16197 Western Echo Rd · Grangerland, TX 77302

$149,800

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,120 sqft · Manufactured public records · 10 Days on market

Built 1999 0.40 ac lot Est $158k · 5% under $33/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +9.8/15.0
• 1% rule +9.0/10.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Are you looking for affordable housing? Don't miss this adorable home! Roof was replaced in 2017, HVAC was replaced in 2016, hot water heater was replaced in 2015, updated light fixtures and fans, updated paint throughout most of home, flooring in kitchen and living area has been replaced. This home has a split floor plan and sitting on a large corner lot. Open living/kitchen concept with great storage. Low maintenance home features brick and vinyl siding. Close to The Woodlands, Conroe, shopping, hospitals, freeways (45 and 59). Very low taxes and NO MUD. Fridge, Washer/Dryer are negotiable with sale of home.

Key facts

• Fully fenced
• New flooring
• Freshly painted

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• FULLY FENCED
• NEW FLOORING
• FRESHLY PAINTED
• NEW LIGHTS
• NEWER HVAC

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lease not considered
• HOA & community: Lone Star Ranch POA with annual fee of $400

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 1999; Single-level living area of 1,120 (living area provided); Pillar/post/pier foundation; Composition roof
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Wood siding
• Exterior features: Corner lot in a subdivision

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range
• Bedrooms: 3 total rooms
• Flooring: Laminate (implied by laminate counters; no separate flooring entry provided)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Laminate countertops; Tub with shower

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $608 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Cap rate 11.2% vs local median 5.1% in Grangerland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: San Jacinto El (math 35% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,921 of 4,322 statewide, top 45%, 547 students, 81% FRL); Caney Creek H S (math 33% / reading 42%, grade F, #888 of 1,632 statewide, top 55%, 2,504 students, 79% FRL) — zoned schools average 80% FRL vs 34% district-wide (46 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 37% at this address vs 57% district-wide (-20 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Conroe ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 1116 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.3% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 14y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $149,800

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.40% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.16%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.39%
• DSCR: 1.77
• GRM: 5.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $157,920
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16212 Lone Star Ranch Dr	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,120 (0%)	5mo	$157,500	$141	86
16267 Kanani Ct	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,120 (0%)	1mo	$165,000	$147	81
16241 Sunny Morning Ct	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,120 (0%)	7mo	$120,000	$107	79
16132 Lone Star Ranch Dr	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,120 (0%)	3mo	$100,000	$89	74

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.3% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.36×
• Total profit: $15,126
• Equity at exit: $22,336

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.57×
• Total profit: $65,826
• Equity at exit: $12,952

Cash invested: $41,944 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77302

• Rents YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 1116
• Price-to-rent: 5.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,100 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax from tax record: −$170 /mo · $2,038/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$33
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$441
• Net cashflow: $608

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,330

Max offer price $149,800

Occupancy floor 66%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $693	-5% $650	+0% $608	+5% $566	+10% $523
Rent	-10% $442	-5% $525	+0% $608	+5% $691	+10% $774
Rate	-1.0pp $683	-0.5pp $646	base $608	+0.5pp $569	+1.0pp $530

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,450
• Closing costs: $4,494
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16703 Twisted Pine Dr Conroe, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–3.0	1671	$1,900	$1.14	0d	13	1.23mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $33 · $396/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-21
   pricedays on market $149,800 Active 10 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $159,800 Active 7 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $159,800 Active 6 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $159,800 Active 5 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $159,800 Active 4 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   remarks 307-char remark
7. 2026-06-13
   listed $159,800 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,038 · $170/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,741 · $228/mo
• Expected delta: +$703/yr (+$59/mo · 34.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,197
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,391
• − Property taxes: −$2,038
• − Insurance: −$749
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,016
• − Management: −$2,016
• − HOA: −$396
• − Depreciation: −$4,358
• Taxable income: $5,234
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,256
• After-tax cash flow: $6,040/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Grangerland

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 21,546
• Household income: $84,673
• Rent vs Own: 17.1% rent · 82.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 205.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 19% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 20% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -187.56%
• Current HPI: 262.1879
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.30%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+399.4% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Listed $159,800 HARMLS
• 2025-01-26 Rental Removed $1,500 HARMLS
• 2025-01-23 Listed for Rent $1,500 HARMLS
• 2019-11-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2018-06-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2018-06-26 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2018-06-19 Pending — HARMLS
• 2018-06-13 Pending — HARMLS
• 2018-06-12 Listed $79,900 HARMLS
• 2012-09-20 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2012-08-09 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2012-07-30 Listed $32,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+7.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,038 · +2.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.