727 Forest Lk · Lakeland, FL 33809

$100,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,166 sqft · Manufactured public records · 630 Days on market

Built 1976 5,397 sqft lot $312/mo HOA · 15% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Two bedroom two bath home in the 55+ community of Lakeside Hills Estates in North Lakeland. This triplewide home has more than 2100 square feet of living area. The living room has nice windows that give plenty of light with a dining area and opens into the family room. Family room is perfect place for tv watching or putting together puzzles with sliding glass door. The kitchen has an eating area and a closet pantry. Walk in closet in the master bedroom. Offered furnished. Has a nice porch in back of the family room, glassed in for year round use. Reasonable HOA includes basic lawn mowing and edging, basic BrightHouse cable (about 80 channels), water (but not sewer) and use of community facilities. Call today to make appointment to see this home soon.

Key facts

• 5,397 sq ft lot
• Parking
• Community pool

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Partially furnished; No home warranty
• Financial info: Total annual association fees reported (approx. $3,754); Total monthly fees reported (approx. $312.83)
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with monthly fee (approximately $292); Association amenities: clubhouse, pool, fitness center, tennis courts, recreation facilities, cable TV, internet, maintained grounds, lobby key access; Association fee includes cable TV, common area taxes, pool, internet, and grounds maintenance; Association approval not required for purchase; Community features: deed restrictions, sidewalks, street lights, wheelchair access, handicap modified areas, golf carts allowed, buyer approval required, special community restrictions; Senior community; Pets allowed (cats and dogs) with limits; max pet weight around 35 lbs

Exterior

• Parking: Carport with 1 space; Ample community parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable connected; Electricity connected; Phone available; Underground utilities; Public utility service
• Home design: Residential mobile home (triple wide); Single-story; South-facing
• Construction: Other construction materials; Other roof type; Crawlspace foundation; Built as a triple wide mobile home
• Exterior features: Enclosed screened rear porch; Patio/porch; Awnings; Private mailbox; Sidewalk; Storage shed/structure; Heated in-ground pool; On-site spa; Lake access (Lake Gibson) with fishing pier and boating/skiing allowed; Community boat ramp and rentable boat slips

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Walk-in closets; Window treatments; Blinds
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Outdoor laundry access

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $543 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $88k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#206 in FL, #3,179 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 259 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($70k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.7% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 630 days — a 12% lower offer ($88k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $70k (41%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $61k; list at $100k implies a 64% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $88,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 630 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.25%
• DSCR: 2.03
• GRM: 4.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.65% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.50×
• Total profit: $13,909
• Equity at exit: $14,910

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.40×
• Total profit: $39,259
• Equity at exit: $8,646

Cash invested: $28,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33809

• Home prices YoY: -20.9%
• Rents YoY: 0.7%
• Active inventory: 259
• Price-to-rent: 4.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,035 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$187 /mo · $2,244/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$312
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$427
• Net cashflow: $543

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,348

Max offer price $100,000

Occupancy floor 68%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $599	-5% $571	+0% $543	+5% $514	+10% $486
Rent	-10% $382	-5% $462	+0% $543	+5% $623	+10% $703
Rate	-1.0pp $593	-0.5pp $568	base $543	+0.5pp $517	+1.0pp $490

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $25,000
• Closing costs: $3,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
907 Swann Dr Lakeland, FL	3.0	3.0	1601	$1,960	$1.22	15d	1	0.49mi
4048 Chelsea Ln Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1697	$2,320	$1.37	4d	1	0.74mi
4500 Williamstown Blvd Lakeland, FL	3.0	1.0–2.0	1062	$1,508	$1.42	24d	1	0.91mi
5817 Daughtery Downs Loop Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1609	$1,800	$1.12	15d	1	1.08mi
5817 Daughtery Downs Loop Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1609	$1,800	$1.12	24d	1	1.08mi
4083 Dover Terrace Dr Unit 4083 Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.5	1771	$1,975	$1.12	24d	1	1.10mi
4940 N Socrum Loop Rd Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.5	1950	$3,900	$2.00	24d	1	1.14mi
3805 Exeter Ln Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.5	1771	$1,900	$1.07	15d	1	1.21mi
5818 Bambi Dr Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1401	$2,200	$1.57	24d	1	1.21mi
3824 Exeter Ln Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.5	1771	$1,795	$1.01	4d	1	1.23mi
3867 Hampstead Ln Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.5	1633	$1,795	$1.10	4d	1	1.24mi
3842 Hampstead Ln Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.5	1633	$1,800	$1.10	15d	1	1.27mi
1754 Altavista Cir Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	2082	$2,450	$1.18	15d	1	1.34mi
4111 Solamor St Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1619	$2,400	$1.48	15d	1	1.40mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $312 · $3,744/yr
• Likely covers: watersewercable

Listing history 37 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $100,000 Active 630 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $100,000 Active 629 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $100,000 Active 628 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $100,000 Active 627 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $100,000 Active 625 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $125,000 Active 622 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $125,000 Active 621 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $125,000 Active 620 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $125,000 Active 619 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $125,000 Active 616 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $125,000 Active 614 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $125,000 Active 613 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $125,000 Active 612 DOM
14. 2025-12-15
    price $125,000
15. 2025-11-06
    status Active
16. 2025-10-23
    status Pending
17. 2025-06-02
    price $135,000
18. 2025-03-15
    price $150,000
19. 2025-03-08
    status Active
20. 2025-03-03
    historical
21. 2025-02-04
    price $155,000
22. 2024-09-07
    listed $169,900 Active
23. 2024-01-25
    historical
24. 2023-10-06
    listed $175,000 Active
25. 2016-12-01
    soldstatus $61,000
26. 2016-11-30
    soldstatus $61,000 Sold 760-char remark

    Show marketing remark (760 chars)

    Two bedroom two bath home in the 55+ community of Lakeside Hills Estates in North Lakeland. This triplewide home has more than 2100 square feet of living area. The living room has nice windows that give plenty of light with a dining area and opens into the family room. Family room is perfect place for tv watching or putting together puzzles with sliding glass door. The kitchen has an eating area and a closet pantry. Walk in closet in the master bedroom. Offered furnished. Has a nice porch in back of the family room, glassed in for year round use. Reasonable HOA includes basic lawn mowing and edging, basic BrightHouse cable (about 80 channels), water (but not sewer) and use of community facilities. Call today to make appointment to see this home soon.

27. 2016-10-28
    status Pending 760-char remark

    Show marketing remark (760 chars)

    Two bedroom two bath home in the 55+ community of Lakeside Hills Estates in North Lakeland. This triplewide home has more than 2100 square feet of living area. The living room has nice windows that give plenty of light with a dining area and opens into the family room. Family room is perfect place for tv watching or putting together puzzles with sliding glass door. The kitchen has an eating area and a closet pantry. Walk in closet in the master bedroom. Offered furnished. Has a nice porch in back of the family room, glassed in for year round use. Reasonable HOA includes basic lawn mowing and edging, basic BrightHouse cable (about 80 channels), water (but not sewer) and use of community facilities. Call today to make appointment to see this home soon.

28. 2016-10-25
    price $64,000 760-char remark

    Show marketing remark (760 chars)

    Two bedroom two bath home in the 55+ community of Lakeside Hills Estates in North Lakeland. This triplewide home has more than 2100 square feet of living area. The living room has nice windows that give plenty of light with a dining area and opens into the family room. Family room is perfect place for tv watching or putting together puzzles with sliding glass door. The kitchen has an eating area and a closet pantry. Walk in closet in the master bedroom. Offered furnished. Has a nice porch in back of the family room, glassed in for year round use. Reasonable HOA includes basic lawn mowing and edging, basic BrightHouse cable (about 80 channels), water (but not sewer) and use of community facilities. Call today to make appointment to see this home soon.

29. 2016-10-25
    status Active 760-char remark

    Show marketing remark (760 chars)

    Two bedroom two bath home in the 55+ community of Lakeside Hills Estates in North Lakeland. This triplewide home has more than 2100 square feet of living area. The living room has nice windows that give plenty of light with a dining area and opens into the family room. Family room is perfect place for tv watching or putting together puzzles with sliding glass door. The kitchen has an eating area and a closet pantry. Walk in closet in the master bedroom. Offered furnished. Has a nice porch in back of the family room, glassed in for year round use. Reasonable HOA includes basic lawn mowing and edging, basic BrightHouse cable (about 80 channels), water (but not sewer) and use of community facilities. Call today to make appointment to see this home soon.

30. 2016-08-12
    status Pending 760-char remark

    Show marketing remark (760 chars)

    Two bedroom two bath home in the 55+ community of Lakeside Hills Estates in North Lakeland. This triplewide home has more than 2100 square feet of living area. The living room has nice windows that give plenty of light with a dining area and opens into the family room. Family room is perfect place for tv watching or putting together puzzles with sliding glass door. The kitchen has an eating area and a closet pantry. Walk in closet in the master bedroom. Offered furnished. Has a nice porch in back of the family room, glassed in for year round use. Reasonable HOA includes basic lawn mowing and edging, basic BrightHouse cable (about 80 channels), water (but not sewer) and use of community facilities. Call today to make appointment to see this home soon.

31. 2016-05-11
    status Active 760-char remark

    Show marketing remark (760 chars)

    Two bedroom two bath home in the 55+ community of Lakeside Hills Estates in North Lakeland. This triplewide home has more than 2100 square feet of living area. The living room has nice windows that give plenty of light with a dining area and opens into the family room. Family room is perfect place for tv watching or putting together puzzles with sliding glass door. The kitchen has an eating area and a closet pantry. Walk in closet in the master bedroom. Offered furnished. Has a nice porch in back of the family room, glassed in for year round use. Reasonable HOA includes basic lawn mowing and edging, basic BrightHouse cable (about 80 channels), water (but not sewer) and use of community facilities. Call today to make appointment to see this home soon.

32. 2016-05-06
    historical 760-char remark

    Show marketing remark (760 chars)

    Two bedroom two bath home in the 55+ community of Lakeside Hills Estates in North Lakeland. This triplewide home has more than 2100 square feet of living area. The living room has nice windows that give plenty of light with a dining area and opens into the family room. Family room is perfect place for tv watching or putting together puzzles with sliding glass door. The kitchen has an eating area and a closet pantry. Walk in closet in the master bedroom. Offered furnished. Has a nice porch in back of the family room, glassed in for year round use. Reasonable HOA includes basic lawn mowing and edging, basic BrightHouse cable (about 80 channels), water (but not sewer) and use of community facilities. Call today to make appointment to see this home soon.

33. 2016-01-07
    listed $69,000 Active 760-char remark

    Show marketing remark (760 chars)

    Two bedroom two bath home in the 55+ community of Lakeside Hills Estates in North Lakeland. This triplewide home has more than 2100 square feet of living area. The living room has nice windows that give plenty of light with a dining area and opens into the family room. Family room is perfect place for tv watching or putting together puzzles with sliding glass door. The kitchen has an eating area and a closet pantry. Walk in closet in the master bedroom. Offered furnished. Has a nice porch in back of the family room, glassed in for year round use. Reasonable HOA includes basic lawn mowing and edging, basic BrightHouse cable (about 80 channels), water (but not sewer) and use of community facilities. Call today to make appointment to see this home soon.

34. 2016-01-04
    historical
35. 2015-11-05
    listed $69,000 Active
36. 2004-07-29
    soldstatus $64,000
37. 1986-06-01
    soldstatus $46,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,244 · $187/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,244 · $187/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,420
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,602
• − Property taxes: −$2,244
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,954
• − Management: −$1,954
• − HOA: −$3,744
• − Depreciation: −$2,909
• Taxable income: $5,514
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,323
• After-tax cash flow: $5,187/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lakeland

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #206
• US rank: #3179

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lakeland, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 277,690
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 30,797
• Household income: $70,066
• Rent vs Own: 35.8% rent · 64.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 924.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 18% Black 11% Two or more races 11% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 9% Cuban 1% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -79.46%
• Current HPI: 301.3054
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.65%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+171.7% since first listed

24 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-15 Price Changed $125,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-06 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-23 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-02 Price Changed $135,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-15 Price Changed $150,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-08 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-03 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-02-04 Price Changed $155,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-09-07 Listed $169,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-01-25 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-10-06 Listed $175,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-12-01 Sold (Public Records) $61,000 Public Records
• 2016-11-30 Sold (MLS) $61,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-10-28 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-10-25 Price Changed $64,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-10-25 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-08-12 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-05-11 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-05-06 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-01-07 Listed $69,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-01-04 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-11-05 Listed $69,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-07-29 Sold (Public Records) $64,000 Public Records
• 1986-06-01 Sold (Public Records) $46,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+9.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,244 · +4.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.