635 County Road 2175 · Shepherd, TX 77371

$220,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,800 sqft · Manufactured · 125 Days on market

Built 2018 2.00 ac lot $122/sqft · at area comps Est $215k · at est. ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.7/30.0
• ARV discount +6.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.1/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover this beautiful 4-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home built in 2018, perfectly designed for modern living. The open-concept floor plan features a spacious living area, walk-in pantry, and a stylish kitchen with a large island, farmhouse sink, and a charming breakfast nook/coffee corner. This property is a rare find—offering a total of 2 acres! The home sits on one acre, and the adjoining one-acre lot is included in the sale, giving you plenty of room for outdoor living, future expansion, or simply enjoying wide-open space. Experience the best of country living with modern comfort, all while being just minutes from US-59 for an easy commute. Don’t miss your chance to own a move-in ready home with room to grow!

Key facts

• Breakfast nook
• Large island
• Farmhouse sink

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN
• WALK-IN PANTRY
• LARGE ISLAND
• FARMHOUSE SINK
• BREAKFAST NOOK
• TWO ACRES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-144 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $199k (9.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $174k (20.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $174k (20.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 4.5% in Shepherd — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,112 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Tarkington ISD (rural): math 43% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #373 of 826 in TX (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Tarkington Early Childhood School (math 32% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,769 of 4,322 statewide, top 44%, 193 students, 66% FRL); Tarkington Middle (math 45% / reading 32%, grade F, #704 of 1,662 statewide, top 43%, 414 students, 58% FRL); Tarkington H S (math 32% / reading 47%, grade F, #821 of 1,632 statewide, top 53%, 513 students, 48% FRL).
• Market conditions: 148 active listings in the ZIP; 1,321 units permitted in Liberty County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $363 appreciation (0.2% local appreciation)).
• Liberty County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 125 days — a 12% lower offer ($194k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $174,165 (20.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 125 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.50%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.81%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $215,000
• List price: $220,000
• Delta: 2.33%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

0.17% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.77×
• Total profit: $-13,897
• Equity at exit: $65,704

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.11×
• Total profit: $6,969
• Equity at exit: $80,450

Cash invested: $61,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77371

• Home prices YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 148
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,742 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,154
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$275 /mo · $3,300/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$366
• Net cashflow: $-144

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,925

Max offer price $199,095

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $8	-5% $-68	+0% $-144	+5% $-220	+10% $-297
Rent	-10% $-282	-5% $-213	+0% $-144	+5% $-76	+10% $-7
Rate	-1.0pp $-34	-0.5pp $-89	base $-144	+0.5pp $-201	+1.0pp $-259

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,000
• Closing costs: $6,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $220,000 Active 125 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $220,000 Active 122 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $220,000 Active 121 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $220,000 Active 120 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $220,000 Active 119 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $220,000 Active 117 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $220,000 Active 113 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $220,000 Active 112 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $220,000 Active 111 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $220,000 Active 108 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $220,000 Active 107 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $220,000 Active 106 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $220,000 Active 105 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $220,000 Active 104 DOM
15. 2026-02-16
    listed $220,000 Active 738-char remark

    Show marketing remark (738 chars)

    Discover this beautiful 4-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home built in 2018, perfectly designed for modern living. The open-concept floor plan features a spacious living area, walk-in pantry, and a stylish kitchen with a large island, farmhouse sink, and a charming breakfast nook/coffee corner. This property is a rare find—offering a total of 2 acres! The home sits on one acre, and the adjoining one-acre lot is included in the sale, giving you plenty of room for outdoor living, future expansion, or simply enjoying wide-open space. Experience the best of country living with modern comfort, all while being just minutes from US-59 for an easy commute. Don’t miss your chance to own a move-in ready home with room to grow!

16. 2026-01-31
    historical
17. 2025-11-14
    price $220,000
18. 2025-11-04
    status Active
19. 2025-10-31
    historical
20. 2025-09-05
    listed $250,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,900
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,323
• − Property taxes: −$3,300
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,672
• − Management: −$1,672
• − Depreciation: −$6,400
• Taxable loss: −$5,568
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,336
• After-tax cash flow: $-397/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tarkington ISD
• NCES district ID: 4842210
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $50,895
• Composite: 35.02/100
• National rank: #5044
• State rank: #373 of 826 in TX

Livability — Shepherd

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1112
• US rank: #19716

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 7,548

Population outlook (Liberty County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 87,956 people
• By 2030: 92,161 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 100,784 · +14.6%
• By 2050: 109,471 · +24.5%
• By 2075: 133,470 · +51.7%
• By 2100: 147,372 · +67.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 26% Black 12% Two or more races 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 22%

Political lean MEDSL · Liberty

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.6) · D 19.0% · R 80.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -43.7pp · 2024: -61.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.6 2020: R+59.7 2016: R+58.0 2012: R+53.3 2008: R+43.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.17%
• Current HPI: 201.6618
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-12.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-16 Listed $220,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-11-14 Price Changed $220,000 HARMLS
• 2025-11-04 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2025-10-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-09-05 Listed $250,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

-6.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $240 · -61.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.