119 S Paseo Tierra · Green Valley, AZ 85614

$97,500

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 588 sqft · Condo public records · 44 Days on market

Built 1964

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.4/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

SET BACK LOCATION CLOSE TO POOL.

Key facts

• Desert landscape
• Walking paths
• Built 1964

Tags

• WALKING PATHS
• DESERT LANDSCAPE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $98k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $512 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $98k).
• Recommended offer: $95k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.6% vs local median 4.5% in Green Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#165 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Continental Elementary District (4416) (rural): math 35% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #72 of 249 in AZ (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Continental Elementary School (math 35% / reading 42%, grade F, #418 of 1,109 statewide, top 38%, 639 students, 31% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.6%/yr); 414 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $674 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.6% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($95k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $94,575 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.44% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.50%
• DSCR: 2.00
• GRM: 5.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.6% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.75×
• Total profit: $20,539
• Equity at exit: $14,538

10-year hold

• IRR: 28.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.79×
• Total profit: $76,044
• Equity at exit: $8,430

Cash invested: $27,300 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85614

• Rents YoY: 5.6%
• Active inventory: 414
• Price-to-rent: 5.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,402 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$511
• Tax from tax record: −$44 /mo · $526/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$294
• Net cashflow: $512

Break-even live

Break-even rent $754

Max offer price $97,500

Occupancy floor 58%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $567	-5% $539	+0% $512	+5% $484	+10% $457
Rent	-10% $401	-5% $456	+0% $512	+5% $567	+10% $623
Rate	-1.0pp $561	-0.5pp $537	base $512	+0.5pp $487	+1.0pp $461

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,375
• Closing costs: $2,925
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
132 S Paseo Sarta Green Valley, AZ	1.0	1.0	588	$2,000	$3.40	0d	1	0.04mi
174 S Paseo Tierra Green Valley, AZ	1.0	1.0	588	$1,100	$1.87	0d	1	0.09mi
133 S Paseo Pena Green Valley, AZ	1.0	1.0	588	$1,095	$1.86	4d	1	0.16mi
430 S Paseo Pena Green Valley, AZ	2.0	1.0	696	$1,025	$1.47	16d	1	0.35mi
321 S Paseo Madera Unit A Green Valley, AZ	2.0	1.0	696	$1,250	$1.80	26d	1	0.38mi
303 S Paseo Lobo Green Valley, AZ	2.0	1.0	696	$1,000	$1.44	26d	1	0.40mi
262 S Paseo Cerro Green Valley, AZ	1.0	1.0	588	$1,200	$2.04	4d	1	0.42mi
262 S Paseo Cerro Unit B Green Valley, AZ	1.0	1.0	588	$1,200	$2.04	26d	1	0.42mi
466 S Paseo Madera Green Valley, AZ	2.0	1.0	696	$2,300	$3.30	19d	1	0.45mi
466 Paseo Madera Unit A Green Valley, AZ	2.0	1.0	696	$1,100	$1.58	19d	1	0.45mi
478 Paseo Madera Unit B Green Valley, AZ	1.0	1.0	588	$1,250	$2.13	26d	1	0.45mi
90 W Camino Manzana Green Valley, AZ	1.0	1.0	588	$2,000	$3.40	26d	1	0.54mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Likely covers: pool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $97,500 Pending 44 DOM
2. 2026-06-10
   days on market $97,500 Active Contingent 41 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $97,500 Active Contingent 40 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $97,500 Active Contingent 39 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $97,500 Active Contingent 38 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $97,500 Active Contingent 34 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   statusdays on market $97,500 Active Contingent 33 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $97,500 Active 32 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $97,500 Active 31 DOM
10. 2026-04-30
    listed $102,900 Active
11. 2023-04-25
    soldstatus $100,000
12. 2012-03-30
    soldstatus $33,600 Closed 32-char remark

    Show marketing remark (32 chars)

    SET BACK LOCATION CLOSE TO POOL.

13. 2004-08-25
    soldstatus $44,500
14. 2004-04-13
    soldstatus $30,000
15. 1992-04-27
    soldstatus $24,500
16. 1990-03-01
    soldstatus $22,000
17. 1985-06-01
    soldstatus $22,900
18. 1979-08-01
    soldstatus $30,500
19. 1978-09-01
    soldstatus $22,650

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $526 · $44/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $644 · $54/mo
• Expected delta: +$117/yr (+$10/mo · 22.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,825
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,462
• − Property taxes: −$526
• − Insurance: −$488
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,346
• − Management: −$1,346
• − Depreciation: −$2,836
• Taxable income: $4,822
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,157
• After-tax cash flow: $4,985/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Continental Elementary District (4416)
• NCES district ID: 0402250
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $48,475
• Composite: 33.08/100
• National rank: #5565
• State rank: #72 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Green Valley

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #165
• US rank: #18276

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Green Valley, AZ
• County: Pima County · 1,012,107 people
• City population: 25,381
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 25,381
• Household income: $64,879
• Rent vs Own: 16.7% rent · 83.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 860.0

Population outlook (Pima County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,066,056 people
• By 2030: 1,086,684 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 1,117,160 · +4.8%
• By 2050: 1,149,778 · +7.9%
• By 2075: 1,271,480 · +19.3%
• By 2100: 1,321,160 · +23.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 7% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Slovak 4% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 9% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% German/W. Germanic 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Pima

• 2024 margin: D (+15.2) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.1pp toward D · 2008: 6.1pp · 2024: 15.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.2 2020: D+18.7 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -231.05%
• Current HPI: 250.5933
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.60%
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+354.3% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Listed $102,900 MLSSAZ
• 2023-04-25 Sold (Public Records) $100,000 Public Records
• 2012-03-30 Sold (MLS) $33,600 MLSSAZ
• 2004-08-25 Sold (Public Records) $44,500 Public Records
• 2004-04-13 Sold (Public Records) $30,000 Public Records
• 1992-04-27 Sold (Public Records) $24,500 Public Records
• 1990-03-01 Sold (Public Records) $22,000 Public Records
• 1985-06-01 Sold (Public Records) $22,900 Public Records
• 1979-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $30,500 Public Records
• 1978-09-01 Sold (Public Records) $22,650 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $526 · +9.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.