1516 Rose St · Bay City, MI 48708

$59,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,040 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1900 10,019 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

INVESTOR SPECIAL! Opportunity awaits with this 4-bedroom, 1-bath home situated on a spacious property that includes an additional lot to the south. The home features a two-car garage with a single overhead door and offers plenty of potential for renovation, rental income, or resale. Property is part of an estate and is being sold AS IS. Seller will make no repairs. Sale is subject to completion of probate court proceedings. Buyers to verify all information and dimensions. Bring your vision and make this property your next investment project!

Key facts

• 0.23 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1900

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Subdivision: MCEWANS; Cross streets: Woodside / Nebobish
• Financial info: No investor or income/expense details provided
• HOA & community: Homeowners association present

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 2-car garage
• Security: No security features listed
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story
• Construction: Vinyl siding and wood siding; Built area above grade: 1,040 square feet
• Exterior features: Porch; City lot; Road maintained by public authority; Lot dimensions approximately 102 x 100

Interior

• Kitchen: No kitchen appliance list provided
• Bedrooms: 7 total rooms (bedrooms and other rooms included)
• Flooring: No flooring details provided
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Natural gas heating; No central cooling
• Interior features: Gas water heater; Full basement
• Laundry & utility: No laundry details provided

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $60k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $513 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $60k).
• Cap rate 16.6% vs local median 5.5% in Bay City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#360 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities D, crime F.
• Bay City School District (urban): math 27% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #317 of 540 in MI (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 148 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 39 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $414 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bay County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $59,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 36.72%
• DSCR: 2.63
• GRM: 4.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $128,960
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3204 N Water St	0.37mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,046 (+1%)	3mo	$110,000	$105	75
206 Campbell St	0.27mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,052 (+1%)	8mo	$130,000	$124	74
2135 4th St	0.39mi	3/1.0	1,040 (0%)	10mo	$115,000	$111	73
1110 Chase St	0.39mi	3/1.0	1,011 (-3%)	8mo	$115,500	$114	71
1302 Green Ave	0.33mi	2/1.0 (-1)	988 (-5%)	1mo	$145,000	$147	70
1009 N Hampton St	0.54mi	3/1.5	1,081 (+4%)	0mo	$140,000	$130	66
2702 N VanBuren St	0.16mi	2/1.0 (-1)	948 (-9%)	10mo	$120,000	$127	65
2110 4th St	0.43mi	3/1.0	1,104 (+6%)	9mo	$78,000	$71	62
300 Thompson St	0.48mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,016 (-2%)	9mo	$112,000	$110	57
308 Borton Ave	0.59mi	3/1.0	1,100 (+6%)	8mo	$144,900	$132	57
1020 N TRUMBULL St	0.37mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,170 (+12%)	8mo	$70,000	$60	46
2121 7th St	0.67mi	3/1.5	1,182 (+14%)	2mo	$175,000	$148	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 32.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.37×
• Total profit: $23,021
• Equity at exit: $8,931

10-year hold

• IRR: 39.6%
• Equity multiple: 4.71×
• Total profit: $62,304
• Equity at exit: $5,179

Cash invested: $16,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48708

• Home prices YoY: -30.9%
• Active inventory: 148
• Price-to-rent: 4.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,222 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$314
• Tax from tax record: −$113 /mo · $1,358/yr
• Insurance: −$25
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$257
• Net cashflow: $513

Break-even live

Break-even rent $572

Max offer price $59,900

Occupancy floor 53%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $14,975
• Closing costs: $1,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
800 McKinley St Bay City, MI	2.0	1.0	796	$925	$1.16	44d	1	1.14mi
1305 Washington Ave Bay City, MI	2.0	1.0	635	$1,675	$2.64	44d	1	1.18mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $59,900 Active 3 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $59,900 Active 2 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   remarks 593-char remark
4. 2026-06-17
   remarks 547-char remark
5. 2026-06-17
   listed $59,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,358 · $113/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,358 · $113/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,664
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,355
• − Property taxes: −$1,358
• − Insurance: −$300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,173
• − Management: −$1,173
• − Depreciation: −$1,743
• Taxable income: $5,563
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,335
• After-tax cash flow: $4,823/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay City School District
• NCES district ID: 2604260
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,833
• Composite: 28.47/100
• National rank: #6743
• State rank: #317 of 540 in MI

Livability — Bay City

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #360
• US rank: #8912

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bay City, MI
• County: Bay County · 36,975 people
• City population: 25,635
• Metro: Bay City, MI
• Population (ZIP): 25,635
• Household income: $50,518
• Rent vs Own: 29.9% rent · 70.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 528.0

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 101,476 people
• By 2030: 98,152 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 89,711 · -11.6%
• By 2050: 80,614 · -20.6%
• By 2075: 60,544 · -40.3%
• By 2100: 41,603 · -59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 10% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 17% Lithuanian 7% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: R (+14.7) · D 42.0% · R 56.7% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -30.0pp toward R · 2008: 15.3pp · 2024: -14.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.7 2020: R+11.6 2016: R+12.6 2012: D+6.0 2008: D+15.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -82.21%
• Current HPI: 183.5774
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Bay City, MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Listed $59,900 REALCOMP
• 2026-06-16 Listed $59,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS

Property tax history

-5.3%/yr

Latest (2019): $1,358 · +1.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.