3785 S Nine Mile Rd · Allegany, NY 14706

$160,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,800 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 131 Days on market

Built 1948 3.10 ac lot Est $221k · 28% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.4/30.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.5/10.0

Listing remarks

This is a Fannie Mae HomePath Property! Discover the elegance of this remodeled Colonial, situated across the river bank on a large 3.1 acres lot in picturesque Allegany, NY. This stunning 3 bedroom, 2 bath residence offers expansive finished areas, and beyond the doors, discover a secluded large backyard sanctuary, complete with a lot that offers a slice of peace and serenity. Experience suburban life with the luxury of space. This home is a rare find, so do not delay, call today!

Key facts

• Large 3.1 acres lot
• Remodeled colonial
• 3.1 acre lot

Tags

• REMODELED COLONIAL
• LARGE 3.1 ACRES LOT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-208 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $123k (22.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $123k (23.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $123k (23.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#395 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Allegany-Limestone Central School District (rural): math 55% / reading 67% proficiency, ranked #233 of 590 in NY (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Allegany-Limestone Elementary School (math 62% / reading 62%, grade B, #675 of 2,108 statewide, top 35%, 464 students, 43% FRL); Allegany-Limestone Middle-High School (math 52% / reading 70%, grade C+, #843 of 1,100 statewide, top 77%, 598 students, 39% FRL).
• Market conditions: 47 active listings in the ZIP; 128 units permitted in Cattaraugus County in 2024 (21 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $17k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Cattaraugus County population projected at -28% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 131 days — a 12% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $72k (31%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1948 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $123,031 (23.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 131 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1948 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.74%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.56%
• DSCR: 0.75
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $221,400
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
17 Oak St	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,650 (-8%)	7mo	$290,000	$176	49
157 N 2nd St	0.73mi	3/1.5	1,618 (-10%)	2mo	$175,000	$108	46
118 N 3rd St	0.62mi	3/1.5	1,540 (-14%)	8mo	$190,000	$123	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.65×
• Total profit: $73,978
• Equity at exit: $144,141

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.6%
• Equity multiple: 6.10×
• Total profit: $228,381
• Equity at exit: $310,845

Cash invested: $44,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14706

• Home prices YoY: 10.5%
• Active inventory: 47
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,230 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$274 /mo · $3,287/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$258
• Net cashflow: $-208

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,493

Max offer price $123,315

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-117	-5% $-162	+0% $-208	+5% $-253	+10% $-298
Rent	-10% $-305	-5% $-256	+0% $-208	+5% $-159	+10% $-110
Rate	-1.0pp $-127	-0.5pp $-167	base $-208	+0.5pp $-249	+1.0pp $-291

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,000
• Closing costs: $4,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-02-25
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-20
   price $160,000
3. 2026-02-04
   price $185,000
4. 2026-01-10
   price $199,900
5. 2025-12-12
   price $209,900
6. 2025-11-17
   price $219,900
7. 2025-10-16
   listed $231,750 Active
8. 2025-02-13
   status Pending
9. 2025-02-13
   historical
10. 2025-02-01
    status Active
11. 2025-01-17
    status Pending
12. 2024-09-20
    listed $230,000 Active
13. 2015-06-06
    historical
14. 2015-05-13
    listed $79,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,287 · $274/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,287 · $274/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 66% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,764
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,962
• − Property taxes: −$3,287
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,181
• − Management: −$1,181
• − Depreciation: −$4,655
• Taxable loss: −$5,302
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,273
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,219/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Allegany-Limestone Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3600015
• Math proficiency: 55% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 67% ▲ 17.00%
• Median HH income: $47,850
• Composite: 51.66/100
• National rank: #1696
• State rank: #233 of 590 in NY

Livability — Allegany

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #395
• US rank: #6843

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 6,118

Population outlook (Cattaraugus County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 71,623 people
• By 2030: 67,751 · -5.4%
• By 2040: 59,488 · -16.9%
• By 2050: 51,601 · -28.0%
• By 2075: 35,025 · -51.1%
• By 2100: 21,243 · -70.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 5% Black 3% Native American 2% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cattaraugus

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+32.8) · D 33.6% · R 66.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.2pp toward R · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -32.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+32.8 2020: R+29.5 2016: R+34.4 2012: R+13.4 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 24.72%
• Current HPI: 259.9141
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+100.3% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-25 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2026-02-20 Price Changed $160,000 UNYREIS
• 2026-02-04 Price Changed $185,000 UNYREIS
• 2026-01-10 Price Changed $199,900 UNYREIS
• 2025-12-12 Price Changed $209,900 UNYREIS
• 2025-11-17 Price Changed $219,900 UNYREIS
• 2025-10-16 Listed $231,750 UNYREIS
• 2025-02-13 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2025-02-13 Listing Removed — UNYREIS
• 2025-02-01 Relisted — UNYREIS
• 2025-01-17 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2024-09-20 Listed $230,000 UNYREIS
• 2015-06-06 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2015-05-13 Listed $79,900 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+1.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,287 · +0.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.