3013 Old Woodville Rd · Livingston, TX 77351

$138,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,350 sqft · Manufactured public records · 34 Days on market

Built 1998 1.00 ac lot $102/sqft · 25% below area Est $184k · 25% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.9/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 3013 Old Woodville Rd in Livingston, TX—a beautiful 3-bedroom, 2-bath home perfectly situated on a full acre of land. This inviting property features a spacious open floor plan that creates a seamless flow between the living, dining, and kitchen areas, making it ideal for both everyday living and entertaining. Enjoy your morning coffee or unwind in the evenings on the fully screened front porch, offering comfort and relaxation year-round. The expansive rolling lot provides plenty of room to roam, garden, or create your own outdoor oasis, complete with a convenient storage shed for all your tools and equipment. If you're looking for space, comfort, and country charm, this property is a must-see! Just 15 minutes from Naskila Casino this property also has your entertainment needs taken care of.

Key facts

• 1 acre lot
• Built 1998
• Listed 34 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $138k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $282 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $138k).
• Recommended offer: $134k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.7% vs local median 2.9% in Livingston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,113 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A, health & safety A; Watch: schools D, crime F, amenities F.
• Livingston ISD (rural): math 38% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #459 of 826 in TX (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 1186 active listings in the ZIP; 769 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $954 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($134k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $72k; list at $138k implies a 93% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $133,860 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.77%
• DSCR: 1.39
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $184,474
• List price: $138,000
• Delta: -25.19%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 12 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.89×
• Total profit: $-4,384
• Equity at exit: $20,576

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.50×
• Total profit: $19,313
• Equity at exit: $11,932

Cash invested: $38,640 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77351

• Home prices YoY: -14.8%
• Active inventory: 1186
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,504 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$724
• Tax from tax record: −$125 /mo · $1,495/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$316
• Net cashflow: $282

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,146

Max offer price $138,000

Occupancy floor 76%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,500
• Closing costs: $4,140
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-18
   status $138,000 Active 34 DOM
2. 2026-05-12
   status Pending 819-char remark

   Show marketing remark (819 chars)

   Welcome to 3013 Old Woodville Rd in Livingston, TX—a beautiful 3-bedroom, 2-bath home perfectly situated on a full acre of land. This inviting property features a spacious open floor plan that creates a seamless flow between the living, dining, and kitchen areas, making it ideal for both everyday living and entertaining. Enjoy your morning coffee or unwind in the evenings on the fully screened front porch, offering comfort and relaxation year-round. The expansive rolling lot provides plenty of room to roam, garden, or create your own outdoor oasis, complete with a convenient storage shed for all your tools and equipment. If you're looking for space, comfort, and country charm, this property is a must-see! Just 15 minutes from Naskila Casino this property also has your entertainment needs taken care of.

3. 2026-04-08
   listed $138,000 Active 819-char remark

   Show marketing remark (819 chars)

   Welcome to 3013 Old Woodville Rd in Livingston, TX—a beautiful 3-bedroom, 2-bath home perfectly situated on a full acre of land. This inviting property features a spacious open floor plan that creates a seamless flow between the living, dining, and kitchen areas, making it ideal for both everyday living and entertaining. Enjoy your morning coffee or unwind in the evenings on the fully screened front porch, offering comfort and relaxation year-round. The expansive rolling lot provides plenty of room to roam, garden, or create your own outdoor oasis, complete with a convenient storage shed for all your tools and equipment. If you're looking for space, comfort, and country charm, this property is a must-see! Just 15 minutes from Naskila Casino this property also has your entertainment needs taken care of.

4. 2024-05-14
   soldstatus
5. 2024-05-10
   soldstatus Sold 289-char remark

   Show marketing remark (289 chars)

   Home is situated in a remote, tranquil setting. You'll enjoy the screened porch while drinking your coffe. Minutes away from Livingston for shopping, work or recreation. Naskilla is less than 15 minutes away and the lake is 15 minutes the other direction. IAH is 1 hour away, as is Lufkin.

6. 2024-04-12
   status Pending 289-char remark

   Show marketing remark (289 chars)

   Home is situated in a remote, tranquil setting. You'll enjoy the screened porch while drinking your coffe. Minutes away from Livingston for shopping, work or recreation. Naskilla is less than 15 minutes away and the lake is 15 minutes the other direction. IAH is 1 hour away, as is Lufkin.

7. 2024-04-04
   status Option Pending 289-char remark

   Show marketing remark (289 chars)

   Home is situated in a remote, tranquil setting. You'll enjoy the screened porch while drinking your coffe. Minutes away from Livingston for shopping, work or recreation. Naskilla is less than 15 minutes away and the lake is 15 minutes the other direction. IAH is 1 hour away, as is Lufkin.

8. 2024-03-15
   listed $128,000 Active 289-char remark

   Show marketing remark (289 chars)

   Home is situated in a remote, tranquil setting. You'll enjoy the screened porch while drinking your coffe. Minutes away from Livingston for shopping, work or recreation. Naskilla is less than 15 minutes away and the lake is 15 minutes the other direction. IAH is 1 hour away, as is Lufkin.

9. 2020-02-18
   soldstatus
10. 2007-04-17
    soldstatus $71,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,495 · $125/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,525 · $210/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,031/yr (+$86/mo · 69.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,047
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,730
• − Property taxes: −$1,495
• − Insurance: −$690
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,444
• − Management: −$1,444
• − Depreciation: −$4,015
• Taxable income: $1,230
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$295
• After-tax cash flow: $3,093/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Livingston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4827780
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $39,531
• Composite: 32.25/100
• National rank: #5767
• State rank: #459 of 826 in TX

Livability — Livingston

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1113
• US rank: #19723

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A Health & safety A User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Polk County · 37,143 people
• City population: 37,143
• Metro: nan
• Population (ZIP): 37,143
• Household income: $66,834
• Rent vs Own: 21.5% rent · 78.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 608.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 51,049 people
• By 2030: 53,243 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 56,528 · +10.7%
• By 2050: 59,243 · +16.1%
• By 2075: 63,528 · +24.4%
• By 2100: 60,376 · +18.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 9% Black 8% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.9) · D 20.2% · R 79.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.7pp toward R · 2008: -37.2pp · 2024: -58.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.9 2020: R+54.5 2016: R+56.5 2012: R+48.2 2008: R+37.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.11%
• Current HPI: 178.5316
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: nan
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+93.0% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Pending — Deep East Texas MLS
• 2026-04-08 Listed $138,000 Deep East Texas MLS
• 2024-05-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2024-05-10 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2024-04-12 Pending — HARMLS
• 2024-04-04 Pending — HARMLS
• 2024-03-15 Listed $128,000 HARMLS
• 2020-02-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2007-04-17 Sold (Public Records) $71,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,495 · +0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.