18227 Kettle Lake Pl · Lakewood Ranch, FL 34211

$587,999

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,244 sqft · SingleFamily · 150 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 3-car garage $262/sqft · 31% below area Est $850k · 31% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Schools +6.9/10.0
• DSCR +5.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This spacious single-story home features a formal dining room with elegant arched doorways, followed by an open layout among the Great Room, kitchen and breakfast nook, with access to a covered lanai. In addition to the owner's suite, are three secondary bedrooms and a three-bay garage for versatile needs.

Key facts

• Formal dining room
• Arched doorways
• Open layout

Tags

• FORMAL DINING ROOM
• ARCHED DOORWAYS
• OPEN LAYOUT
• GREAT ROOM
• COVERED LANAI

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $588k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $585 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($6k rent vs $588k).
• Recommended offer: $517k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 2.9% in Lakewood Ranch — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Robert Willis Elementary School (math 83% / reading 79%, grade A+, #95 of 2,144 statewide, top 5%, 765 students, 22% FRL); R. Dan Nolan Middle School (math 79% / reading 72%, grade A, #38 of 571 statewide, top 7%, 760 students, 28% FRL); Lakewood Ranch High School (math 47% / reading 63%, grade C, #135 of 667 statewide, top 20%, 2,435 students, 22% FRL) — zoned schools average 24% FRL vs 51% district-wide (27 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 70% at this address vs 52% district-wide (+18 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Manatee average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.2%/yr); 1554 active listings in the ZIP; 24 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 115d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $5,885/mo this rent would consume 59% of the median local household income ($120k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $18k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 150 days — a 12% lower offer ($517k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $517,439 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 150 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.27%
• DSCR: 1.19
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $849,574
• List price: $587,999
• Delta: -30.79%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
17610 Polo Trl	0.55mi	4/2.0	2,268 (+1%)	6mo	$693,900	$306	67
17932 Polo Trl	0.69mi	4/2.0	2,268 (+1%)	1mo	$750,000	$331	65
17850 Polo Trl	0.61mi	4/2.0	2,257 (+1%)	7mo	$699,000	$310	65
18025 Harwich Pl	0.44mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,128 (-5%)	1mo	$779,000	$366	61
7412 Summerland Cv	0.47mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,084 (-7%)	0mo	$595,000	$286	61
7710 Summerland Cv	0.55mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,084 (-7%)	4mo	$755,000	$362	55
18025 Northwood Pl	0.32mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,518 (+12%)	3mo	$835,000	$332	53
17418 Blue Ridge Pl	0.73mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,198 (-2%)	3mo	$620,000	$282	51
17802 Eastbrook Ter	0.37mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,508 (+12%)	6mo	$850,000	$339	49
6534 Clairborne Ln	0.73mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,219 (-1%)	7mo	$670,000	$302	49
17614 Polo Trl	0.54mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,455 (+9%)	5mo	$775,000	$316	46
17619 Blue Ridge Pl	0.66mi	4/3.0	2,546 (+14%)	5mo	$725,000	$285	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.54×
• Total profit: $-75,156
• Equity at exit: $87,673

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-83,725
• Equity at exit: $50,839

Cash invested: $164,640 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 16 active · 13 under contract
• Months of supply: 5.3 mo (19%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $761,204 ($325/sqft)
• Median days on market: 47 d
• This list price: 19% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +16.6% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 34211

• Home prices YoY: -27.5%
• Rents YoY: -5.2%
• Active inventory: 1554
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,885 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,084
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$735 /mo · $8,820/yr
• Insurance: −$245
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,236
• Net cashflow: $585

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,144

Max offer price $587,999

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $992	-5% $789	+0% $585	+5% $382	+10% $179
Rent	-10% $120	-5% $353	+0% $585	+5% $818	+10% $1,050
Rate	-1.0pp $881	-0.5pp $735	base $585	+0.5pp $433	+1.0pp $278

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $147,000
• Closing costs: $17,640
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 24 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
18114 Waterville Pl Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	2054	$10,000	$4.87	119d	1	0.18mi
17850 Polo Trl Bradenton, FL	4.0	2.0	2257	$5,000	$2.22	0d	1	0.60mi
7675 Summerland Cv Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	2084	$5,000	$2.40	119d	1	0.63mi
6647 Clairborne Ln Bradenton, FL	3.0	3.0	1836	$3,595	$1.96	119d	1	0.75mi
17335 Blue Ridge Pl Bradenton, FL	3.0	3.0	2201	$3,950	$1.79	119d	1	0.80mi
17335 Blue Ridge Pl Bradenton, FL	3.0	3.0	2201	$3,950	$1.79	0d	1	0.80mi
7857 Redonda Loop Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.5	2292	$4,500	$1.96	9d	1	1.04mi
17006 Blue Ridge Pl Bradenton, FL	4.0	3.0	2529	$3,495	$1.38	119d	1	1.14mi
18114 Gawthrop Dr Bradenton, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1310	$7,000	$5.34	82d	4	1.16mi
18114 Gawthrop Dr Bradenton, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1300	$7,000	$5.38	119d	5	1.16mi
18028 Gawthrop Dr Bradenton, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1310	$6,000	$4.58	2d	5	1.17mi
18028 Gawthrop Dr Bradenton, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1310	$6,000	$4.58	93d	7	1.17mi
17810 Gawthrop Dr Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1786	$5,000	$2.80	6d	2	1.18mi
17810 Gawthrop Dr Bradenton, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1453	$4,000	$2.75	114d	2	1.18mi
17810 Gawthrop Dr Bradenton, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1453	$6,000	$4.13	9d	3	1.18mi
7342 Divot Loop Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1748	$2,800	$1.60	99d	1	1.20mi
18117 Gawthrop Dr #104 Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1786	$4,000	$2.24	119d	1	1.22mi
18017 Gawthrop Dr #104 Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1786	$6,000	$3.36	119d	1	1.22mi
17815 Gawthrop Dr #101 Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1786	$7,500	$4.20	0d	1	1.25mi
17704 Gawthrop Dr Unit 1545826P Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1431	$3,163	$2.21	110d	1	1.25mi
17021 Polo Trl Bradenton, FL	3.0	3.0	2650	$5,900	$2.23	119d	1	1.27mi
7564 Divot Loop Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1748	$7,250	$4.15	9d	1	1.34mi
6026 Brandon Run Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	2246	$12,000	$5.34	119d	1	1.44mi
5947 Brandon Run Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	2200	$13,000	$5.91	119d	1	1.46mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 18227 Kettle Lake Pl, Bradenton, FL 34211Status: ActiveLast modified: 2026-05-21
• Financial info: List price $585,999

Exterior

• Parking: 3-car garage / 3 total parking spaces
• Home design: Single-family home (Princeton plan)
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 2,244

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Spec new construction (Princeton plan)

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-22
   days on market $587,999 Active 150 DOM
2. 2026-09-21
   days on market $587,999 Active 149 DOM
3. 2026-09-20
   days on market $587,999 Active 148 DOM
4. 2026-09-19
   days on market $587,999 Active 147 DOM
5. 2026-09-18
   days on market $587,999 Active 146 DOM
6. 2026-09-17
   days on market $587,999 Active 145 DOM
7. 2026-09-16
   days on market $587,999 Active 144 DOM
8. 2026-09-15
   days on market $587,999 Active 143 DOM
9. 2026-09-14
   days on market $587,999 Active 142 DOM
10. 2026-09-13
    days on market $587,999 Active 141 DOM
11. 2026-09-12
    days on market $587,999 Active 140 DOM
12. 2026-09-11
    days on market $587,999 Active 139 DOM
13. 2026-09-05
    days on market $587,999 Active 133 DOM
14. 2026-09-04
    days on market $587,999 Active 132 DOM
15. 2026-09-03
    pricedays on market $587,999 Active 131 DOM
16. 2026-08-31
    days on market $585,999 Active 128 DOM
17. 2026-08-30
    days on market $585,999 Active 127 DOM
18. 2026-08-29
    days on market $585,999 Active 126 DOM
19. 2026-08-28
    days on market $585,999 Active 125 DOM
20. 2026-08-27
    days on market $585,999 Active 124 DOM
21. 2026-08-26
    days on market $585,999 Active 123 DOM
22. 2026-08-25
    days on market $585,999 Active 122 DOM
23. 2026-08-24
    days on market $585,999 Active 121 DOM
24. 2026-08-23
    days on market $585,999 Active 120 DOM
25. 2026-08-22
    days on market $585,999 Active 119 DOM
26. 2026-08-21
    days on market $585,999 Active 118 DOM
27. 2026-08-20
    days on market $585,999 Active 117 DOM
28. 2026-08-19
    days on market $585,999 Active 116 DOM
29. 2026-08-18
    days on market $585,999 Active 115 DOM
30. 2026-08-17
    days on market $585,999 Active 114 DOM
31. 2026-08-16
    days on market $585,999 Active 113 DOM
32. 2026-08-15
    days on market $585,999 Active 112 DOM
33. 2026-08-14
    days on market $585,999 Active 111 DOM
34. 2026-08-13
    days on market $585,999 Active 110 DOM
35. 2026-08-12
    days on market $585,999 Active 109 DOM
36. 2026-08-11
    days on market $585,999 Active 108 DOM
37. 2026-08-10
    days on market $585,999 Active 107 DOM
38. 2026-08-09
    days on market $585,999 Active 106 DOM
39. 2026-08-08
    days on market $585,999 Active 105 DOM
40. 2026-08-07
    days on market $585,999 Active 104 DOM
41. 2026-08-06
    days on market $585,999 Active 103 DOM
42. 2026-08-05
    days on market $585,999 Active 102 DOM
43. 2026-08-04
    days on market $585,999 Active 101 DOM
44. 2026-08-03
    days on market $585,999 Active 100 DOM
45. 2026-07-31
    days on market $585,999 Active 97 DOM
46. 2026-07-30
    days on market $585,999 Active 95 DOM
47. 2026-07-28
    days on market $585,999 Active 94 DOM
48. 2026-07-24
    days on market $585,999 Active 90 DOM
49. 2026-07-23
    days on market $585,999 Active 89 DOM
50. 2026-07-22
    days on market $585,999 Active 88 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 28 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $70,616
• − Mortgage interest: −$32,937
• − Property taxes: −$8,820
• − Insurance: −$2,940
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,649
• − Management: −$5,649
• − Depreciation: −$17,105
• Taxable loss: −$2,485
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$596
• After-tax cash flow: $7,621/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This spacious single-story home is in good condition with modern finishes and a well-maintained exterior. It offers a good investment opportunity with potential for minor updates to enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers ↑
• Both Add smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value ↑

C Composite school gradezoned avg 69/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary B.d. Gullett Elementary School A FL #211/2,144 Nat'l #2,011/41,679 Middle R. Dan Nolan Middle School A FL #38/571 Nat'l #472/14,009 High Lakewood Ranch High School C FL #135/667 Nat'l #4,413/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lakewood Ranch

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lakewood Ranch, FL
• County: Manatee County · 447,342 people
• City population: 52,177
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 24,980
• Household income: $119,911
• Rent vs Own: 21.7% rent · 78.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 10% of renters

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Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 10% Asian 3% Black 2% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Romanian 3% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

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Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -100.84%
• Current HPI: 265.946
• Rent YoY: ▼ -5.17%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 18227 Kettle Lake Pl, Bradenton, FL 34211Status: ActiveLast modified: 2026-05-21
• Financial info: List price $585,999

Exterior

• Parking: 3-car garage / 3 total parking spaces
• Home design: Single-family home (Princeton plan)
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 2,244

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Spec new construction (Princeton plan)