8865 E Baseline Rd Unit 74B · Mesa, AZ 85209

$255,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,176 sqft · Manufactured · 71 Days on market

Built 2023 Good condition $217/sqft · 42% above area Est $180k · 42% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.3/30.0
• Appreciation +5.7/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to a rare opportunity to own a home that truly lives better than new--where the upgrades are already complete, the details have been thoughtfully executed, and the work has been done for you. Built in 2023 and meticulously maintained, this 2-bedroom, 2-bath residence offers 1,056 sq ft of bright, open-concept living space enhanced by vaulted ceilings, abundant natural light, and a clean, modern design. The kitchen is both functional and inviting, featuring two-toned beadboard cabinetry, stainless steel appliances, Formica countertops, and a generous island that anchors the living space and creates an ideal setting for everyday living and entertaining. The dining area is elevated by a charming bay window that brings in additional light and dimension, creating a warm and welcoming space. The primary suite is designed for comfort and ease, offering dual vanities, a walk-in shower with bench seating, and a spacious walk-in closet, while the secondary bedroom provides flexibility for guests, hobbies, or a home office. What sets this home apart is the level of improvement beyond typical new construction. A full perimeter paver walkway, along with front and rear patio additions, creates multiple outdoor living spaces that extend the usability of the home. The screened carport with solar shades adds privacy and versatility, functioning as an additional shaded entertaining area. A standout feature is the 10' x 12' storage room, complete with drywall and its own mini-split system--offering valuable climate-controlled space ideal for a workshop, studio, or additional storage. Additional upgrades include an owned water softener system, providing everyday comfort and long-term value. Offered fully furnished with high-quality, thoughtfully selected pieces, this home delivers a true turnkey experience--allowing for immediate enjoyment without the added time or expense of furnishing. Located in the highly desirable Monte Vista Village Resort, a 55+ active adult community in Mesa, residents enjoy access to an exceptional array of amenities including multiple pools and spas, a fitness center, clubhouse, pickleball and tennis courts, shuffleboard, walking paths, dog park, and a vibrant calendar of social activities. Conveniently situated near shopping, dining, and everyday conveniences, this home offers not only quality and comfort, but the opportunity to enjoy a truly connected and resort-inspired lifestyle. Homes with this level of finish, functionality, thoughtful upgrades, and true turnkey furnishing are rarely available fully completed--offering a move-in ready experience without the time, cost, or effort of starting from scratch.

Key facts

• Charming bay window
• Generous island
• Dual vanities

Tags

• TWO-TONED BEADBOARD CABINETRY
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• GENEROUS ISLAND
• CHARMING BAY WINDOW
• DUAL VANITIES
• SPACIOUS WALK-IN CLOSET

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $255k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-47 ($-568/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $248k (2.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $217k (14.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $217k (14.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.4% in Mesa — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#6 in AZ, #2,034 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime D.
• Gilbert Unified District (4239) (suburban): math 49% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #38 of 249 in AZ (top 15%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 14% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 165 active listings in the ZIP; 31 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($84k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $4k appreciation (1.4% local appreciation)).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 71 days — a 6% lower offer ($240k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $217,078 (14.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 71 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.07%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.80%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $180,000
• List price: $255,000
• Delta: 41.67%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 11 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8865 E Baseline Rd #344	0.09mi	2/2.0	1,248 (+6%)	2mo	$180,000	$144	84
8865 E Baseline Rd #1207	0.09mi	1/1.5 (-1)	1,085 (-8%)	4mo	$45,000	$41	73
2206 S Ellsworth Rd Unit 129B	0.36mi	2/2.0	1,088 (-8%)	7mo	$110,000	$101	65
2206 S Ellsworth Rd Unit 149B	0.36mi	2/2.0	1,056 (-10%)	2mo	$235,000	$223	64
8865 E Baseline Rd #531	0.05mi	2/2.0	1,032 (-12%)	16mo	$168,000	$163	64
2550 S Ellsworth Rd #432	0.56mi	2/2.0	1,180 (+0%)	13mo	$150,000	$127	63
2550 S Ellsworth Rd #219	0.51mi	2/2.0	1,146 (-3%)	13mo	$95,000	$83	61
2550 S Ellsworth Rd #411	0.51mi	2/2.0	1,214 (+3%)	13mo	$200,000	$165	60
2206 S Ellsworth Rd Unit 157B	0.38mi	2/2.0	1,056 (-10%)	13mo	$325,000	$308	55
8865 E Baseline Rd #138	0.05mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,352 (+15%)	16mo	$225,000	$166	55
2550 S Ellsworth Rd #180	0.58mi	2/2.0	1,056 (-10%)	2mo	$105,000	$99	54
2550 S Ellsworth Rd #215	0.74mi	2/2.0	1,006 (-14%)	11mo	$125,000	$124	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.44% appreciation · 0.54% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.03×
• Total profit: $2,079
• Equity at exit: $92,943

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.45×
• Total profit: $32,408
• Equity at exit: $128,204

Cash invested: $71,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85209

• Home prices YoY: 0.5%
• Rents YoY: 0.5%
• Active inventory: 165
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,171 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,337
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$319 /mo · $3,825/yr
• Insurance: −$106
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$456
• Net cashflow: $-47

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,231

Max offer price $248,151

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $129	-5% $41	+0% $-47	+5% $-135	+10% $-224
Rent	-10% $-219	-5% $-133	+0% $-47	+5% $38	+10% $124
Rate	-1.0pp $81	-0.5pp $18	base $-47	+0.5pp $-113	+1.0pp $-181

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $63,750
• Closing costs: $7,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 31 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8865 E Baseline Rd #300 Mesa, AZ	1.0	1.0	764	$2,000	$2.62	19d	1	0.05mi
8865 E Baseline Rd #1129 Mesa, AZ	2.0	2.0	748	$3,200	$4.28	6d	1	0.05mi
8865 E Baseline Rd #1028 Mesa, AZ	2.0	1.0	1028	$1,500	$1.46	44d	1	0.09mi
2223 S Gordon Mesa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1278	$2,250	$1.76	25d	1	0.13mi
8865 E Baseline Rd #555 Mesa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1387	$3,900	$2.81	20d	1	0.17mi
8865 E Baseline Rd #555 Mesa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1387	$3,900	$2.81	25d	1	0.17mi
2206 S Ellsworth Rd Unit 94B Mesa, AZ	2.0	2.0	924	$3,702	$4.01	25d	1	0.35mi
2206 S Ellsworth Rd Unit 3B Mesa, AZ	2.0	2.0	976	$1,606	$1.65	15d	1	0.35mi
2206 S Ellsworth Rd Unit 101B Mesa, AZ	2.0	2.0	924	$1,555	$1.68	44d	1	0.35mi
8438 E Keats Ave Mesa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1363	$2,300	$1.69	25d	1	0.55mi
9335 E Baseline Rd Mesa, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1162	$1,717	$1.48	2d	14	0.66mi
9233 E Neville Ave Mesa, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0	1145	$1,575	$1.37	25d	1	0.74mi
9233 E Neville Ave Mesa, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0	1142	$1,575	$1.38	15d	3	0.74mi
9233 E Neville Ave #1088 Mesa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1057	$1,850	$1.75	6d	1	0.81mi
2024 S Baldwin #40 Mesa, AZ	3.0	2.5	1384	$1,800	$1.30	25d	1	0.84mi
2821 S Skyline #157 Mesa, AZ	2.0	2.5	1438	$2,200	$1.53	4d	1	0.86mi
8915 E Guadalupe Rd Mesa, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0	971	$1,390	$1.43	3d	11	0.89mi
8915 E Guadalupe Rd Mesa, AZ	2.0	2.0	1054	$1,390	$1.32	25d	1	0.89mi
2024 S Baldwin #154 Mesa, AZ	2.0	2.5	1200	$1,689	$1.41	17d	1	0.91mi
2024 S Baldwin #154 Mesa, AZ	2.0	2.5	1132	$1,689	$1.49	6d	1	0.91mi
2821 S Skyline #127 Mesa, AZ	2.0	2.5	1438	$2,350	$1.63	44d	1	0.92mi
2024 S Baldwin #114 Mesa, AZ	2.0	2.5	1148	$1,700	$1.48	12d	1	0.94mi
2024 S Baldwin #114 Mesa, AZ	2.0	2.5	1148	$1,700	$1.48	25d	1	0.94mi
8433 E Guadalupe Rd Mesa, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	936	$2,772	$2.96	2d	1	1.01mi
2311 S Farnsworth Dr #85 Mesa, AZ	2.0	2.0	1332	$3,300	$2.48	4d	1	1.02mi
2064 S Farnsworth Dr #25 Mesa, AZ	2.0	2.0	1011	$1,595	$1.58	22d	1	1.09mi
7950 E Keats Ave Mesa, AZ	2.0	2.0	1228	$1,995	$1.62	24d	1	1.11mi
8843 E Pampa Ave Mesa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1357	$2,050	$1.51	5d	1	1.14mi
8852 E Plana Ave Mesa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1357	$1,995	$1.47	44d	1	1.20mi
3121 S Mandy Mesa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1357	$2,190	$1.61	4d	1	1.20mi
8462 E Pampa Ave Mesa, AZ	3.0	2.5	1473	$1,995	$1.35	44d	1	1.21mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $255,000 Active 71 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $255,000 Active 70 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $255,000 Active 69 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $255,000 Active 68 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $255,000 Active 66 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $255,000 Active 62 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $255,000 Active 61 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $255,000 Active 60 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $255,000 Active 57 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $255,000 Active 56 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $255,000 Active 55 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $255,000 Active 54 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $255,000 Active 53 DOM
14. 2026-04-08
    listed $255,000 Active 2675-char remark

    Show marketing remark (2675 chars)

    Welcome to a rare opportunity to own a home that truly lives better than new--where the upgrades are already complete, the details have been thoughtfully executed, and the work has been done for you. Built in 2023 and meticulously maintained, this 2-bedroom, 2-bath residence offers 1,056 sq ft of bright, open-concept living space enhanced by vaulted ceilings, abundant natural light, and a clean, modern design. The kitchen is both functional and inviting, featuring two-toned beadboard cabinetry, stainless steel appliances, Formica countertops, and a generous island that anchors the living space and creates an ideal setting for everyday living and entertaining. The dining area is elevated by a charming bay window that brings in additional light and dimension, creating a warm and welcoming space. The primary suite is designed for comfort and ease, offering dual vanities, a walk-in shower with bench seating, and a spacious walk-in closet, while the secondary bedroom provides flexibility for guests, hobbies, or a home office. What sets this home apart is the level of improvement beyond typical new construction. A full perimeter paver walkway, along with front and rear patio additions, creates multiple outdoor living spaces that extend the usability of the home. The screened carport with solar shades adds privacy and versatility, functioning as an additional shaded entertaining area. A standout feature is the 10' x 12' storage room, complete with drywall and its own mini-split system--offering valuable climate-controlled space ideal for a workshop, studio, or additional storage. Additional upgrades include an owned water softener system, providing everyday comfort and long-term value. Offered fully furnished with high-quality, thoughtfully selected pieces, this home delivers a true turnkey experience--allowing for immediate enjoyment without the added time or expense of furnishing. Located in the highly desirable Monte Vista Village Resort, a 55+ active adult community in Mesa, residents enjoy access to an exceptional array of amenities including multiple pools and spas, a fitness center, clubhouse, pickleball and tennis courts, shuffleboard, walking paths, dog park, and a vibrant calendar of social activities. Conveniently situated near shopping, dining, and everyday conveniences, this home offers not only quality and comfort, but the opportunity to enjoy a truly connected and resort-inspired lifestyle. Homes with this level of finish, functionality, thoughtful upgrades, and true turnkey furnishing are rarely available fully completed--offering a move-in ready experience without the time, cost, or effort of starting from scratch.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥111°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,049
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,284
• − Property taxes: −$3,825
• − Insurance: −$1,275
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,084
• − Management: −$2,084
• − Depreciation: −$7,418
• Taxable loss: −$4,921
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,181
• After-tax cash flow: $613/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This home is in excellent condition with recent upgrades and a move-in-ready appearance. It offers a bright, open-concept living space with modern design and high-end finishes.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both Painting — Fresh paint can make a home look more appealing
• Both Blinds — Maintaining blinds ensures privacy and light control

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both Painting — Fresh paint can make a home look more appealing ↑
• Both Blinds — Maintaining blinds ensures privacy and light control ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gilbert Unified District (4239)
• NCES district ID: 0403400
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $74,715
• Composite: 45.55/100
• National rank: #2600
• State rank: #38 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Mesa

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #6
• US rank: #2034

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living C+ Crime D Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mesa, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 555,266
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 43,150
• Household income: $84,432
• Rent vs Own: 26.9% rent · 73.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 972.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 9% Black 4% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 9% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.44%
• Current HPI: 277.6198
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.54%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-08 Listed $255,000 ARMLS