148 Maegan Ln · Cedar Creek, TX 78612

$215,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured public records · 13 Days on market

Built 1998 1.43 ac lot Est $212k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.0/30.0
• ARV discount +6.9/15.0
• DSCR +6.7/10.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

FORECLOSURE PROPERTY TO BE SOLD IN 'AS IS' CONDITIONFEMA - Unknown Restrictions: Yes

Key facts

• Easy access
• Rv parking
• No hoa

Tags

• UNRESTRICTED ACRES
• NO HOA
• RV PARKING
• EASY ACCESS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Outside parking
• Utilities: Electricity connected; Public water; Septic tank
• Home design: Single-story home; Faces west; Resale property
• Construction: Built (year per public records); Pillar/post/pier foundation; Construction details: see remarks
• Exterior features: Porch; Wood fencing; Back yard; Medium-size trees

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven
• Bedrooms: 3 main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Main level primary bedroom; Window details: see remarks; Vinyl flooring
• Laundry & utility: Laundry on main level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $215k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $301 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $215k).
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 2.2% in Cedar Creek — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Bastrop ISD (rural): math 25% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #670 of 826 in TX (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 291 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,841 units permitted in Bastrop County in 2024 (150 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bastrop County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $215,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.00%
• DSCR: 1.27
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $212,352
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
220 Jeffrey Dr	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,504 (+12%)	15mo	$237,500	$158	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.74×
• Total profit: $-15,653
• Equity at exit: $32,057

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.18×
• Total profit: $11,084
• Equity at exit: $18,589

Cash invested: $60,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78612

• Home prices YoY: -10.1%
• Active inventory: 291
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,200 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax from tax record: −$220 /mo · $2,637/yr
• Insurance: −$90
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$462
• Net cashflow: $301

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,819

Max offer price $215,000

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $423	-5% $362	+0% $301	+5% $240	+10% $179
Rent	-10% $127	-5% $214	+0% $301	+5% $388	+10% $475
Rate	-1.0pp $409	-0.5pp $356	base $301	+0.5pp $245	+1.0pp $189

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,750
• Closing costs: $6,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
220 Jeffrey Dr Cedar Creek, TX	3.0	2.0	1504	$2,200	$1.46	44d	1	0.24mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $215,000 Active 13 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $215,000 Active 12 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $215,000 Active 11 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $215,000 Active 10 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $215,000 Active 8 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $215,000 Active 4 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $215,000 Active 3 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   remarks 693-char remark
9. 2026-06-07
   listed $215,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,637 · $220/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,934 · $328/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,298/yr (+$108/mo · 49.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,043
• − Property taxes: −$2,637
• − Insurance: −$1,075
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,112
• − Management: −$2,112
• − Depreciation: −$6,255
• Taxable income: $166
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$40
• After-tax cash flow: $3,574/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bastrop ISD
• NCES district ID: 4809570
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $56,010
• Composite: 23.87/100
• National rank: #7799
• State rank: #670 of 826 in TX

Livability — Cedar Creek

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cedar Creek, TX
• City population: 19,830
• Population (ZIP): 19,830

Population outlook (Bastrop County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 94,260 people
• By 2030: 101,355 · +7.5%
• By 2040: 115,578 · +22.6%
• By 2050: 129,464 · +37.3%
• By 2075: 168,068 · +78.3%
• By 2100: 194,857 · +106.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (60%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 60% Two or more races 36% White 31% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 43%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Iranian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 52% English-only · Spanish 47% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bastrop

• 2024 margin: R (+18.4) · D 40.2% · R 58.6% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: -8.2pp · 2024: -18.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.4 2020: R+13.8 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+17.0 2008: R+8.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -35.32%
• Current HPI: 314.1819
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+377.8% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Listed $215,000 Unlock MLS
• 2016-05-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2006-05-07 Sold (MLS) — Unlock MLS
• 2006-03-28 Delisted — Unlock MLS
• 2006-03-03 Listed $45,000 Unlock MLS

Property tax history

+4.8%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,637 · +10.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.