4200 Monarch St · Amarillo, TX 79118

$280,985

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,600 sqft · SingleFamily · 114 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The 1,600 square-foot Pamela floor plan offers a spacious, well-designed layout with room to grow into what's next. Brick exterior with covered front porchLuxury vinyl plank flooring in main areasOpen-concept kitchen, living, and dining areaGranite or quartz countertops throughoutSpacious kitchen island with bar seatingStainless steel appliancesEnclosed pantryThree additional storage closetsPrivate primary suite with large walk-in closetCovered back patio

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Brick exterior
• Open-concept kitchen

Tags

• BRICK EXTERIOR
• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• LUXURY VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• OPEN-CONCEPT KITCHEN
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN ISLAND
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $281k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-156 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $258k (8.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $226k (19.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $226k (19.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#624 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities C-, schools D, crime F.
• Canyon ISD (town): math 60% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #78 of 826 in TX (top 9%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.5%/yr); 276 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 45 units permitted in Randall County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($88k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Randall County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 114 days — a 9% lower offer ($256k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $226,081 (19.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 114 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.63%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.38%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.52% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-49,543
• Equity at exit: $41,896

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.61×
• Total profit: $-30,386
• Equity at exit: $24,294

Cash invested: $78,676 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79118

• Rents YoY: 5.5%
• Active inventory: 276
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,261 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,474
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$351 /mo · $4,215/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$475
• Net cashflow: $-156

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,458

Max offer price $258,443

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $38	-5% $-59	+0% $-156	+5% $-253	+10% $-350
Rent	-10% $-334	-5% $-245	+0% $-156	+5% $-66	+10% $23
Rate	-1.0pp $-14	-0.5pp $-84	base $-156	+0.5pp $-229	+1.0pp $-303

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $70,246
• Closing costs: $8,430
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4400 Sunset St Amarillo, TX	3.0	2.0	1400	$2,125	$1.52	44d	1	0.15mi
10602 Stone Meadow Dr Amarillo, TX	3.0	2.0	1575	$2,200	$1.40	44d	1	0.37mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $280,985 Active 114 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $280,985 Active 113 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $280,985 Active 112 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $280,985 Active 111 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $280,985 Active 109 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $280,985 Active 108 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $280,985 Active 106 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $280,985 Active 105 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $280,985 Active 104 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $280,985 Active 103 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $280,985 Active 100 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $280,985 Active 99 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $280,985 Active 98 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $280,985 Active 97 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $280,985 Active 96 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $280,985 Active 95 DOM
17. 2026-04-13
    price $280,985 459-char remark

    Show marketing remark (459 chars)

    The 1,600 square-foot Pamela floor plan offers a spacious, well-designed layout with room to grow into what's next. Brick exterior with covered front porchLuxury vinyl plank flooring in main areasOpen-concept kitchen, living, and dining areaGranite or quartz countertops throughoutSpacious kitchen island with bar seatingStainless steel appliancesEnclosed pantryThree additional storage closetsPrivate primary suite with large walk-in closetCovered back patio

18. 2026-03-28
    price $273,985 459-char remark

    Show marketing remark (459 chars)

    The 1,600 square-foot Pamela floor plan offers a spacious, well-designed layout with room to grow into what's next. Brick exterior with covered front porchLuxury vinyl plank flooring in main areasOpen-concept kitchen, living, and dining areaGranite or quartz countertops throughoutSpacious kitchen island with bar seatingStainless steel appliancesEnclosed pantryThree additional storage closetsPrivate primary suite with large walk-in closetCovered back patio

19. 2026-03-05
    price $269,585 459-char remark

    Show marketing remark (459 chars)

    The 1,600 square-foot Pamela floor plan offers a spacious, well-designed layout with room to grow into what's next. Brick exterior with covered front porchLuxury vinyl plank flooring in main areasOpen-concept kitchen, living, and dining areaGranite or quartz countertops throughoutSpacious kitchen island with bar seatingStainless steel appliancesEnclosed pantryThree additional storage closetsPrivate primary suite with large walk-in closetCovered back patio

20. 2026-02-24
    listed $269,555 Active 459-char remark

    Show marketing remark (459 chars)

    The 1,600 square-foot Pamela floor plan offers a spacious, well-designed layout with room to grow into what's next. Brick exterior with covered front porchLuxury vinyl plank flooring in main areasOpen-concept kitchen, living, and dining areaGranite or quartz countertops throughoutSpacious kitchen island with bar seatingStainless steel appliancesEnclosed pantryThree additional storage closetsPrivate primary suite with large walk-in closetCovered back patio

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,130
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,740
• − Property taxes: −$4,215
• − Insurance: −$1,405
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,170
• − Management: −$2,170
• − Depreciation: −$8,174
• Taxable loss: −$6,744
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,619
• After-tax cash flow: $-251/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

The home is in good condition with a good exterior and interior. It has a good roof and flooring, and the landscaping is well-maintained. Fresh paint and landscaping improvements can further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract more potential buyers/tenants.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract more potential buyers/tenants. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Canyon ISD
• NCES district ID: 4812810
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $65,177
• Composite: 50.07/100
• National rank: #1912
• State rank: #78 of 826 in TX

Livability — Amarillo

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #624
• US rank: #11876

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Randall County · 137,351 people
• City population: 185,802
• Metro: Amarillo, TX
• Population (ZIP): 28,107
• Household income: $87,810
• Rent vs Own: 23.7% rent · 76.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 367.0

Population outlook (Randall County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 152,140 people
• By 2030: 163,107 · +7.2%
• By 2040: 184,999 · +21.6%
• By 2050: 206,948 · +36.0%
• By 2075: 260,204 · +71.0%
• By 2100: 294,980 · +93.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (57%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 57% Hispanic / Latino 35% Two or more races 18% Black 2% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 14% Vietnamese 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Randall

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.4) · D 19.4% · R 79.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.3pp toward D · 2008: -62.7pp · 2024: -60.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.4 2020: R+58.8 2016: R+65.1 2012: R+68.2 2008: R+62.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -111.59%
• Current HPI: 162.5206
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.52%
• Metro: Amarillo, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+4.2% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $280,985 Zillow
• 2026-03-28 Price Changed $273,985 Zillow
• 2026-03-05 Price Changed $269,585 Zillow
• 2026-02-24 Listed $269,555 Zillow