4407 Jesenia St · San Juan, TX 78589

$160,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 520 sqft · Manufactured public records · 129 Days on market

Built 2025 9,801 sqft lot $308/sqft · 99% above area Est $188k · 15% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.2/15.0
• Cash flow +7.4/30.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• DSCR +1.5/10.0
• 1% rule +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome Home! Beautiful 4-Bed/2-Bath home located in San Juan TX. Home is minutes from restaurants, taquerias, UTRGV Stadium and medical offices. Home offers quartz countertops, new laminate flooring, New AC, New Water Heater and a large back yard for your BBQ family gatherings.

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• New water heater
• Large back yard

Tags

• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• NEW LAMINATE FLOORING
• NEW AC
• NEW WATER HEATER
• LARGE BACK YARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-359 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $97k (39.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $100k (37.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $97k (39.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.7% vs local median 3.4% in San Juan — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#294 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Pharr-San Juan-Alamo ISD (suburban): math 18% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #740 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 362 active listings in the ZIP; 7,378 units permitted in Hidalgo County in 2024 (641 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hidalgo County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 129 days — a 12% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $152/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AH (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $96,503 (39.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 129 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 40% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.62% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.74%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.56%
• DSCR: 0.75
• GRM: 13.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $187,820
• List price: $160,000
• Delta: -14.81%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -33.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.09×
• Total profit: $-48,778
• Equity at exit: $23,857

10-year hold

• IRR: -40.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.60×
• Total profit: $-71,785
• Equity at exit: $13,834

Cash invested: $44,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78589

• Home prices YoY: -12.1%
• Active inventory: 362
• Price-to-rent: 13.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $999 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$91 /mo · $1,095/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$152 /mo · $1,824/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$210
• Net cashflow: $-359

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,454

Max offer price $96,503

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,000
• Closing costs: $4,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $160,000 Active 129 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $160,000 Active 128 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $160,000 Active 127 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $160,000 Active 126 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $160,000 Active 124 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   status $160,000 Active 123 DOM
7. 2026-05-17
   status Pending 279-char remark

   Show marketing remark (279 chars)

   Welcome Home! Beautiful 4-Bed/2-Bath home located in San Juan TX. Home is minutes from restaurants, taquerias, UTRGV Stadium and medical offices. Home offers quartz countertops, new laminate flooring, New AC, New Water Heater and a large back yard for your BBQ family gatherings.

8. 2026-05-08
   historical Option 279-char remark

   Show marketing remark (279 chars)

   Welcome Home! Beautiful 4-Bed/2-Bath home located in San Juan TX. Home is minutes from restaurants, taquerias, UTRGV Stadium and medical offices. Home offers quartz countertops, new laminate flooring, New AC, New Water Heater and a large back yard for your BBQ family gatherings.

9. 2026-03-28
   price $160,000 279-char remark

   Show marketing remark (279 chars)

   Welcome Home! Beautiful 4-Bed/2-Bath home located in San Juan TX. Home is minutes from restaurants, taquerias, UTRGV Stadium and medical offices. Home offers quartz countertops, new laminate flooring, New AC, New Water Heater and a large back yard for your BBQ family gatherings.

10. 2026-03-06
    price $165,000 279-char remark

    Show marketing remark (279 chars)

    Welcome Home! Beautiful 4-Bed/2-Bath home located in San Juan TX. Home is minutes from restaurants, taquerias, UTRGV Stadium and medical offices. Home offers quartz countertops, new laminate flooring, New AC, New Water Heater and a large back yard for your BBQ family gatherings.

11. 2026-02-12
    price $175,000 279-char remark

    Show marketing remark (279 chars)

    Welcome Home! Beautiful 4-Bed/2-Bath home located in San Juan TX. Home is minutes from restaurants, taquerias, UTRGV Stadium and medical offices. Home offers quartz countertops, new laminate flooring, New AC, New Water Heater and a large back yard for your BBQ family gatherings.

12. 2026-01-13
    listed $180,000 Active 279-char remark

    Show marketing remark (279 chars)

    Welcome Home! Beautiful 4-Bed/2-Bath home located in San Juan TX. Home is minutes from restaurants, taquerias, UTRGV Stadium and medical offices. Home offers quartz countertops, new laminate flooring, New AC, New Water Heater and a large back yard for your BBQ family gatherings.

13. 2026-01-04
    listed $180,000 Active
14. 2025-10-28
    soldstatus
15. 2025-10-27
    soldstatus Sold
16. 2025-10-24
    status Pending
17. 2025-10-16
    historical Option
18. 2025-09-08
    status Active
19. 2025-07-25
    status Pending
20. 2025-07-14
    historical Option
21. 2025-01-28
    price $55,000
22. 2024-11-06
    price $57,000
23. 2024-10-10
    price $60,000
24. 2024-07-24
    price $65,000
25. 2024-06-28
    listed $70,000 Active
26. 1993-09-29
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,095 · $91/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,928 · $244/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,833/yr (+$153/mo · 167.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone AH · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,993
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,962
• − Property taxes: −$1,095
• − Insurance: −$2,624
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$959
• − Management: −$959
• − Depreciation: −$4,655
• Taxable loss: −$7,262
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,743
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,570/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pharr-San Juan-Alamo ISD
• NCES district ID: 4834860
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -34.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $33,757
• Composite: 19.63/100
• National rank: #8744
• State rank: #740 of 826 in TX

Livability — San Juan

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #294
• US rank: #6725

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Juan, TX
• Population (ZIP): 39,958

Population outlook (Hidalgo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 955,232 people
• By 2030: 1,009,774 · +5.7%
• By 2040: 1,120,332 · +17.3%
• By 2050: 1,225,036 · +28.2%
• By 2075: 1,439,189 · +50.7%
• By 2100: 1,533,429 · +60.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 97% Two or more races 43% White 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 94%
• Foreign-born: 26% · Canada
• Languages at home: 18% English-only · Spanish 82%

Political lean MEDSL · Hidalgo

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.1% · R 51.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -41.6pp toward R · 2008: 38.7pp · 2024: -2.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.9 2020: D+17.1 2016: D+40.5 2012: D+41.8 2008: D+38.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -32.82%
• Current HPI: 239.3829
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+128.6% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-17 Pending — MCALLENMLS
• 2026-05-08 Contingent — MCALLENMLS
• 2026-03-28 Price Changed $160,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2026-03-06 Price Changed $165,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2026-02-12 Price Changed $175,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2026-01-13 Listed $180,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2026-01-04 Listed $180,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2025-10-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2025-10-27 Sold (MLS) — MCALLENMLS
• 2025-10-24 Pending — MCALLENMLS
• 2025-10-16 Contingent — MCALLENMLS
• 2025-09-08 Relisted — MCALLENMLS
• 2025-07-25 Pending — MCALLENMLS
• 2025-07-14 Contingent — MCALLENMLS
• 2025-01-28 Price Changed $55,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2024-11-06 Price Changed $57,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2024-10-10 Price Changed $60,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2024-07-24 Price Changed $65,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2024-06-28 Listed $70,000 MCALLENMLS
• 1993-09-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+7.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,095 · +9.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.