8415 Hearth Dr #06 · Houston, TX 77054

$89,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,040 sqft · Condo · 162 Days on market

Built 2016 $86/sqft · 7% below area Est $96k · 7% under $435/mo HOA · 35% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +10.8/15.0
• Cash flow +8.9/30.0
• 1% rule +8.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Appreciation +2.7/10.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming ground-floor condo featuring 2 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms, conveniently located near the Texas Medical Center and NRG Stadium. Situated within a gated community, this home offers easy access to major freeways, dining, shopping, and public transportation. The unit has been recently updated and is move-in ready, with a functional layout and comfortable living spaces. Ideal for those seeking low-maintenance living in a well-connected and established area of Houston.

Key facts

• Gated community
• Move-in ready
• Ground-floor condo

Tags

• GROUND-FLOOR CONDO
• GATED COMMUNITY
• EASY ACCESS TO MAJOR FREEWAYS
• MOVE-IN READY
• LOW-MAINTENANCE LIVING
• WELL-CONNECTED AREA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $89k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-137 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $69k (22.4% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $89k).
• Recommended offer: $69k (22.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Longfellow El (math 12% / reading 27%, grade F, #3,583 of 4,322 statewide, top 86%, 682 students, 75% FRL); Pershing Middle (math 36% / reading 49%, grade D-, #553 of 1,662 statewide, top 34%, 1,390 students, 60% FRL); Bellaire H S (math 45% / reading 62%, grade C-, #428 of 1,632 statewide, top 27%, 3,170 students, 48% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.8%/yr); 272 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $615 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 162 days — a 12% lower offer ($78k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 13y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; HOA is 35% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $69,106 (22.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 162 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
9. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
10. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
11. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
12. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
13. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.39% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.34%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.42%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $96,013
• List price: $89,000
• Delta: -7.30%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -34.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.06×
• Total profit: $-26,483
• Equity at exit: $13,270

10-year hold

• IRR: -95.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.89×
• Total profit: $-47,044
• Equity at exit: $7,695

Cash invested: $24,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77054

• Home prices YoY: -2.6%
• Rents YoY: -2.8%
• Active inventory: 272
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,239 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$467
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$111 /mo · $1,335/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$435
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$260
• Net cashflow: $-137

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,413

Max offer price $69,106

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-76	-5% $-107	+0% $-137	+5% $-168	+10% $-199
Rent	-10% $-235	-5% $-186	+0% $-137	+5% $-89	+10% $-40
Rate	-1.0pp $-93	-0.5pp $-115	base $-137	+0.5pp $-161	+1.0pp $-184

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,250
• Closing costs: $2,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8415 Hearth Dr Unit 1019639P Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1496	$5,205	$3.48	0d	1	0.01mi
8415 Hearth Dr #25 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$3,950	$2.63	45d	1	0.01mi
8521 Hearth Dr Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1092	$1,195	$1.09	45d	1	0.03mi
2801 S Bartell Dr Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1289	$1,808	$1.40	13d	1	0.08mi
8435 Hearth Dr Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1040	$950	$0.91	45d	1	0.08mi
2501 Westridge St Unit 424 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1005	$1,239	$1.23	7d	1	0.11mi
2501 Westridge St Unit 2558 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1005	$1,223	$1.22	0d	1	0.11mi
2501 Westridge St Unit 422 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1005	$1,239	$1.23	9d	1	0.11mi
2820 S Bartell Dr Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	780	$850	$1.09	45d	3	0.14mi
2400 South Loop W Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	723	$1,250	$1.73	1d	26	0.14mi
2501 Westridge St Unit 2047 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1005	$1,274	$1.27	12d	1	0.15mi
8800 Lakes at 610 Dr Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	951	$1,280	$1.35	26d	1	0.18mi
2401 Westridge St Unit 1-1009 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	841	$998	$1.19	26d	1	0.18mi
2401 Westridge St Unit 2112 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	812	$1,019	$1.25	9d	1	0.18mi
2401 Westridge St Unit 422 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	812	$989	$1.22	9d	1	0.18mi
2401 Westridge St Unit 2-2314 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	812	$999	$1.23	45d	1	0.18mi
2401 Westridge St Unit 1-1013 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	844	$1,250	$1.48	45d	1	0.18mi
2401 Westridge St Unit 2-2610 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	812	$824	$1.01	26d	1	0.18mi
2401 Westridge St Unit 425 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	812	$1,013	$1.25	12d	1	0.18mi
2401 Westridge St Unit 1-1009 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	844	$1,000	$1.18	45d	1	0.18mi
2401 Westridge St Unit 2-2008 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	844	$950	$1.13	46d	1	0.18mi
2407 Westridge St Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	975	$1,199	$1.23	45d	1	0.20mi
2401 Westridge St Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	723	$1,250	$1.73	9d	30	0.20mi
2818 S Bartell Dr Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	780	$795	$1.02	45d	1	0.20mi
2600 Westridge St Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	790	$1,349	$1.71	0d	74	0.20mi
8410 W Bartell Dr Unit 2047 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	892	$1,069	$1.20	12d	1	0.22mi
8410 W Bartell Dr Unit 2047 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	892	$1,059	$1.19	0d	1	0.22mi
8416 W Bartell Dr Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	892	$1,195	$1.34	26d	1	0.24mi
8410 W Bartell Dr Unit 421 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	892	$1,034	$1.16	7d	1	0.28mi
8410 W Bartell Dr Unit 422 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	892	$1,034	$1.16	9d	1	0.28mi
8410 W Bartell Dr Unit 2187 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	892	$1,018	$1.14	0d	1	0.28mi
8900 Lakes at 610 Dr Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	981	$1,810	$1.84	45d	35	0.31mi
8900 Lakes at 610 Dr Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	981	$1,920	$1.96	1d	20	0.31mi
8877 Lakes At 610 Dr Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	964	$1,808	$1.87	13d	2	0.31mi
8877 Lakes At 610 Dr Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1005	$1,808	$1.80	9d	3	0.31mi
8877 Lakes At 610 Dr Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	964	$1,808	$1.87	0d	3	0.31mi
8877 Lakes at 610 Dr Unit RAMC3 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1289	$1,808	$1.40	45d	1	0.32mi
8877 Lakes at 610 Dr Unit RAMC1 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	854	$1,325	$1.55	45d	1	0.32mi
8877 Lakes at 610 Dr Unit RAMC2 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1122	$1,595	$1.42	45d	1	0.32mi
8877 Lakes at 610 Dr Unit RAMC4 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	1035	$1,497	$1.45	45d	1	0.32mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $435 · $5,220/yr
• Likely covers: security
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $89,000 Active 162 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $89,000 Active 159 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $89,000 Active 158 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $89,000 Active 157 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $89,000 Active 156 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $89,000 Active 154 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $89,000 Active 150 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $89,000 Active 149 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $89,000 Active 148 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $89,000 Active 145 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $89,000 Active 142 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $89,000 Active 141 DOM
13. 2026-05-11
    status Active 479-char remark

    Show marketing remark (479 chars)

    Charming ground-floor condo featuring 2 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms, conveniently located near the Texas Medical Center and NRG Stadium. Situated within a gated community, this home offers easy access to major freeways, dining, shopping, and public transportation. The unit has been recently updated and is move-in ready, with a functional layout and comfortable living spaces. Ideal for those seeking low-maintenance living in a well-connected and established area of Houston.

14. 2026-04-20
    status Pending 479-char remark

    Show marketing remark (479 chars)

    Charming ground-floor condo featuring 2 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms, conveniently located near the Texas Medical Center and NRG Stadium. Situated within a gated community, this home offers easy access to major freeways, dining, shopping, and public transportation. The unit has been recently updated and is move-in ready, with a functional layout and comfortable living spaces. Ideal for those seeking low-maintenance living in a well-connected and established area of Houston.

15. 2026-04-16
    status Pending 479-char remark

    Show marketing remark (479 chars)

    Charming ground-floor condo featuring 2 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms, conveniently located near the Texas Medical Center and NRG Stadium. Situated within a gated community, this home offers easy access to major freeways, dining, shopping, and public transportation. The unit has been recently updated and is move-in ready, with a functional layout and comfortable living spaces. Ideal for those seeking low-maintenance living in a well-connected and established area of Houston.

16. 2026-02-02
    price $94,900 479-char remark

    Show marketing remark (479 chars)

    Charming ground-floor condo featuring 2 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms, conveniently located near the Texas Medical Center and NRG Stadium. Situated within a gated community, this home offers easy access to major freeways, dining, shopping, and public transportation. The unit has been recently updated and is move-in ready, with a functional layout and comfortable living spaces. Ideal for those seeking low-maintenance living in a well-connected and established area of Houston.

17. 2025-12-19
    listed $99,000 Active 479-char remark

    Show marketing remark (479 chars)

    Charming ground-floor condo featuring 2 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms, conveniently located near the Texas Medical Center and NRG Stadium. Situated within a gated community, this home offers easy access to major freeways, dining, shopping, and public transportation. The unit has been recently updated and is move-in ready, with a functional layout and comfortable living spaces. Ideal for those seeking low-maintenance living in a well-connected and established area of Houston.

18. 2013-11-26
    soldstatus Sold
19. 2013-11-02
    status Pending
20. 2013-10-09
    listed $31,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,871
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,985
• − Property taxes: −$1,335
• − Insurance: −$1,242
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,190
• − Management: −$1,190
• − HOA: −$5,220
• − Depreciation: −$2,589
• Taxable loss: −$2,880
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$691
• After-tax cash flow: $-959/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 28,272
• Household income: $62,106
• Rent vs Own: 88.2% rent · 11.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 2814.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.72)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 41% Asian 22% White 20% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Romanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 29% · China, Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 9% Chinese 7% Other Indo-European 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -4.51%
• Current HPI: 170.4017
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.82%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+197.5% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-04-20 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-16 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-02-02 Price Changed $94,900 HARMLS
• 2025-12-19 Listed $99,000 HARMLS
• 2013-11-26 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2013-11-02 Pending — HARMLS
• 2013-10-09 Listed $31,900 HARMLS