5116 Murray Rd · Manhattan, KS 66503

$120,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,144 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 109 Days on market

Built 1953 0.48 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 0.48 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1953

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Garage with 1 parking space
• Home design: Single family residence (single house); Residential property
• Construction: Frame construction; Above-grade finished area approximately 1,144
• Exterior features: Composition roof; Lot approximately 0.48 acres with dimensions about 145 x 145.2

Interior

• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Interior features: Crawl space basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $554 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $109k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#6 in KS, #979 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime C-, employment C-.
• Manhattan-Ogden (urban): math 39% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #26 of 169 in KS (top 15%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 189 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 132 units permitted in Riley County in 2024 (35 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $830 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Riley County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 109 days — a 9% lower offer ($109k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1953 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $109,200 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 109 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1953 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.43% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.79%
• DSCR: 1.88
• GRM: 5.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.98% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.47×
• Total profit: $15,824
• Equity at exit: $17,892

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.76×
• Total profit: $59,126
• Equity at exit: $10,375

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kansas: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; moderate court pace.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 66503

• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 189
• Price-to-rent: 5.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,719 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$125 /mo · $1,497/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$361
• Net cashflow: $554

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,018

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 63%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $622	-5% $588	+0% $554	+5% $520	+10% $486
Rent	-10% $418	-5% $486	+0% $554	+5% $622	+10% $690
Rate	-1.0pp $615	-0.5pp $585	base $554	+0.5pp $523	+1.0pp $491

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $120,000 Active 109 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $120,000 Active 108 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $120,000 Active 107 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $120,000 Active 106 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $120,000 Active 105 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $120,000 Active 103 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $120,000 Active 102 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $120,000 Active 100 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $120,000 Active 99 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $120,000 Active 98 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $120,000 Active 97 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $120,000 Active 93 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $120,000 Active 92 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $120,000 Active 91 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $120,000 Active 90 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $120,000 Active 89 DOM
17. 2026-03-02
    listed $120,000 Active
18. 2008-07-01
    soldstatus $106,000
19. 2006-02-01
    soldstatus $106,000
20. 2005-08-01
    soldstatus $74,357
21. 2001-05-01
    soldstatus $68,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,497 · $125/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,692 · $141/mo
• Expected delta: +$195/yr (+$16/mo · 13.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,630
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$1,497
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,650
• − Management: −$1,650
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable income: $5,020
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,205
• After-tax cash flow: $5,445/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manhattan-Ogden
• NCES district ID: 2009180
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $44,001
• Composite: 35.97/100
• National rank: #4795
• State rank: #26 of 169 in KS

Livability — Manhattan

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #6
• US rank: #979

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment C- Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Riley County · 62,662 people
• City population: 60,966
• Metro: Manhattan, KS
• Population (ZIP): 17,273
• Household income: $97,846
• Rent vs Own: 40.5% rent · 59.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 421.0

Population outlook (Riley County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 83,656 people
• By 2030: 89,075 · +6.5%
• By 2040: 99,100 · +18.5%
• By 2050: 109,146 · +30.5%
• By 2075: 134,178 · +60.4%
• By 2100: 153,653 · +83.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 8% Black 5% Asian 5% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · China, Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 4% Chinese 2% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Riley

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.6% · R 47.8% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +8.8pp toward D · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: 1.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.8 2020: D+3.2 2016: R+4.5 2012: R+12.7 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -214.01%
• Current HPI: 141.8067
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.98%
• Metro: Manhattan, KS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+75.2% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-02 Listed $120,000 Sunflower MLS as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2008-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $106,000 Public Records
• 2006-02-01 Sold (Public Records) $106,000 Public Records
• 2005-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $74,357 Public Records
• 2001-05-01 Sold (Public Records) $68,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,497 · +7.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.