4858 Lynndale Rd · Graysville, AL 35073

$30,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 850 sqft · Land · 741 Days on market

Built 1970 1.01 ac lot ↓ 25% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.1/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Older mobile home on 1.01 acre of land.

Key facts

• Mobile home on land
• 1.01 acre lot
• Built 1970

Tags

• MOBILE HOME ON LAND

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath land listed at $30k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $491 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($850 rent vs $30k).
• Recommended offer: $26k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#321 in AL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Jefferson County (suburban): math 9% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #104 of 129 in AL (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 21 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,114 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (556 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($207 loan paydown + $1k appreciation (4.1% local appreciation)).
• Jefferson County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (4.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 741 days — a 12% lower offer ($26k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $26,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 741 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.83% ✓
• Cap rate: 25.95%
• Cash-on-cash: 70.20%
• DSCR: 4.12
• GRM: 2.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.12% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 75.8%
• Equity multiple: 5.37×
• Total profit: $36,723
• Equity at exit: $15,420

10-year hold

• IRR: 74.5%
• Equity multiple: 11.09×
• Total profit: $84,731
• Equity at exit: $25,390

Cash invested: $8,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35073

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Active inventory: 21
• Price-to-rent: 2.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $850 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$157
• Tax from tax record: −$10 /mo · $123/yr
• Insurance: −$12
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$178
• Net cashflow: $491

Break-even live

Break-even rent $228

Max offer price $30,000

Occupancy floor 37%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $508	-5% $500	+0% $491	+5% $483	+10% $474
Rent	-10% $424	-5% $458	+0% $491	+5% $525	+10% $559
Rate	-1.0pp $507	-0.5pp $499	base $491	+0.5pp $484	+1.0pp $476

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $7,500
• Closing costs: $900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
540 1st Ave NE Graysville, AL	2.0	2.0	882	$850	$0.96	4d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $30,000 Active 741 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $30,000 Active 740 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $30,000 Active 739 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $30,000 Active 738 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $30,000 Active 736 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $30,000 Active 733 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $30,000 Active 732 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $30,000 Active 731 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $30,000 Active 730 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $30,000 Active 726 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $30,000 Active 725 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $30,000 Active 724 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $30,000 Active 723 DOM
14. 2025-01-01
    price $30,000 39-char remark

    Show marketing remark (39 chars)

    Older mobile home on 1.01 acre of land.

15. 2024-06-07
    listed $40,000 Active 39-char remark

    Show marketing remark (39 chars)

    Older mobile home on 1.01 acre of land.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $123 · $10/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $123 · $10/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥106°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,200
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,680
• − Property taxes: −$123
• − Insurance: −$150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$816
• − Management: −$816
• − Depreciation: −$873
• Taxable income: $5,742
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,378
• After-tax cash flow: $4,519/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jefferson County
• NCES district ID: 0101920
• Math proficiency: 9% ▼ -24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $51,712
• Composite: 18.4/100
• National rank: #8937
• State rank: #104 of 129 in AL

Livability — Graysville

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #321
• US rank: #19807

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Graysville, AL
• Population (ZIP): 2,839

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 669,185 people
• By 2030: 669,694 · +0.1%
• By 2040: 661,388 · -1.2%
• By 2050: 643,086 · -3.9%
• By 2075: 577,267 · -13.7%
• By 2100: 474,758 · -29.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Black 27% Two or more races 4%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 2% Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: D (+10.4) · D 54.6% · R 44.2% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +5.4pp toward D · 2008: 5.1pp · 2024: 10.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.4 2020: D+13.2 2016: D+7.2 2012: D+6.0 2008: D+5.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.12%
• Current HPI: 176.8227
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

-25.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-01-01 Price Changed $30,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2024-06-07 Listed $40,000 Greater Alabama MLS

Property tax history

-0.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $123 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.