16188 Lawton St · Detroit, MI 48221

$160,000

6 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,600 sqft · Townhouse public records · 76 Days on market

Built 1928 3,920 sqft lot $62/sqft · 18% above area Est $135k · 18% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.0/30.0
• 1% rule +6.8/10.0
• DSCR +6.4/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Spacious brick duplex featuring two large units, each offering 3 bedrooms. Just outside the bagley neighborhood in the very desirable Martin Park. Most major updates have already been completed—just bring your finishing touches with new flooring to make it shine. A solid investment or owner-occupant opportunity with strong potential! Very little rehab needed. With an ARV above 230k and each unit should rent out for $1,300 a month totalling $2,600. Cash on Cash return is through the roof!! RECENT APPRAISAL CAME IN AT $240k

Key facts

• 3,920 sq ft lot
• Built 1928
• Listed 76 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 6-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $198 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
• Recommended offer: $150k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 10.0% in Detroit — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#218 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime F, employment F.
• Detroit Public Schools Community District (urban): math 10% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #499 of 540 in MI (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 90% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Paul Robeson Malcolm X Academy (math 10% / reading 10%, grade F, #1,230 of 1,397 statewide, top 91%, 395 students, 88% FRL); Mumford High School (math 24% / reading 24%, grade F, #481 of 713 statewide, top 81%, 889 students, 86% FRL) — zoned schools at 87% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 349 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,639 units permitted in Wayne County in 2024 (1,216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($58k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wayne County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 76 days — a 6% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 16 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $99k; list at $160k implies a 62% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price; built in 1928 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $150,400 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 76 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1928 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.18% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.77%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.29%
• DSCR: 1.24
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $135,035
• List price: $160,000
• Delta: 18.49%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.44% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.72×
• Total profit: $-12,355
• Equity at exit: $23,857

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.21×
• Total profit: $9,530
• Equity at exit: $13,834

Cash invested: $44,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48221

• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 349
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,894 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$393 /mo · $4,717/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$398
• Net cashflow: $198

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,644

Max offer price $160,000

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $288	-5% $243	+0% $198	+5% $152	+10% $107
Rent	-10% $48	-5% $123	+0% $198	+5% $272	+10% $347
Rate	-1.0pp $278	-0.5pp $238	base $198	+0.5pp $156	+1.0pp $114

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,000
• Closing costs: $4,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
106 Geneva St Highland Park, MI	5.0	1.0	1920	$1,450	$0.76	12d	1	1.14mi
15756 Ohio St Detroit, MI	5.0	2.0	1934	$1,700	$0.88	26d	1	1.32mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $160,000 Active 76 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $160,000 Active 73 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $160,000 Active 72 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $160,000 Active 70 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $160,000 Active 68 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $160,000 Active 67 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $160,000 Active 64 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $160,000 Active 63 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $160,000 Active 62 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $160,000 Active 59 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $160,000 Active 58 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $160,000 Active 57 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $160,000 Active 56 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $160,000 Active 55 DOM
15. 2026-04-06
    listed $175,000 Active 533-char remark

    Show marketing remark (529 chars)

    Spacious brick duplex featuring two large units, each offering 3 bedrooms. Just outside the bagley neighborhood in the very desirable Martin Park. Most major updates have already been completed - just bring your finishing touches with new flooring to make it shine. A solid investment or owner-occupant opportunity with strong potential! Very little rehab needed. With an ARV above 230k and each unit should rent out for $1,300 a month totalling $2,600. Cash on Cash return is through the roof!! RECENT APPRAISAL CAME IN AT $240k

16. 2026-04-06
    listed $175,000 Active 529-char remark

    Show marketing remark (529 chars)

    Spacious brick duplex featuring two large units, each offering 3 bedrooms. Just outside the bagley neighborhood in the very desirable Martin Park. Most major updates have already been completed - just bring your finishing touches with new flooring to make it shine. A solid investment or owner-occupant opportunity with strong potential! Very little rehab needed. With an ARV above 230k and each unit should rent out for $1,300 a month totalling $2,600. Cash on Cash return is through the roof!! RECENT APPRAISAL CAME IN AT $240k

17. 2024-09-17
    status Pending
18. 2024-09-17
    status Pending
19. 2024-09-17
    soldstatus $99,000 Sold
20. 2024-09-17
    soldstatus $99,000 Closed
21. 2024-08-12
    status Active
22. 2024-08-12
    status Active
23. 2024-08-12
    status Pending
24. 2024-08-12
    status Pending
25. 2024-07-09
    listed $99,999 Active
26. 2024-07-09
    listed $99,999 Active
27. 2024-07-06
    historical $99,999
28. 2024-07-06
    historical $99,999
29. 2024-01-21
    historical
30. 2024-01-20
    historical
31. 2024-01-04
    status Active
32. 2024-01-04
    status Active
33. 2024-01-01
    historical
34. 2024-01-01
    historical
35. 2023-10-23
    listed $139,000 Active
36. 2023-10-23
    listed $139,000 Active
37. 2023-10-21
    historical
38. 2023-10-21
    historical
39. 2023-09-01
    historical
40. 2023-09-01
    historical
41. 2023-06-06
    price $165,000
42. 2023-06-06
    price $165,000
43. 2023-06-02
    status Active
44. 2023-06-02
    status Active
45. 2023-04-21
    status Pending
46. 2023-04-21
    status Pending
47. 2023-04-16
    historical Accepting Backup Offers
48. 2023-04-16
    historical Accepting Backup Offers
49. 2023-03-26
    price $175,000
50. 2023-03-25
    price $175,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,717 · $393/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,717 · $393/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,730
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,962
• − Property taxes: −$4,717
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,818
• − Management: −$1,818
• − Depreciation: −$4,655
• Taxable loss: −$41
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$10
• After-tax cash flow: $2,381/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Detroit Public Schools Community District
• NCES district ID: 2601103
• Math proficiency: 10% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $25,815
• Composite: 13.06/100
• National rank: #9564
• State rank: #499 of 540 in MI

Livability — Detroit

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #218
• US rank: #5427

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Detroit, MI
• County: Wayne County · 1,562,939 people
• City population: 572,865
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• Population (ZIP): 41,392
• Household income: $57,878
• Rent vs Own: 34.0% rent · 66.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1646.0

Population outlook (Wayne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,675,273 people
• By 2030: 1,620,300 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 1,502,341 · -10.3%
• By 2050: 1,384,039 · -17.4%
• By 2075: 1,124,592 · -32.9%
• By 2100: 881,193 · -47.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 85% White 8% Two or more races 4% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wayne

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+29.0) · D 62.7% · R 33.7% · Other 3.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.5pp toward R · 2008: 49.5pp · 2024: 29.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+29.0 2020: D+38.1 2016: D+37.3 2012: D+46.9 2008: D+49.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -433.14%
• Current HPI: 280.5434
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.44%
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+192.2% since first listed

50 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-06 Listed $175,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-04-06 Listed $175,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-09-17 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-09-17 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2024-09-17 Sold (MLS) $99,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-09-17 Sold (MLS) $99,000 REALCOMP
• 2024-08-12 Relisted — REALCOMP
• 2024-08-12 Relisted — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-08-12 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-08-12 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2024-07-09 Listed $99,999 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-07-09 Listed $99,999 REALCOMP
• 2024-07-06 Coming Soon $99,999 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-07-06 Coming Soon $99,999 REALCOMP
• 2024-01-21 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-01-20 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2024-01-04 Relisted — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-01-04 Relisted — REALCOMP
• 2024-01-01 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-01-01 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2023-10-23 Listed $139,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2023-10-23 Listed $139,000 REALCOMP
• 2023-10-21 Coming Soon — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2023-10-21 Coming Soon — REALCOMP
• 2023-09-01 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2023-09-01 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2023-06-06 Price Changed $165,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2023-06-06 Price Changed $165,000 REALCOMP
• 2023-06-02 Relisted — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2023-06-02 Relisted — REALCOMP
• 2023-04-21 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2023-04-21 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2023-04-16 Contingent — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2023-04-16 Contingent — REALCOMP
• 2023-03-26 Price Changed $175,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2023-03-25 Price Changed $175,000 REALCOMP
• 2023-03-02 Listed $185,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2023-03-02 Listed $185,000 REALCOMP
• 2023-02-23 Coming Soon — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2023-02-23 Coming Soon — REALCOMP
• 2018-02-01 Sold (MLS) $40,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2018-02-01 Sold (MLS) $40,000 REALCOMP
• 2017-12-09 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2017-12-09 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2017-11-20 Price Changed $47,500 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2017-11-20 Price Changed $47,500 REALCOMP
• 2017-11-05 Price Changed $50,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2017-11-04 Price Changed $50,000 REALCOMP
• 2017-10-21 Listed $59,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2017-10-21 Listed $59,900 REALCOMP

Property tax history

+9.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,717 · +41.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.