2528 Westwind Dr NW · Olympia, WA 98502

$199,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 480 sqft · Other public records · 150 Days on market

Built 1966 0.39 ac lot $170/mo HOA · 12% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.2/30.0
• Schools +5.8/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• DSCR +1.3/10.0

Listing remarks

Now listed with 2, yes 2 lots being sold as 1 offering 3/4 of an acre. Carlyon Beach offers some of the most affordable waterfront access in the area! Neighborhood offers fantastic waterfront access, playground, kayak area, community garden, dock access, dog park, private boat launch & moorage with a lease. This Pacific Northwest Bungalow is a perfect opportunity for a 1st home buyer or someone looking for the simple life. Completely open atmosphere making for great use of space. Enjoy front and back deck with mature trees for added privacy. Build a shop or home on the adjoining lot or expand the footprint of the current home or just enjoy a large lot with mature landscaping! Large g

Key facts

• Private boat launch
• Large lot
• Waterfront access

Tags

• WATERFRONT ACCESS
• PRIVATE BOAT LAUNCH
• LARGE LOT
• MATURE LANDSCAPING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-277 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $150k (24.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $147k (26.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $147k (26.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.6% vs local median 2.4% in Olympia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#58 in WA, #1,036 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living D-.
• Griffin School District (suburban): math 59% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #28 of 291 in WA (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 14% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.2%/yr); 304 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,222 units permitted in Thurston County in 2024 (508 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $21k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Thurston County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 150 days — a 12% lower offer ($175k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $88k; list at $199k implies a 127% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $147,068 (26.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 150 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1966 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.62%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.97%
• DSCR: 0.73
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.16% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.63×
• Total profit: $91,025
• Equity at exit: $179,275

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.4%
• Equity multiple: 6.07×
• Total profit: $282,544
• Equity at exit: $386,613

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98502

• Home prices YoY: 1.8%
• Rents YoY: 3.2%
• Active inventory: 304
• Price-to-rent: 11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,471 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax from tax record: −$143 /mo · $1,710/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$170
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$309
• Net cashflow: $-277

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,822

Max offer price $150,035

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-165	-5% $-221	+0% $-277	+5% $-334	+10% $-390
Rent	-10% $-393	-5% $-335	+0% $-277	+5% $-219	+10% $-161
Rate	-1.0pp $-177	-0.5pp $-227	base $-277	+0.5pp $-329	+1.0pp $-381

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $170 · $2,040/yr
• Likely covers: waterlandscaping

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-10
   days on market $199,000 Active 150 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,000 Active 149 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,000 Active 148 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $199,000 Active 147 DOM
5. 2026-06-05
   days on market $199,000 Active 144 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $199,000 Active 142 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $199,000 Active 141 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $199,000 Active 140 DOM
9. 2026-05-30
   days on market $199,000 Active 139 DOM
10. 2026-05-16
    price $199,000
11. 2026-04-09
    price $225,000
12. 2026-02-06
    price $240,000
13. 2005-08-11
    soldstatus $87,650
14. 2005-08-08
    soldstatus $87,650
15. 2004-10-26
    listed $99,500
16. 1989-06-26
    soldstatus $32,550

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,710 · $143/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,950 · $163/mo
• Expected delta: +$240/yr (+$20/mo · 14.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥88°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,648
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$1,710
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,412
• − Management: −$1,412
• − HOA: −$2,040
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable loss: −$6,857
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,646
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,680/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Griffin School District
• NCES district ID: 5303330
• Math proficiency: 59% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 68% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $80,706
• Composite: 58.36/100
• National rank: #2079
• State rank: #28 of 291 in WA

Livability — Olympia

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #58
• US rank: #1036

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living D- Crime F Employment B- Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Thurston County · 269,345 people
• City population: 98,428
• Metro: Olympia-Lacey-Tumwater, WA
• Population (ZIP): 35,398
• Household income: $92,207
• Rent vs Own: 42.6% rent · 57.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1811.0

Population outlook (Thurston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 308,239 people
• By 2030: 326,483 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 359,890 · +16.8%
• By 2050: 391,800 · +27.1%
• By 2075: 468,024 · +51.8%
• By 2100: 519,890 · +68.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Two or more races 13% Hispanic / Latino 11% Asian 6% Black 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Portuguese 4% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Vietnam, Canada, China
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 3% Vietnamese 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Thurston

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+20.4) · D 58.5% · R 38.1% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.3pp toward R · 2008: 21.7pp · 2024: 20.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+20.4 2020: D+18.6 2016: D+15.4 2012: D+19.0 2008: D+21.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 18.49%
• Current HPI: 1056.49
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.16%
• Metro: Olympia-Lacey-Tumwater, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+511.4% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Price Changed $199,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $225,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-06 Price Changed $240,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-08-11 Sold (MLS) $87,650 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-08-08 Sold (Public Records) $87,650 Public Records
• 2004-10-26 Listed $99,500 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1989-06-26 Sold (Public Records) $32,550 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.3%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,710 · +8.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.