37228 Grassy Hill Ln · Dade City, FL 33525

$154,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,212 sqft · Townhouse public records · 21 Days on market

Built 2005 1,586 sqft lot Est $196k · 21% under $119/mo HOA · 5% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome home to this well-maintained and thoughtfully designed 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom single-story townhome offering comfort, convenience, and easy living. This spacious floor plan features an open-concept living and dining area filled with natural light, perfect for both relaxing and entertaining. The kitchen offers ample cabinetry, generous counter space, and a functional layout ideal for everyday living. The primary suite includes a private en-suite bath and spacious closet, while two additional bedrooms provide flexibility for guests, a home office, or family needs. A second full bathroom is conveniently located for added comfort. Enjoy the benefits of one-level living with no stairs, in

Key facts

• In-unit laundry
• Open-concept living
• Spacious closet

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING
• IN-UNIT LAUNDRY
• PRIVATE EN-SUITE BATH
• SPACIOUS CLOSET
• LOW-MAINTENANCE SURROUNDINGS
• CONVENIENTLY LOCATED

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: No additional equipment included; No community amenities listed
• Financial info: Total monthly fees listed as $119; total annual fees listed as $1,428
• HOA & community: Monthly HOA $119 (Vanguard Management/Alice Kuhn); fee required; fee includes none; Pets allowed — cats and dogs OK with breed restrictions

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 1 garage space
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer / sewer connected; Electricity available; Cable available
• Home design: Residential townhouse; One story; North-facing
• Construction: Block construction; Shake roof; Built on slab foundation
• Exterior features: Asphalt road access; Lot about 0.04 acres (approx. 147 m²)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Slab foundation
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $155k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $410 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $155k).
• Recommended offer: $153k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#307 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Pasco Elementary School (math 29% / reading 30%, grade F, #1,896 of 2,144 statewide, top 90%, 586 students, 89% FRL); Pasco High School (math 40% / reading 40%, grade F, #296 of 667 statewide, top 45%, 1,639 students, 66% FRL) — zoned schools average 77% FRL vs 48% district-wide (29 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 35% at this address vs 51% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Pasco average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 670 active listings in the ZIP; 26 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $43k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($153k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 15 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $48k; list at $155k implies a 225% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $152,576 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.69% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.77%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.14%
• DSCR: 2.03
• GRM: 4.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $196,344
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
37215 Grassy Hill Ln	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,212 (0%)	5mo	$169,900	$140	94
13533 Embassy Park Ct	0.35mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,051 (-13%)	12mo	$170,000	$162	44
13550 Embassy Park Ct	0.38mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,051 (-13%)	20mo	$172,500	$164	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.02% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.03×
• Total profit: $1,456
• Equity at exit: $23,096

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.85×
• Total profit: $36,735
• Equity at exit: $13,393

Cash invested: $43,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33525

• Home prices YoY: -15.4%
• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 670
• Price-to-rent: 4.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,625 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$812
• Tax from tax record: −$242 /mo · $2,900/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$119
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$551
• Net cashflow: $410

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,106

Max offer price $154,900

Occupancy floor 79%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $497	-5% $454	+0% $410	+5% $366	+10% $322
Rent	-10% $202	-5% $306	+0% $410	+5% $513	+10% $617
Rate	-1.0pp $488	-0.5pp $449	base $410	+0.5pp $370	+1.0pp $329

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,725
• Closing costs: $4,647
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 26 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
37228 Grassy Hill Ln Unit 1 Dade City, FL	3.0	2.0	1212	$1,750	$1.44	4d	1	0.03mi
37215 Grassy Hill Ln Dade City, FL	3.0	2.0	1212	$1,495	$1.23	25d	1	0.03mi
37132 Grassy Hill Ln Unit 1234477P Dade City, FL	3.0	2.0	1205	$3,379	$2.80	0d	1	0.09mi
37132 Grassy Hill Ln Unit 1 Dade City, FL	3.0	2.0	1212	$3,500	$2.89	25d	1	0.09mi
37135 Grassy Hill Ln Unit 1234475P Dade City, FL	3.0	2.0	1205	$3,535	$2.93	3d	1	0.09mi
37135 Grassy Hill Ln Unit 1 Dade City, FL	3.0	2.0	1212	$3,500	$2.89	25d	1	0.09mi
13921 19th St Unit 1234474P Dade City, FL	2.0	1.0	936	$2,013	$2.15	17d	1	0.73mi
37011 Bear Branch Dr Dade City, FL	3.0–4.0	2.0–3.0	1730	$1,837	$1.06	0d	14	0.86mi
13650 5th St Dade City, FL	2.0	1.0	900	$1,350	$1.50	13d	1	0.92mi
13650 5th St Dade City, FL	2.0	1.0	900	$1,350	$1.50	0d	1	0.92mi
37015 Waldo Dr Dade City, FL	4.0	2.0	1480	$3,750	$2.53	25d	1	0.99mi
37329 Magnolia Ave Unit 1234471P Dade City, FL	3.0	2.0	1216	$3,331	$2.74	0d	1	1.09mi
13917 2nd St Dade City, FL	3.0	1.0	1312	$1,950	$1.49	25d	1	1.17mi
13253 Waterford Castle Dr Dade City, FL	3.0	2.0	1189	$1,749	$1.47	3d	1	1.22mi
37540 Martin Luther King Blvd Unit A Dade City, FL	2.0	1.0	784	$1,200	$1.53	25d	1	1.31mi
37850 Wdcf Dr Dade City, FL	2.0	1.0	775	$1,375	$1.77	16d	1	1.32mi
37850 Wdcf Dr Dade City, FL	2.0	1.0	775	$1,375	$1.77	6d	1	1.32mi
38210 Williams Aire St Dade City, FL	2.0	2.0	912	$1,600	$1.75	25d	1	1.36mi
11916 Sylvia St Dade City, FL	3.0	2.5	1386	$1,369	$0.99	6d	1	1.38mi
11908 Sylvia St Dade City, FL	3.0	2.5	1386	$1,520	$1.10	19d	1	1.39mi
11908 Sylvia St Dade City, FL	3.0	2.5	1386	$1,520	$1.10	25d	1	1.39mi
11898 Sylvia St Dade City, FL	3.0	2.5	1386	$1,369	$0.99	16d	1	1.40mi
11890 Sylvia St Dade City, FL	3.0	2.5	1386	$1,695	$1.22	19d	1	1.41mi
11890 Sylvia St Dade City, FL	3.0	2.5	1386	$1,695	$1.22	25d	1	1.41mi
14635 State St Dade City, FL	3.0	1.5	1040	$1,731	$1.66	0d	1	1.46mi
38714 Island Ave Dade City, FL	3.0	2.0	864	$1,695	$1.96	25d	1	1.50mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $119 · $1,428/yr

Listing history 49 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $154,900 Active 21 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $154,900 Active 20 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $154,900 Active 19 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $154,900 Active 18 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $154,900 Active 16 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $154,900 Active 12 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $154,900 Active 11 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $154,900 Active 10 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $164,900 Active 7 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $164,900 Active 6 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $164,900 Active 5 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $164,900 Active 4 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $164,900 Active 3 DOM
14. 2026-05-28
    listed $164,900 Active
15. 2026-03-31
    historical
16. 2026-02-02
    price $154,900
17. 2026-01-26
    price $159,900
18. 2026-01-20
    price $164,900
19. 2026-01-12
    status Active
20. 2026-01-02
    status Active
21. 2025-11-10
    price $169,900
22. 2025-10-29
    price $174,900
23. 2025-10-01
    price $179,900
24. 2025-07-11
    price $185,000
25. 2025-07-07
    listed $190,000 Active
26. 2025-05-14
    historical $1,625
27. 2025-05-14
    listed $1,625
28. 2025-04-12
    historical $1,650
29. 2025-04-11
    listed $1,650
30. 2025-03-14
    historical $1,695
31. 2025-03-14
    listed $1,695
32. 2024-01-04
    historical $1,695
33. 2023-12-29
    listed $1,695
34. 2022-11-18
    price $2,100,000
35. 2022-09-02
    listed $2,250,000 Active
36. 2019-11-11
    historical
37. 2017-07-12
    soldstatus $47,700 Sold
38. 2017-05-08
    status Pending
39. 2017-05-05
    historical
40. 2017-04-27
    listed $47,700 Active
41. 2014-05-07
    historical
42. 2012-10-22
    listed $49,900 Active
43. 2009-01-08
    historical
44. 2008-02-28
    listed $129,900
45. 2008-02-28
    listed $129,900
46. 2008-02-25
    historical
47. 2007-09-05
    listed $129,900
48. 2006-01-04
    soldstatus $144,900
49. 2005-06-21
    listed $144,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,900 · $242/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,900 · $242/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone AE · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,501
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,677
• − Property taxes: −$2,900
• − Insurance: −$5,893
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,520
• − Management: −$2,520
• − HOA: −$1,428
• − Depreciation: −$4,506
• Taxable income: $3,057
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$734
• After-tax cash flow: $4,184/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Dade City

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #307
• US rank: #5215

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Dade City, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• City population: 21,077
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 21,077
• Household income: $69,068
• Rent vs Own: 26.0% rent · 74.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 322.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 7% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -65.48%
• Current HPI: 358.2149
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.02%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+13.8% since first listed

36 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Listed $164,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-31 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-02 Price Changed $154,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-26 Price Changed $159,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-20 Price Changed $164,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-12 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-02 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-10 Price Changed $169,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-29 Price Changed $174,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-01 Price Changed $179,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-11 Price Changed $185,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-07 Listed $190,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-14 Rental Removed $1,625 STELLARMLS
• 2025-05-14 Listed for Rent $1,625 STELLARMLS
• 2025-04-12 Rental Removed $1,650 STELLARMLS
• 2025-04-11 Listed for Rent $1,650 STELLARMLS
• 2025-03-14 Rental Removed $1,695 STELLARMLS
• 2025-03-14 Listed for Rent $1,695 STELLARMLS
• 2024-01-04 Rental Removed $1,695 STELLARMLS
• 2023-12-29 Listed for Rent $1,695 STELLARMLS
• 2022-11-18 Price Changed $2,100,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-09-02 Listed $2,250,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-11-11 Listing Removed — HCAR
• 2017-07-12 Sold (MLS) $47,700 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-05-08 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-05-05 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-04-27 Listed $47,700 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-05-07 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-10-22 Listed $49,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-01-08 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-02-28 Listed $129,900 HCAR
• 2008-02-28 Listed $129,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-02-25 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-09-05 Listed $129,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-01-04 Sold (MLS) $144,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-06-21 Listed $144,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+27.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,900 · +6.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.