8618 Sandy Plains Rd · Dundalk, MD 21222

$349,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,472 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 8 Days on market

Built 1982 9,856 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Offer Deadline Friday June 5 @ 12pm. Rarely Available Dundalk Waterfront Rancher with a Private Dock in need of rehab with almost 2500 sq ft of living area with 4 BR's and 2 baths. on . 22 acres. Schedule your showing today!

Key facts

• Private dock
• 9,856 sq ft lot
• Built 1982

Tags

• DUNDALK WATERFRONT RANCHER
• PRIVATE DOCK

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Fee simple ownership; Assessor sources used for living area and year built; Above-grade finished area reported as 2,472 (source: Assessor)
• HOA & community: Ground rent paid annually

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric hot water
• Home design: Detached home; Entry level: main living features on main level; Property condition: major rehab needed
• Construction: Frame construction; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Bayfront location with water view and water access; Private dock (one) with exclusive use; dock conveys; Navigable water frontage (80 feet)

Interior

• Bedrooms: Four bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (both on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (oil); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Two fireplaces

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $350k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $467 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $350k).
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 6.2% in Dundalk — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#16 in MD, #510 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Baltimore County Public Schools (suburban): math 15% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #11 of 24 in MD (top 46%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 236 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,511 units permitted in Baltimore County in 2024 (643 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,705/mo this rent would consume 69% of the median local household income ($64k/yr) (locally 2566% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Baltimore County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $88k; list at $350k implies a 300% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wind risk, 67% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $349,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.12%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.53%
• DSCR: 1.29
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $768,792
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
29 Waterview Rd	0.30mi	4/2.0	2,509 (+2%)	13mo	$781,000	$311	72
1757 Drexel Rd	0.71mi	4/2.0	2,180 (-12%)	22mo	$308,000	$141	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.61×
• Total profit: $-37,728
• Equity at exit: $52,171

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-36,180
• Equity at exit: $30,253

Cash invested: $97,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21222

• Rents YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 236
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,705 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,835
• Tax from tax record: −$413 /mo · $4,954/yr
• Insurance: −$146
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$778
• Net cashflow: $467

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,114

Max offer price $349,900

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $665	-5% $566	+0% $467	+5% $368	+10% $269
Rent	-10% $174	-5% $321	+0% $467	+5% $613	+10% $760
Rate	-1.0pp $643	-0.5pp $556	base $467	+0.5pp $376	+1.0pp $284

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $87,475
• Closing costs: $10,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
804 Oakleigh Beach Rd Unit 1061330P Dundalk, MD	3.0	3.0	1980	$6,168	$3.12	2d	1	0.50mi
1760 Langport Ave Dundalk, MD	3.0	1.5	1600	$1,795	$1.12	44d	1	0.83mi
8453 Stansbury Lake Dr Dundalk, MD	3.0	2.5	2076	$3,500	$1.69	44d	1	0.89mi
7720 Village Park Dr Dundalk, MD	4.0	2.5	1900	$3,300	$1.74	24d	1	1.00mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-10
   statusdays on market $349,900 Pending 8 DOM
2. 2026-06-04
   remarks 224-char remark
3. 2026-06-04
   days on market $349,900 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-03
   days on market $349,900 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-02
   days on market $349,900 Active 5 DOM
6. 2026-06-01
   days on market $349,900 Active 4 DOM
7. 2026-05-31
   days on market $349,900 Active 3 DOM
8. 2026-05-28
   listed $349,900 Active
9. 1983-12-13
   soldstatus $87,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,954 · $413/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,954 · $413/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (shaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 67% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $44,462
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,600
• − Property taxes: −$4,954
• − Insurance: −$2,547
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,557
• − Management: −$3,557
• − Depreciation: −$10,179
• Taxable income: $68
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$16
• After-tax cash flow: $5,588/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baltimore County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400120
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $66,746
• Composite: 23.17/100
• National rank: #7948
• State rank: #11 of 24 in MD

Livability — Dundalk

• Score: 85/100
• State rank: #16
• US rank: #510

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Dundalk, MD
• County: Baltimore County · 769,527 people
• City population: 59,407
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• Population (ZIP): 59,407
• Household income: $64,141
• Rent vs Own: 35.1% rent · 64.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 2566.0

Population outlook (Baltimore County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 885,518 people
• By 2030: 909,272 · +2.7%
• By 2040: 951,547 · +7.5%
• By 2050: 990,955 · +11.9%
• By 2075: 1,086,411 · +22.7%
• By 2100: 1,135,078 · +28.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Black 18% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 7% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Indo-European 2% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Baltimore

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+24.5) · D 61.0% · R 36.5% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: 14.6pp · 2024: 24.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+24.5 2020: D+27.0 2016: D+17.4 2012: D+16.4 2008: D+14.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -251.44%
• Current HPI: 228.4218
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.09%
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+299.9% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Listed $349,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 1983-12-13 Sold (Public Records) $87,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,954 · +3.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.