16072 Mahogany Way · Elmendorf, TX 78112

$269,060

5 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,971 sqft · SingleFamily · 45 Days on market

Built 2026 4,791 sqft lot $137/sqft · 24% below area Est $354k · 24% under $40/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +6.8/30.0
• Appreciation +4.9/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0
• DSCR +1.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Emory plan is one of our two-story homes featured in Hickory Ridge in Elmendorf, TX. This new home layout offers 2 classic front exteriors, 5 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, 2 car-garage and 1971 square feet of comfortable living. Step inside The Emory to find an elongated foyer opening to an open concept kitchen, dining area, and family room. The gourmet kitchen faces the living area so you don't miss a thing while cooking and includes quartz counter tops, stainless steel appliances and shaker style cabinetry. The main bedroom is located toward the back of the home on the first floor and features an attractive attached bathroom with a walk-in shower, quartz countertops, a grand walk-in closet and plenty of storage space. The second story includes all secondary bedrooms, a full bathroom with double-vanity sinks, and game room. You'll have carpeted floors in every bedroom and sheet vinyl flooring in your bathrooms and utility room. Additional features include sheet vinyl flooring in entry, living room, and all wet areas, quartz counter tops in all bathrooms and HOME IS CONNECTED base package. Using one central hub that talks to all the devices in your home, you can control the lights, thermostat and locks, all from your cellular device.

Key facts

• Open concept kitchen
• Attached bathroom
• Gourmet kitchen

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT KITCHEN
• GOURMET KITCHEN
• QUARTZ COUNTER TOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• SHAKER STYLE CABINETRY
• ATTACHED BATHROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $269k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-420 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $208k (22.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $187k (30.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $187k (30.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.4% vs local median 3.5% in Elmendorf — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,189 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• East Central ISD (rural): math 16% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #758 of 826 in TX (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Harmony El (math 21% / reading 17%, grade F, #3,739 of 4,322 statewide, top 87%, 684 students, 75% FRL); East Central Heritage Middle (math 11% / reading 26%, grade F, #1,478 of 1,662 statewide, top 90%, 1,120 students, 44% FRL); East Central H S (math 21% / reading 28%, grade F, #1,264 of 1,632 statewide, top 82%, 3,252 students, 52% FRL) — zoned schools at 57% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 451 active listings in the ZIP; 8,308 units permitted in Bexar County in 2024 (2,506 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $-444 appreciation (-0.2% local appreciation)).
• Bexar County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($261k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $187,284 (30.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.42%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.69%
• DSCR: 0.70
• GRM: 12.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $354,173
• List price: $269,060
• Delta: -24.03%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16072 Mahogany Way	0.00mi	5/2.5	1,971 (0%)	1mo	$269,060	$137	99
16079 Mahogany Way	0.03mi	5/2.5	1,971 (0%)	2mo	$269,660	$137	97
16083 Mahogany Way	0.04mi	5/2.5	1,892 (-4%)	1mo	$265,190	$140	91
16031 Mahogany Way	0.09mi	5/2.5	1,892 (-4%)	0mo	$264,690	$140	89
17439 Yellow Pine Dr	0.46mi	4/3.0 (-1)	1,956 (-1%)	0mo	$349,990	$179	70
16510 Red Pne	0.47mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,975 (+0%)	6mo	$304,756	$154	66
8551 Catnip Pass	0.54mi	4/2.5 (-1)	1,940 (-2%)	3mo	$285,975	$147	65
16602 Red Pne	0.49mi	4/3.0 (-1)	1,917 (-3%)	4mo	$322,990	$168	62
16307 Ginger Xing	0.42mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,109 (+7%)	4mo	$324,990	$154	61
16646 Rosemary Rdg	0.51mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,045 (+4%)	5mo	$347,603	$170	61
8550 Catnip Pass	0.55mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,111 (+7%)	1mo	$294,990	$140	57
8826 Black Oak Dr	0.63mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,111 (+7%)	6mo	$284,990	$135	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.17% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.51×
• Total profit: $-36,642
• Equity at exit: $75,912

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.56×
• Total profit: $-33,163
• Equity at exit: $89,500

Cash invested: $75,337 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78112

• Home prices YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 451
• Price-to-rent: 12.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,873 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,411
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$336 /mo · $4,036/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$40
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$393
• Net cashflow: $-420

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,404

Max offer price $208,304

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-234	-5% $-327	+0% $-420	+5% $-513	+10% $-606
Rent	-10% $-568	-5% $-494	+0% $-420	+5% $-346	+10% $-272
Rate	-1.0pp $-284	-0.5pp $-351	base $-420	+0.5pp $-490	+1.0pp $-561

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,265
• Closing costs: $8,072
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $40 · $480/yr
• Likely covers: security

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-04
   status Pending 1270-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1270 chars)

   The Emory plan is one of our two-story homes featured in Hickory Ridge in Elmendorf, TX. This new home layout offers 2 classic front exteriors, 5 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, 2 car-garage and 1971 square feet of comfortable living. Step inside The Emory to find an elongated foyer opening to an open concept kitchen, dining area, and family room. The gourmet kitchen faces the living area so you don't miss a thing while cooking and includes quartz counter tops, stainless steel appliances and shaker style cabinetry. The main bedroom is located toward the back of the home on the first floor and features an attractive attached bathroom with a walk-in shower, quartz countertops, a grand walk-in closet and plenty of storage space. The second story includes all secondary bedrooms, a full bathroom with double-vanity sinks, and game room. You'll have carpeted floors in every bedroom and sheet vinyl flooring in your bathrooms and utility room. Additional features include sheet vinyl flooring in entry, living room, and all wet areas, quartz counter tops in all bathrooms and HOME IS CONNECTED base package. Using one central hub that talks to all the devices in your home, you can control the lights, thermostat and locks, all from your cellular device.

2. 2026-04-04
   price $269,060 1270-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1270 chars)

   The Emory plan is one of our two-story homes featured in Hickory Ridge in Elmendorf, TX. This new home layout offers 2 classic front exteriors, 5 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, 2 car-garage and 1971 square feet of comfortable living. Step inside The Emory to find an elongated foyer opening to an open concept kitchen, dining area, and family room. The gourmet kitchen faces the living area so you don't miss a thing while cooking and includes quartz counter tops, stainless steel appliances and shaker style cabinetry. The main bedroom is located toward the back of the home on the first floor and features an attractive attached bathroom with a walk-in shower, quartz countertops, a grand walk-in closet and plenty of storage space. The second story includes all secondary bedrooms, a full bathroom with double-vanity sinks, and game room. You'll have carpeted floors in every bedroom and sheet vinyl flooring in your bathrooms and utility room. Additional features include sheet vinyl flooring in entry, living room, and all wet areas, quartz counter tops in all bathrooms and HOME IS CONNECTED base package. Using one central hub that talks to all the devices in your home, you can control the lights, thermostat and locks, all from your cellular device.

3. 2026-03-20
   listed $281,060 New 1270-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1270 chars)

   The Emory plan is one of our two-story homes featured in Hickory Ridge in Elmendorf, TX. This new home layout offers 2 classic front exteriors, 5 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, 2 car-garage and 1971 square feet of comfortable living. Step inside The Emory to find an elongated foyer opening to an open concept kitchen, dining area, and family room. The gourmet kitchen faces the living area so you don't miss a thing while cooking and includes quartz counter tops, stainless steel appliances and shaker style cabinetry. The main bedroom is located toward the back of the home on the first floor and features an attractive attached bathroom with a walk-in shower, quartz countertops, a grand walk-in closet and plenty of storage space. The second story includes all secondary bedrooms, a full bathroom with double-vanity sinks, and game room. You'll have carpeted floors in every bedroom and sheet vinyl flooring in your bathrooms and utility room. Additional features include sheet vinyl flooring in entry, living room, and all wet areas, quartz counter tops in all bathrooms and HOME IS CONNECTED base package. Using one central hub that talks to all the devices in your home, you can control the lights, thermostat and locks, all from your cellular device.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,474
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,072
• − Property taxes: −$4,036
• − Insurance: −$1,345
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,798
• − Management: −$1,798
• − HOA: −$480
• − Depreciation: −$7,827
• Taxable loss: −$9,882
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,372
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,667/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: East Central ISD
• NCES district ID: 4817850
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $53,941
• Composite: 18.67/100
• National rank: #8887
• State rank: #758 of 826 in TX

Livability — Elmendorf

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #1189
• US rank: #20804

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Elmendorf, TX
• Population (ZIP): 9,959

Population outlook (Bexar County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,336,851 people
• By 2030: 2,560,728 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 3,020,569 · +29.3%
• By 2050: 3,493,522 · +49.5%
• By 2075: 4,668,459 · +99.8%
• By 2100: 5,533,242 · +136.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 72% Two or more races 39% White 24% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 64%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada
• Languages at home: 57% English-only · Spanish 42% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bexar

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.8) · D 54.3% · R 44.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.2pp toward D · 2008: 5.6pp · 2024: 9.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.8 2020: D+18.2 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+4.6 2008: D+5.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.17%
• Current HPI: 276.3302
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-4.3% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Pending — LERA
• 2026-04-04 Price Changed $269,060 LERA
• 2026-03-20 Listed $281,060 LERA