1721 W 15th St · Erie, PA 16505

$79,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 864 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 31 Days on market

Built 1918 2,779 sqft lot Est $157k · 49% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.4/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Tired of renting?! Here is your opportunity to own. Cute rowhouse that is currently tenant occupied but will be available as a primary residence. Super close proximity to Interstate, shopping, schools and more!

Key facts

• 2,779 sq ft lot
• Built 1918
• Listed 31 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property; R-1 zoning
• Construction: Frame construction; Slate roof
• Exterior features: Storage; Shed(s); Level lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Electric range; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating
• Interior features: Electric oven; Electric range; Refrigerator; Tile and vinyl flooring; Full unfinished basement; 5 total rooms

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $79,900 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$157,248) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $284 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($989 rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $78k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.6% vs local median 5.1% in Erie — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#109 in PA, #840 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime D+, employment F.
• Erie City SD (urban): math 12% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #510 of 539 in PA (top 95%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 81% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Harding Sch (math 10% / reading 23%, grade F, #1,312 of 1,518 statewide, top 87%, 590 students, 100% FRL); Northwest Pa Collegiate Academy (math 82%, 753 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 81% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 72 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 364 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (188 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $552 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Erie County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($78k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $14k; list at $80k implies a 455% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1918 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $77,503 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1918 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.24% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.25%
• DSCR: 1.68
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $157,248
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1686 W 15th St	0.06mi	2/1.0	894 (+4%)	3mo	$34,000	$38	89
1903 W 24th St	0.63mi	2/1.0	816 (-6%)	8mo	$148,200	$182	54
1721 W 23rd St	0.54mi	3/1.0 (+1)	864 (0%)	23mo	$88,000	$102	51
1814 W 22nd St	0.46mi	3/1.0 (+1)	840 (-3%)	22mo	$125,000	$149	51
1944 Oxford St	0.61mi	2/1.0	816 (-6%)	20mo	$149,900	$184	46
2030 Robin Dr	0.58mi	2/1.0	800 (-7%)	19mo	$172,000	$215	45
1021 Shenley Dr	0.43mi	3/2.0 (+1)	922 (+7%)	23mo	$195,000	$211	41
2039 W 24th St	0.72mi	3/1.0 (+1)	960 (+11%)	15mo	$135,000	$141	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.23×
• Total profit: $5,140
• Equity at exit: $11,913

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.24×
• Total profit: $27,713
• Equity at exit: $6,908

Cash invested: $22,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 16505

• Home prices YoY: -33.5%
• Active inventory: 72
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $989 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$419
• Tax from tax record: −$45 /mo · $537/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$208
• Net cashflow: $284

Break-even live

Break-even rent $629

Max offer price $79,900

Occupancy floor 66%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $330	-5% $307	+0% $284	+5% $262	+10% $239
Rent	-10% $206	-5% $245	+0% $284	+5% $323	+10% $362
Rate	-1.0pp $325	-0.5pp $305	base $284	+0.5pp $264	+1.0pp $243

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,975
• Closing costs: $2,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1257 W 6th St Erie, PA	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,350	$1.23	45d	1	0.89mi
1102 W 8th St Unit 1R Erie, PA	1.0	1.0	800	$925	$1.16	45d	1	1.03mi
2540 W 8th St Erie, PA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	550	$1,711	$3.11	45d	1	1.07mi
305 Cascade St Unit 305 Erie, PA	2.0	1.0	1000	$900	$0.90	45d	1	1.35mi
1022 W 30th St Unit 2 Erie, PA	2.0	1.0	1000	$850	$0.85	45d	1	1.40mi
2619 Liberty St Apt 2 Erie, PA	2.0	1.0	800	$800	$1.00	46d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $79,900 Active 31 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $79,900 Active 29 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $79,900 Active 28 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $79,900 Active 27 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $79,900 Active 26 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $79,900 Active 25 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $79,900 Active 23 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $79,900 Active 22 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $79,900 Active 20 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $79,900 Active 19 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $79,900 Active 18 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $79,900 Active 17 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $79,900 Active 14 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $79,900 Active 13 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $79,900 Active 12 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $79,900 Active 11 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $79,900 Active 10 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $79,900 Active 9 DOM
19. 2026-05-21
    status Active
20. 2026-05-20
    listed $79,900 Active
21. 2010-10-07
    soldstatus $14,400
22. 1974-05-31
    soldstatus $6,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $537 · $45/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $900 · $75/mo
• Expected delta: +$363/yr (+$30/mo · 67.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 6 d/yr ≥90°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,868
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,476
• − Property taxes: −$537
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$949
• − Management: −$949
• − Depreciation: −$2,324
• Taxable income: $2,233
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$536
• After-tax cash flow: $2,876/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Erie City SD
• NCES district ID: 4209300
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 19% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $33,625
• Composite: 12.59/100
• National rank: #9617
• State rank: #510 of 539 in PA

Livability — Erie

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #109
• US rank: #840

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Erie, PA
• City population: 92,215
• Population (ZIP): 15,631

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 272,159 people
• By 2030: 266,299 · -2.2%
• By 2040: 250,987 · -7.8%
• By 2050: 234,925 · -13.7%
• By 2075: 199,164 · -26.8%
• By 2100: 162,985 · -40.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Hispanic / Latino 3% Two or more races 3% Asian 2% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 12% Slovak 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.0% · R 50.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.9pp toward R · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: -1.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.0 2020: D+1.0 2016: R+2.0 2012: D+16.9 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -121.22%
• Current HPI: 240.6976
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+1231.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Relisted — GEBOR
• 2026-05-20 Listed $79,900 GEBOR
• 2010-10-07 Sold (Public Records) $14,400 Public Records
• 1974-05-31 Sold (Public Records) $6,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-7.0%/yr

Latest (2026): $537 · +3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.