2100 Soapmine Rd #44 · Barstow, CA 92311

$15,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 672 sqft · Manufactured public records · 98 Days on market

Built 1973 $22/sqft · 27% below area Est $22k · 32% under ↓ 25% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

While this mobile home would benefit from a bit of TLC, it holds great potential to become a charming and comfortable space. Conveniently located just minutes from the drive-in theater and close to local shops. With such an attractive price, you won’t want to let this unique opportunity slip by—act quickly and make this home your own!

Key facts

• Built 1973
• Listed 98 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $15k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $942 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $15k).
• Recommended offer: $14k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 81.7% vs local median 4.6% in Barstow — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#444 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities C-, health & safety C-, schools F.
• Barstow Unified (town): math 11% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #482 of 517 in CA (top 93%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 343 active listings in the ZIP; 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $104 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $450 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.3% rent growth), your $4k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 98 days — a 9% lower offer ($14k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $13,650 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 98 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 8.70% ✓
• Cap rate: 81.66%
• Cash-on-cash: 269.16%
• DSCR: 12.98
• GRM: 1.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $22,139
• List price: $15,000
• Delta: -32.25%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 14.50×
• Total profit: $56,693
• Equity at exit: $2,237

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 30.30×
• Total profit: $123,080
• Equity at exit: $1,297

Cash invested: $4,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92311

• Home prices YoY: -30.6%
• Rents YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 343
• Price-to-rent: 1.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,305 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$79
• Tax from tax record: −$4 /mo · $51/yr
• Insurance: −$6
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$274
• Net cashflow: $942

Break-even live

Break-even rent $113

Max offer price $15,000

Occupancy floor 23%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $3,750
• Closing costs: $450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $15,000 Active 98 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $15,000 Active 97 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $15,000 Active 96 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $15,000 Active 95 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $15,000 Active 93 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $15,000 Active 92 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $15,000 Active 89 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $15,000 Active 88 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $15,000 Active 87 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $15,000 Active 84 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $15,000 Active 83 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $15,000 Active 82 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $15,000 Active 81 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $15,000 Active 80 DOM
15. 2026-05-19
    price $15,000 348-char remark

    Show marketing remark (348 chars)

    While this mobile home would benefit from a bit of TLC, it holds great potential to become a charming and comfortable space. Conveniently located just minutes from the drive-in theater and close to local shops. With such an attractive price, you won’t want to let this unique opportunity slip by—act quickly and make this home your own!

16. 2026-03-12
    listed $20,000 Active 348-char remark

    Show marketing remark (348 chars)

    While this mobile home would benefit from a bit of TLC, it holds great potential to become a charming and comfortable space. Conveniently located just minutes from the drive-in theater and close to local shops. With such an attractive price, you won’t want to let this unique opportunity slip by—act quickly and make this home your own!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $51 · $4/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $114 · $10/mo
• Expected delta: +$63/yr (+$5/mo · 123.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 11 unhealthy d/yr today · 15 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,664
• − Mortgage interest: −$840
• − Property taxes: −$51
• − Insurance: −$75
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,253
• − Management: −$1,253
• − Depreciation: −$436
• Taxable income: $11,755
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,821
• After-tax cash flow: $8,483/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Barstow Unified
• NCES district ID: 0604020
• Math proficiency: 11% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 22% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $44,505
• Composite: 14.44/100
• National rank: #9430
• State rank: #482 of 517 in CA

Livability — Barstow

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #444
• US rank: #15099

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute A+ Cost of living B- Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Barstow, CA
• County: San Bernardino County · 2,030,291 people
• City population: 33,954
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 33,954
• Household income: $61,862
• Rent vs Own: 50.0% rent · 50.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1305.0

Population outlook (San Bernardino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,300,329 people
• By 2030: 2,378,907 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 2,523,137 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 2,642,388 · +14.9%
• By 2075: 2,880,769 · +25.2%
• By 2100: 2,909,436 · +26.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 46% White 29% Two or more races 22% Black 15% Native American 3% Asian 2% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 39% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 1% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 20% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Bernardino

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.7% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.5pp toward R · 2008: 6.3pp · 2024: -2.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.1 2020: D+10.7 2016: D+9.8 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -139.26%
• Current HPI: 316.4858
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.32%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-25.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $15,000 CRMLS
• 2026-03-12 Listed $20,000 CRMLS