54 Independence Grn · Montpelier, VT 05602

$285,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,008 sqft · Condo · 50 Days on market

Built 1983 Good condition $283/sqft · at area comps Est $279k · at est. $275/mo HOA · 10% of rent ↓ 1% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.7/30.0
• ARV discount +6.5/15.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this beautiful second story condo walking distance to downtown Montpelier. Featuring wood floors throughout the home, updated vinyl double pane windows, and new interior doors. This 2 bedroom home has a light filled, dine-in kitchen with doors opening to a private back viewing deck. Updated washer & dryer in-unit, along with a detached 1 car garage parking space with additional locked storage unit perfect for bikes, and other gear. Enjoy a quiet neighborhood, with an in ground pool, that is pet-friendly, and is 50 yards from the large open field that is a maintained park space. Also close walking distance to Robert's trails, and all that the Capital City has to offer. . The

Key facts

• Second story condo
• Wood floors
• Locked storage unit

Tags

• SECOND STORY CONDO
• WOOD FLOORS
• PRIVATE BACK VIEWING DECK
• DETACHED 1 CAR GARAGE
• LOCKED STORAGE UNIT
• IN GROUND POOL

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Road access is via association/paved public maintained road; Road frontage present
• HOA & community: Condo association with monthly fee of $275; HOA fee covers landscaping, plowing, trash and building maintenance; Community amenities include in-ground pool, snow removal, and trash removal

Exterior

• Parking: 1-car garage; Paved driveway
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; 100 Amp electric service (Green Mtn Power); High-speed internet available (cable and satellite); Xfinity cable available; Phone service available
• Home design: Apartment building, end unit on the top floor; Blue exterior; Shingle roof; Existing construction (built in 1983)
• Construction: Wood frame construction with clapboard exterior; Built in 1983
• Exterior features: Condo development with landscaping, curbing, and sidewalks; Near shopping and public transportation; Curbside location within a neighborhood

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric cooktop; Electric stove; Microwave; Dishwasher
• Flooring: Wood
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric baseboard heat
• Interior features: 4 total rooms; Wood flooring
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $285k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-33 ($-391/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $280k (1.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $280k (1.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $276k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 2.5% in Montpelier — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#3 in VT, #670 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-.
• Zoned schools: Union Elementary School (math 52% / reading 57%, grade C, #31 of 192 statewide, top 21%, 448 students, 13% FRL); Main Street Middle School (math 41% / reading 63%, grade C+, #4 of 26 statewide, top 20%, 327 students, 26% FRL); Montpelier High School (math 37% / reading 82%, grade C+, #4 of 48 statewide, top 6%, 403 students, 23% FRL).
• Market conditions: 65 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 185 units permitted in Washington County in 2024 (30 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Washington County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 50 days — a 3% lower offer ($276k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $276,450 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 50 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.16%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.49%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $278,689
• List price: $285,000
• Delta: 2.26%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-48,045
• Equity at exit: $42,494

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-43,650
• Equity at exit: $24,642

Cash invested: $79,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Vermont: 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause in Burlington (2022); strong habitability.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 05602

• Active inventory: 65
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,800 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,495
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$356 /mo · $4,275/yr
• Insurance: −$119
• HOA: −$275
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$588
• Net cashflow: $-33

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,841

Max offer price $280,287

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $164	-5% $66	+0% $-33	+5% $-131	+10% $-230
Rent	-10% $-254	-5% $-143	+0% $-33	+5% $78	+10% $189
Rate	-1.0pp $111	-0.5pp $40	base $-33	+0.5pp $-106	+1.0pp $-182

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,250
• Closing costs: $8,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
205 Forest Dr #3 Montpelier, VT	2.0	1.0	972	$2,800	$2.88	45d	1	1.31mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $275 · $3,300/yr
• Likely covers: pool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $285,000 Active 50 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $285,000 Active 49 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $285,000 Active 48 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $285,000 Active 47 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $285,000 Active 46 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $285,000 Active 44 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $285,000 Active 43 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $285,000 Active 40 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $285,000 Active 39 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $285,000 Active 38 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $289,000 Active 34 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $289,000 Active 33 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $289,000 Active 32 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $289,000 Active 31 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $289,000 Active 30 DOM
16. 2026-04-30
    listed $289,000 Active 864-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,600
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,964
• − Property taxes: −$4,275
• − Insurance: −$1,425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,688
• − Management: −$2,688
• − HOA: −$3,300
• − Depreciation: −$8,291
• Taxable loss: −$5,031
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,208
• After-tax cash flow: $817/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained townhouse is in good condition with no major repairs needed. It has a good curb appeal and is located in a quiet neighborhood with amenities nearby. The home is move-in ready and would benefit from some cosmetic updates to increase its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint the exterior siding — Painting the exterior siding can improve the curb appeal and increase the home's value.
• Both Replace the front door — A new front door can improve the home's curb appeal and increase the home's value.
• Both Clean the gutters — Clean gutters can prevent water damage and improve the home's overall appearance.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint the exterior siding — Painting the exterior siding can improve the curb appeal and increase the home's value. ↑
• Both Replace the front door — A new front door can improve the home's curb appeal and increase the home's value. ↑
• Both Clean the gutters — Clean gutters can prevent water damage and improve the home's overall appearance. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — Montpelier

• Score: 84/100
• State rank: #3
• US rank: #670

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute B- Cost of living C+ Crime C- Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Montpelier, VT
• Population (ZIP): 12,491

Population outlook (Washington County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 56,608 people
• By 2030: 54,731 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 50,227 · -11.3%
• By 2050: 45,893 · -18.9%
• By 2075: 36,818 · -35.0%
• By 2100: 28,143 · -50.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 1% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Slovak 4% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Spanish 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Washington

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+43.4) · D 70.0% · R 26.6% · Other 3.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.4pp toward D · 2008: 41.0pp · 2024: 43.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+43.4 2020: D+46.1 2016: D+37.0 2012: D+42.2 2008: D+41.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -195.34%
• Current HPI: 344.3382
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-1.4% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Price Changed $285,000 PrimeMLS
• 2026-04-30 Listed $289,000 PrimeMLS