7124 Choctaw Dr · Payne Springs, TX 75156

$39,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,222 sqft · Manufactured public records · 70 Days on market

9,627 sqft lot $32/sqft · 55% below area ↓ 44% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

SINGLEWIDE MOBILE IN CHEROKEE SHORES ON THREE LOTS. ACROSS THE STREET FROM SWIMMING POOL, PARK, CLUBHOUSE, TENNIS COURTS, AND BASKETBALL COURTS. MOBILE COULD BE FIXED UP BY THE RIGHT PERSON, OR REPLACED WITH A NEW HOME. POA IS A WATERFONT SUBDIVISION WITH BOAT RAMP. CLOSE TO SHOPPING, DINING, AND CEDAR CREEK LAKE.

Key facts

• 9,627 sq ft lot
• Listed 69 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $40k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $824 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $40k).
• Recommended offer: $37k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 31.3% vs local median 3.9% in Payne Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#985 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Eustace ISD (rural): math 32% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #455 of 826 in TX (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.8%/yr); 694 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 263 units permitted in Henderson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $273 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 70 days — a 6% lower offer ($37k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $37,130 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 70 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.52% ✓
• Cap rate: 31.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 89.40%
• DSCR: 4.98
• GRM: 2.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $87,200
• List price: $39,500
• Delta: -54.70%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 10 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
116 Running Brook Rd	0.44mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,216 (-0%)	15mo	$118,999	$98	57
100 Kiowa Trl	0.47mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,191 (-2%)	23mo	$117,900	$99	46
107 Pecos Dr	0.48mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,288 (+5%)	19mo	$85,000	$66	44
7111 Inca Trl	0.69mi	2/2.0	1,064 (-13%)	1mo	$88,900	$84	41
127 Longhorn Rd	0.44mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,064 (-13%)	17mo	$115,000	$108	35
102 Lake Arrowhead Dr	0.61mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,064 (-13%)	14mo	$37,000	$35	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 86.6%
• Equity multiple: 4.80×
• Total profit: $42,027
• Equity at exit: $5,890

10-year hold

• IRR: 89.1%
• Equity multiple: 9.00×
• Total profit: $88,515
• Equity at exit: $3,415

Cash invested: $11,060 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75156

• Rents YoY: -5.8%
• Active inventory: 694
• Price-to-rent: 2.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,390 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$207
• Tax from tax record: −$51 /mo · $610/yr
• Insurance: −$16
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$292
• Net cashflow: $824

Break-even live

Break-even rent $347

Max offer price $39,500

Occupancy floor 36%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $846	-5% $835	+0% $824	+5% $813	+10% $802
Rent	-10% $714	-5% $769	+0% $824	+5% $879	+10% $934
Rate	-1.0pp $844	-0.5pp $834	base $824	+0.5pp $814	+1.0pp $803

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,875
• Closing costs: $1,185
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
110 Bowie St Mabank, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,550	$1.29	44d	1	0.84mi

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $39,500 Active 70 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $39,500 Active 69 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $39,500 Active 68 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $39,500 Active 67 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $39,500 Active 66 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $39,500 Active 64 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $39,500 Active 63 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $39,500 Active 60 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $39,500 Active 59 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $39,500 Active 58 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $39,500 Active 55 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $39,500 Active 53 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $39,500 Active 52 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $39,500 Active 51 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $39,500 Active 50 DOM
16. 2026-04-10
    listed $39,500 Active 315-char remark

    Show marketing remark (315 chars)

    SINGLEWIDE MOBILE IN CHEROKEE SHORES ON THREE LOTS. ACROSS THE STREET FROM SWIMMING POOL, PARK, CLUBHOUSE, TENNIS COURTS, AND BASKETBALL COURTS. MOBILE COULD BE FIXED UP BY THE RIGHT PERSON, OR REPLACED WITH A NEW HOME. POA IS A WATERFONT SUBDIVISION WITH BOAT RAMP. CLOSE TO SHOPPING, DINING, AND CEDAR CREEK LAKE.

17. 2026-04-09
    status Active 315-char remark

    Show marketing remark (315 chars)

    SINGLEWIDE MOBILE IN CHEROKEE SHORES ON THREE LOTS. ACROSS THE STREET FROM SWIMMING POOL, PARK, CLUBHOUSE, TENNIS COURTS, AND BASKETBALL COURTS. MOBILE COULD BE FIXED UP BY THE RIGHT PERSON, OR REPLACED WITH A NEW HOME. POA IS A WATERFONT SUBDIVISION WITH BOAT RAMP. CLOSE TO SHOPPING, DINING, AND CEDAR CREEK LAKE.

18. 2026-04-03
    historical
19. 2025-08-29
    price $39,500

    Show marketing remark (315 chars)

    SINGLEWIDE MOBILE IN CHEROKEE SHORES ON THREE LOTS. ACROSS THE STREET FROM SWIMMING POOL, PARK, CLUBHOUSE, TENNIS COURTS, AND BASKETBALL COURTS. MOBILE COULD BE FIXED UP BY THE RIGHT PERSON, OR REPLACED WITH A NEW HOME. POA IS A WATERFONT SUBDIVISION WITH BOAT RAMP. CLOSE TO SHOPPING, DINING, AND CEDAR CREEK LAKE.

20. 2025-08-29
    price $39,500 315-char remark

    Show marketing remark (315 chars)

    SINGLEWIDE MOBILE IN CHEROKEE SHORES ON THREE LOTS. ACROSS THE STREET FROM SWIMMING POOL, PARK, CLUBHOUSE, TENNIS COURTS, AND BASKETBALL COURTS. MOBILE COULD BE FIXED UP BY THE RIGHT PERSON, OR REPLACED WITH A NEW HOME. POA IS A WATERFONT SUBDIVISION WITH BOAT RAMP. CLOSE TO SHOPPING, DINING, AND CEDAR CREEK LAKE.

21. 2025-04-07
    listed $40,000 Active 315-char remark

    Show marketing remark (315 chars)

    SINGLEWIDE MOBILE IN CHEROKEE SHORES ON THREE LOTS. ACROSS THE STREET FROM SWIMMING POOL, PARK, CLUBHOUSE, TENNIS COURTS, AND BASKETBALL COURTS. MOBILE COULD BE FIXED UP BY THE RIGHT PERSON, OR REPLACED WITH A NEW HOME. POA IS A WATERFONT SUBDIVISION WITH BOAT RAMP. CLOSE TO SHOPPING, DINING, AND CEDAR CREEK LAKE.

22. 2025-04-07
    listed $40,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (315 chars)

    SINGLEWIDE MOBILE IN CHEROKEE SHORES ON THREE LOTS. ACROSS THE STREET FROM SWIMMING POOL, PARK, CLUBHOUSE, TENNIS COURTS, AND BASKETBALL COURTS. MOBILE COULD BE FIXED UP BY THE RIGHT PERSON, OR REPLACED WITH A NEW HOME. POA IS A WATERFONT SUBDIVISION WITH BOAT RAMP. CLOSE TO SHOPPING, DINING, AND CEDAR CREEK LAKE.

23. 2024-11-30
    historical
24. 2023-09-25
    price $59,000
25. 2023-09-25
    price $59,000
26. 2023-09-01
    status Active
27. 2023-08-16
    historical
28. 2023-06-20
    listed $70,000 Active
29. 2023-06-20
    listed $70,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $610 · $51/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $723 · $60/mo
• Expected delta: +$113/yr (+$9/mo · 18.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,685
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,213
• − Property taxes: −$610
• − Insurance: −$198
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,335
• − Management: −$1,335
• − Depreciation: −$1,149
• Taxable income: $9,846
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,363
• After-tax cash flow: $7,525/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Eustace ISD
• NCES district ID: 4818720
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $42,425
• Composite: 32.48/100
• National rank: #5711
• State rank: #455 of 826 in TX

Livability — Payne Springs

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #985
• US rank: #17539

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D- Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Henderson County · 34,977 people
• City population: 16,333
• Metro: Athens, TX
• Population (ZIP): 16,333
• Household income: $60,867
• Rent vs Own: 18.5% rent · 81.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 400.0

Population outlook (Henderson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 80,471 people
• By 2030: 80,608 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 80,087 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 78,208 · -2.8%
• By 2075: 72,423 · -10.0%
• By 2100: 61,012 · -24.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 7% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Serbian 2% European 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Henderson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+63.5) · D 18.0% · R 81.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.8pp toward R · 2008: -44.6pp · 2024: -63.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+63.5 2020: R+60.2 2016: R+60.0 2012: R+54.8 2008: R+44.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -216.77%
• Current HPI: 199.8108
• Rent YoY: ▼ -5.76%
• Metro: Athens, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-43.6% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-10 Listed $39,500 NTREIS
• 2026-04-09 Relisted — HCBOR
• 2026-04-03 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-08-29 Price Changed $39,500 NTREIS
• 2025-08-29 Price Changed $39,500 HCBOR
• 2025-04-07 Listed $40,000 HCBOR
• 2025-04-07 Listed $40,000 NTREIS
• 2024-11-30 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2023-09-25 Price Changed $59,000 NTREIS
• 2023-09-25 Price Changed $59,000 HCBOR
• 2023-09-01 Relisted — HCBOR
• 2023-08-16 Delisted — HCBOR
• 2023-06-20 Listed $70,000 NTREIS
• 2023-06-20 Listed $70,000 HCBOR

Property tax history

+1.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $610 · +8.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.