700 students, 58% FRL) — zoned schools at 59% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 26% at this address vs 41% district-wide (-15 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Polk average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 1344 active listings in the ZIP; 35 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,410/mo this rent would consume 45% of the median local household income ($64k/yr) (locally 1107% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 136 days — a 12% lower offer ($264k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $29k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $241,004 (19.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 136 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.42%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.11%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.16% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.20×
• Total profit: $-66,762
• Equity at exit: $44,698

10-year hold

• IRR: -24.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.11×
• Total profit: $-93,051
• Equity at exit: $25,919

Cash invested: $83,938 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33844

• Home prices YoY: -26.7%
• Rents YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 1344
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,410 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,572
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$375 /mo · $4,497/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$50
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$506
• Net cashflow: $-218

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,686

Max offer price $268,267

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-11	-5% $-114	+0% $-218	+5% $-321	+10% $-425
Rent	-10% $-408	-5% $-313	+0% $-218	+5% $-123	+10% $-27
Rate	-1.0pp $-67	-0.5pp $-142	base $-218	+0.5pp $-295	+1.0pp $-374

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,945
• Closing costs: $8,993
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 35 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5009 Katrina Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1840	$2,500	$1.36	25d	1	0.04mi
5153 Green Belt Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1824	$2,300	$1.26	16d	1	0.11mi
5157 Green Belt Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	3.0	2109	$2,900	$1.38	5d	1	0.11mi
5177 Green Belt Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	3.0	2109	$2,920	$1.38	4d	1	0.11mi
5193 Green Belt Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1824	$2,099	$1.15	25d	1	0.12mi
4770 Katrina Dr Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	2109	$2,000	$0.95	25d	1	0.16mi
4746 Katrina Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1818	$2,095	$1.15	25d	1	0.16mi
4813 Katrina Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	2000	$2,000	$1.00	25d	1	0.21mi
914 Princess Sabal Pt Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1677	$1,775	$1.06	16d	1	0.33mi
1433 Princess Tree Ct Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1828	$1,999	$1.09	25d	1	0.42mi
3910 Amers Loop Haines City, FL	5.0	2.5	2112	$2,600	$1.23	25d	1	0.50mi
3898 Amers Loop Haines City, FL	4.0	2.5	1874	$2,150	$1.15	25d	1	0.51mi
3874 Amers Loop Haines City, FL	4.0	2.5	1874	$2,130	$1.14	5d	1	0.54mi
2203 Pigeon Plum Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	3.0	1887	$2,190	$1.16	12d	1	0.59mi
4156 Hummock Pl Haines City, FL	3.0	2.5	1548	$1,850	$1.20	25d	1	0.65mi
3754 King Hill Dr Haines City, FL	3.0	2.5	1720	$1,800	$1.05	25d	1	0.66mi
1950 Pond Pine Ct Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1939	$1,975	$1.02	25d	1	0.71mi
621 Sand Pine Ln Haines City, FL	4.0	2.5	2040	$2,350	$1.15	12d	1	0.74mi
1276 Tupelo Trl Haines City, FL	4.0	3.0	1900	$1,895	$1.00	13d	1	0.75mi
1361 Current Pl Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1630	$2,100	$1.29	25d	1	0.84mi
429 Silver Palm Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1625	$1,990	$1.22	21d	1	0.86mi
1462 Sea Glass Rd Haines City, FL	4.0	2.5	2168	$2,200	$1.01	25d	1	0.92mi
1138 Foreshore Ln Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1734	$2,200	$1.27	25d	1	0.94mi
202 Hidden Lake Loop Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1981	$1,905	$0.96	13d	1	0.94mi
148 Summerlin Loop Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1579	$1,850	$1.17	16d	1	0.94mi
333 Hidden Lake Loop Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1909	$1,985	$1.04	13d	1	0.97mi
299 Bottle Brush Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1763	$2,300	$1.30	25d	1	0.97mi
167 Hidden Lake Loop Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1981	$2,020	$1.02	21d	1	1.00mi
1105 Lexington Ln Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	2123	$1,995	$0.94	21d	1	1.03mi
117 Hidden Lake Loop Haines City, FL	4.0	2.5	2099	$2,085	$0.99	25d	1	1.04mi
120 Hidden Lake Loop Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1909	$2,020	$1.06	15d	1	1.06mi
1364 Conch Key Ln Davenport, FL	3.0	2.0	1485	$2,150	$1.45	5d	1	1.07mi
432 Summer Grove Ln Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1286	$1,850	$1.44	25d	1	1.13mi
239 Summerlin Ln Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	2168	$2,300	$1.06	25d	1	1.16mi
1053 Ambleside Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	3.0	2000	$2,550	$1.27	25d	1	1.41mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $50 · $600/yr

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-08
   statusdays on market $299,780 Pending 136 DOM
2. 2026-06-07
   days on market $299,780 Active 135 DOM
3. 2026-06-05
   days on market $299,780 Active 132 DOM
4. 2026-06-03
   days on market $299,780 Active 130 DOM
5. 2026-06-01
   days on market $299,780 Active 129 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $299,780 Active 128 DOM
7. 2026-05-23
   price $319,780 244-char remark

   Show marketing remark (244 chars)

   An open floorplan that makes entertaining easy in the open kitchen, dining, and great room that flow to the patio. The primary suite is tucked in the rear of the home offering plenty of privacy and features a spacious walk-in closet and shower.

8. 2026-05-18
   price $319,780
9. 2026-04-25
   status Active 244-char remark

   Show marketing remark (244 chars)

   An open floorplan that makes entertaining easy in the open kitchen, dining, and great room that flow to the patio. The primary suite is tucked in the rear of the home offering plenty of privacy and features a spacious walk-in closet and shower.

10. 2026-04-25
    historical 244-char remark

    Show marketing remark (244 chars)

    An open floorplan that makes entertaining easy in the open kitchen, dining, and great room that flow to the patio. The primary suite is tucked in the rear of the home offering plenty of privacy and features a spacious walk-in closet and shower.

11. 2026-04-15
    price $324,780

    Show marketing remark (244 chars)

    An open floorplan that makes entertaining easy in the open kitchen, dining, and great room that flow to the patio. The primary suite is tucked in the rear of the home offering plenty of privacy and features a spacious walk-in closet and shower.

12. 2026-04-15
    price $324,780 244-char remark

    Show marketing remark (244 chars)

    An open floorplan that makes entertaining easy in the open kitchen, dining, and great room that flow to the patio. The primary suite is tucked in the rear of the home offering plenty of privacy and features a spacious walk-in closet and shower.

13. 2026-04-03
    status Active 244-char remark

    Show marketing remark (244 chars)

    An open floorplan that makes entertaining easy in the open kitchen, dining, and great room that flow to the patio. The primary suite is tucked in the rear of the home offering plenty of privacy and features a spacious walk-in closet and shower.

14. 2026-03-03
    price $328,580
15. 2026-02-26
    price $327,250
16. 2026-01-23
    listed $328,580 Active
17. 2025-10-24
    historical 244-char remark

    Show marketing remark (244 chars)

    An open floorplan that makes entertaining easy in the open kitchen, dining, and great room that flow to the patio. The primary suite is tucked in the rear of the home offering plenty of privacy and features a spacious walk-in closet and shower.

18. 2025-10-22
    listed $328,580 Active 244-char remark

    Show marketing remark (244 chars)

    An open floorplan that makes entertaining easy in the open kitchen, dining, and great room that flow to the patio. The primary suite is tucked in the rear of the home offering plenty of privacy and features a spacious walk-in closet and shower.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,920
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,792
• − Property taxes: −$4,497
• − Insurance: −$1,499
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,314
• − Management: −$2,314
• − HOA: −$600
• − Depreciation: −$8,721
• Taxable loss: −$7,816
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,876
• After-tax cash flow: $-738/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Haines City

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #285
• US rank: #4575

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Haines City, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 51,255
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 51,255
• Household income: $63,650
• Rent vs Own: 29.6% rent · 70.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1107.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 48% White 31% Black 18% Two or more races 12% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19% Puerto Rican 19% Cuban 1% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 4% Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 55% English-only · Spanish 39% French/Haitian/Cajun 4% Other Indo-European 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.94%
• Current HPI: 291.0798
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.16%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-2.7% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-23 Price Changed $319,780 Zillow
• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $319,780 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-25 Relisted — Zillow
• 2026-04-25 Delisted — Zillow
• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $324,780 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $324,780 Zillow
• 2026-04-03 Relisted — Zillow
• 2026-03-03 Price Changed $328,580 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-26 Price Changed $327,250 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-23 Listed $328,580 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-24 Delisted — Zillow
• 2025-10-22 Listed $328,580 Zillow