143 Waterman Ln · Lakehills, TX 78063

$139,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 952 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 28 Days on market

Built 1984 0.91 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.2/10.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Spacious country living on . 91 acres with plenty of room to enjoy the outdoors! This well-maintained manufactured home offers the perfect blend of comfort and privacy, featuring a private well, septic system, and electricity already in place. Enjoy the peaceful setting, wide open land, and great location with endless possibilities for outdoor living, parking, gardening, or future improvements. A great opportunity for those looking for space, convenience, and quiet country charm.

Key facts

• Private well
• Outdoor living
• Wide open land

Tags

• PRIVATE WELL
• SEPTIC SYSTEM
• OUTDOOR LIVING
• WIDE OPEN LAND

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Built by Sunrizon Homes, Inc.
• HOA & community: Subdivision: MEDINA RIVER RANCH

Exterior

• Utilities: Private well; Septic
• Home design: Pre-owned home; Approximately 42 years old
• Construction: Other building exterior (see remarks); Other foundation (see remarks); Other roof type (see remarks)
• Exterior features: Subdivision: MEDINA RIVER RANCH

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen (14 x 16); Stove/Range; Refrigerator; Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom with walk-in closet and full bath (14 x 16); Second bedroom (14 x 14)
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; Primary bath with tub/shower combination and single vanity (14 x 10)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning; Window air conditioning (2 units)
• Interior features: One living area; Utility room inside; High-speed internet available; Some window coverings remain; Walk-in closets
• Laundry & utility: Washer connection; Dryer connection; Utility room inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $233 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $140k).
• Recommended offer: $138k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.3% vs local median 2.3% in Lakehills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#963 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Bandera ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #500 of 826 in TX (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hill Country El (math 47% / reading 46%, grade D-, #1,080 of 4,322 statewide, top 25%, 483 students, 62% FRL); Bandera H S (math 22% / reading 46%, grade F, #1,002 of 1,632 statewide, top 62%, 713 students, 48% FRL).
• Market conditions: 267 active listings in the ZIP; 6 units permitted in Bandera County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $967 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($138k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 58% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $137,801 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.29%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.13%
• DSCR: 1.32
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.80×
• Total profit: $-7,860
• Equity at exit: $20,860

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.31×
• Total profit: $12,183
• Equity at exit: $12,096

Cash invested: $39,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78063

• Home prices YoY: -31.6%
• Active inventory: 267
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,442 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$115 /mo · $1,378/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$303
• Net cashflow: $233

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,148

Max offer price $139,900

Occupancy floor 79%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,975
• Closing costs: $4,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $139,900 Active 28 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $139,900 Active 27 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $139,900 Active 26 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $139,900 Active 25 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $139,900 Active 23 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $139,900 Active 19 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $139,900 Active 17 DOM
8. 2026-06-04
   days on market $139,900 Active 14 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $139,900 Active 13 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $139,900 Active 12 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    statusdays on market $139,900 Active 11 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $139,900 New 10 DOM
13. 2026-05-21
    listed $139,900 New
14. 1993-12-06
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,378 · $115/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,560 · $213/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,182/yr (+$98/mo · 85.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 58% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,310
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,837
• − Property taxes: −$1,378
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,385
• − Management: −$1,385
• − Depreciation: −$4,070
• Taxable income: $556
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$133
• After-tax cash flow: $2,660/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bandera ISD
• NCES district ID: 4809360
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $48,771
• Composite: 30.61/100
• National rank: #6194
• State rank: #500 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lakehills

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #963
• US rank: #17024

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lakehills, TX
• City population: 10,594
• Population (ZIP): 10,594

Population outlook (Bandera County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 22,614 people
• By 2030: 23,102 · +2.2%
• By 2040: 23,489 · +3.9%
• By 2050: 23,264 · +2.9%
• By 2075: 23,607 · +4.4%
• By 2100: 22,265 · -1.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 18% Two or more races 15%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Romanian 3% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 9% German/W. Germanic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Bandera

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.9) · D 18.6% · R 80.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.5pp toward R · 2008: -50.4pp · 2024: -61.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.9 2020: R+59.4 2016: R+63.0 2012: R+59.0 2008: R+50.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -87.38%
• Current HPI: 189.1086
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Listed $139,900 LERA
• 1993-12-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,378 · +6.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.