Sunbury Plan · Allenhurst, GA 31301

$294,900

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,254 sqft · SingleFamily · 487 Days on market

Excellent condition $34/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.1/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Sunbury is one of our favorites and once inside, you'll see why! This floor plan has everything you want including BRICK at a price almost anyone can afford. Display your family collage along the foyer corridor which leads to a cozy great room featuring an electric fireplace. The kitchen with stunning shaker cabinets and the breakfast nook are adjacent to the great room so the cook never misses out on the party! An island in the kitchen is the perfect work space for finishing touches before taking the meal to the formal dining room, featuring a bay window and coffered ceiling. Upstairs is the family retreat. The master suite is enormous and includes a sitting room & extra large walk-in closet. The additional bedrooms are spacious and share an upstairs hall bath. Artistic renderings are for informational purposes only. Actual floor plans, features and inclusions may vary.

Key facts

• Breakfast nook
• Formal dining room
• Bay window

Tags

• ELECTRIC FIREPLACE
• SHAKER CABINETS
• BREAKFAST NOOK
• ISLAND IN KITCHEN
• FORMAL DINING ROOM
• BAY WINDOW

🏗️ New construction. The $294,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $301,715.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $295k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-64 ($-770/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $292k (0.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $260k (11.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $260k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#319 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Long County (rural): math 26% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #115 of 174 in GA (top 66%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Smiley Elementary School (1,258 students, 67% FRL); Long County Middle School (math 21% / reading 27%, grade F, #311 of 470 statewide, top 68%, 945 students, 69% FRL); Long County High School (math 37% / reading 22%, grade F, #140 of 424 statewide, top 35%, 1,209 students, 70% FRL).
• Market conditions: 186 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 139d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 298 units permitted in Long County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,601/mo this rent would consume 48% of the median local household income ($65k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $468 appreciation (0.2% local appreciation)).
• Long County population projected at +72% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 487 days — a 12% lower offer ($260k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $259,512 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 487 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.04%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.91%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $301,715
• List price: $294,900
• Delta: -2.26%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1105 Buckhead Loop SE	0.52mi	4/2.5	2,254 (0%)	9mo	$312,495	$139	68
874 Buckhead Loop SE	0.47mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,256 (+0%)	5mo	$320,675	$142	66
836 Buckhead Loop SE	0.52mi	4/2.5	2,395 (+6%)	3mo	$316,800	$132	62
147 Antler Avenue Ave	0.57mi	4/2.5	2,395 (+6%)	2mo	$324,900	$136	62
549 Buckhead Loop SE	0.52mi	4/2.5	2,065 (-8%)	2mo	$296,975	$144	60
802 Buckhead Loop SE	0.52mi	4/2.5	2,065 (-8%)	3mo	$296,375	$144	59
916 Buckhead Loop SE	0.47mi	4/2.5	2,065 (-8%)	6mo	$306,210	$148	58
200 Antler Ave SE	0.63mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,256 (+0%)	7mo	$308,875	$137	58
702 Buckhead Loop SE	0.52mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,415 (+7%)	4mo	$322,425	$134	54
631 Buckhead Loop SE	0.52mi	4/3.0	1,984 (-12%)	4mo	$315,475	$159	50
439 Buckhead Loop SE	0.54mi	4/2.0	1,926 (-15%)	3mo	$310,025	$161	46
218 Antler Ave	0.65mi	4/3.0	1,984 (-12%)	9mo	$296,450	$149	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.16% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.87×
• Total profit: $-10,641
• Equity at exit: $89,960

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.33×
• Total profit: $27,814
• Equity at exit: $110,031

Cash invested: $84,480 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 29 active · 28 under contract
• Months of supply: 7.6 mo (13%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $298,925 ($145/sqft)
• Median days on market: 163 d
• This list price: 48% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -7.5% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 31301

• Home prices YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 186
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,601 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,582
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$377 /mo · $4,526/yr
• Insurance: −$126
• HOA: −$34
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$546
• Net cashflow: $-64

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,682

Max offer price $292,433

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $144	-5% $40	+0% $-64	+5% $-168	+10% $-273
Rent	-10% $-270	-5% $-167	+0% $-64	+5% $39	+10% $141
Rate	-1.0pp $88	-0.5pp $13	base $-64	+0.5pp $-142	+1.0pp $-222

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $75,429
• Closing costs: $9,051
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2722 Arnall Dr Allenhurst, GA	5.0	3.0	2256	$2,600	$1.15	139d	1	0.34mi
9635 Tibet Hwy SE Allenhurst, GA	5.0	3.5	2400	$2,600	$1.08	139d	1	1.26mi
28 Murray Crossing Blvd NE Ludowici, GA	4.0	2.5	2670	$2,350	$0.88	3d	1	1.42mi

HOA detail $34/mo · $408/yr

• Likely covers: electric

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $294,900 Active 487 DOM
2. 2026-09-22
   days on market $294,900 Active 486 DOM
3. 2026-09-20
   days on market $294,900 Active 484 DOM
4. 2026-09-19
   days on market $294,900 Active 483 DOM
5. 2026-09-18
   days on market $294,900 Active 482 DOM
6. 2026-09-17
   days on market $294,900 Active 481 DOM
7. 2026-09-16
   days on market $294,900 Active 480 DOM
8. 2026-09-15
   days on market $294,900 Active 479 DOM
9. 2026-09-14
   days on market $294,900 Active 478 DOM
10. 2026-09-13
    days on market $294,900 Active 477 DOM
11. 2026-09-12
    days on market $294,900 Active 476 DOM
12. 2026-09-11
    days on market $294,900 Active 475 DOM
13. 2026-09-05
    days on market $294,900 Active 469 DOM
14. 2026-09-04
    days on market $294,900 Active 468 DOM
15. 2026-09-03
    days on market $294,900 Active 467 DOM
16. 2026-09-02
    days on market $294,900 Active 466 DOM
17. 2026-08-30
    days on market $294,900 Active 463 DOM
18. 2026-08-29
    days on market $294,900 Active 462 DOM
19. 2026-08-28
    days on market $294,900 Active 461 DOM
20. 2026-08-27
    days on market $294,900 Active 460 DOM
21. 2026-08-26
    days on market $294,900 Active 459 DOM
22. 2026-08-25
    days on market $294,900 Active 458 DOM
23. 2026-08-24
    days on market $294,900 Active 457 DOM
24. 2026-08-23
    days on market $294,900 Active 456 DOM
25. 2026-08-22
    days on market $294,900 Active 455 DOM
26. 2026-08-21
    days on market $294,900 Active 454 DOM
27. 2026-08-20
    days on market $294,900 Active 453 DOM
28. 2026-08-19
    days on market $294,900 Active 452 DOM
29. 2026-08-18
    days on market $294,900 Active 451 DOM
30. 2026-08-17
    days on market $294,900 Active 450 DOM
31. 2026-08-16
    days on market $294,900 Active 449 DOM
32. 2026-08-15
    days on market $294,900 Active 448 DOM
33. 2026-08-14
    days on market $294,900 Active 447 DOM
34. 2026-08-13
    days on market $294,900 Active 446 DOM
35. 2026-08-12
    days on market $294,900 Active 445 DOM
36. 2026-08-11
    days on market $294,900 Active 444 DOM
37. 2026-08-10
    days on market $294,900 Active 443 DOM
38. 2026-08-09
    days on market $294,900 Active 442 DOM
39. 2026-08-08
    days on market $294,900 Active 441 DOM
40. 2026-08-07
    days on market $294,900 Active 440 DOM
41. 2026-08-06
    days on market $294,900 Active 439 DOM
42. 2026-08-05
    days on market $294,900 Active 438 DOM
43. 2026-08-04
    days on market $294,900 Active 437 DOM
44. 2026-08-03
    days on market $294,900 Active 436 DOM
45. 2026-07-31
    days on market $294,900 Active 433 DOM
46. 2026-07-30
    days on market $294,900 Active 432 DOM
47. 2026-07-29
    days on market $294,900 Active 431 DOM
48. 2026-07-27
    days on market $294,900 Active 429 DOM
49. 2026-07-25
    days on market $294,900 Active 427 DOM
50. 2026-07-24
    days on market $294,900 Active 426 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,214
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,901
• − Property taxes: −$4,526
• − Insurance: −$1,509
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,497
• − Management: −$2,497
• − HOA: −$408
• − Depreciation: −$8,777
• Taxable loss: −$5,900
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,416
• After-tax cash flow: $646/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It has a good curb appeal and interior finish, making it a great investment opportunity.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and add value to the property. ↑
• Resale Kitchen appliances — Upgrading to more modern or energy-efficient appliances can attract more buyers. ↑
• Resale Bathroom fixtures — Upgrading to more modern or energy-efficient fixtures can attract more buyers. ↑
• Both Flooring replacement — Replacing worn-out flooring can improve the overall appearance and functionality of the home. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 26/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Mcclelland Elementary School F GA #728/1,228 Nat'l #29,575/41,679 Middle Long County Middle School F GA #311/470 Nat'l #10,795/14,009 High Long County High School F GA #140/424 Nat'l #11,215/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Long County
• NCES district ID: 1303360
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $45,958
• Composite: 22.51/100
• National rank: #8090
• State rank: #115 of 174 in GA

C Composite livability gradescore 62/100

Livability — Allenhurst

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #319
• US rank: #17124

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Liberty County · 24,669 people
• Metro: Hinesville, GA
• Population (ZIP): 4,933
• Household income: $65,417
• Rent vs Own: 55.7% rent · 44.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 11% of renters

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Population outlook (Long County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 24,669 people
• By 2030: 28,223 · +14.4%
• By 2040: 35,430 · +43.6%
• By 2050: 42,403 · +71.9%
• By 2075: 56,996 · +131.0%
• By 2100: 64,185 · +160.2%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 51% White 31% Two or more races 15% Hispanic / Latino 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 7%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2%

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Political lean MEDSL · Long

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.5) · D 35.1% · R 64.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.4pp toward R · 2008: -24.1pp · 2024: -29.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.5 2020: R+26.4 2016: R+30.8 2012: R+22.9 2008: R+24.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.16%
• Current HPI: 187.7716
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Hinesville, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-05-24 Listed $294,900 Zillow