4075 Mattox Rd · Homer, AK 99603

$220,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 754 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 123 Days on market

Built 1960 10,018 sqft lot $292/sqft · 28% below area Est $304k · 28% under ↓ 18% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

PRICE DROP!! and OWNER FINANCE available case-by-case basis. A historic log cottage right in the beautiful town of Homer, Alaska- own a piece of history and charm with this property; a year round stream at the back of the property offers a feeling of tranquility while being moments away from every thing Homer has to offer. Plenty of storage in your shed, and sunlight to bask in on your front lawn

Key facts

• Plenty of storage
• Historic log cottage
• Year round stream

Tags

• HISTORIC LOG COTTAGE
• YEAR ROUND STREAM
• PLENTY OF STORAGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $297 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $201k (8.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $194k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 1.8% in Homer — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#9 in AK, #2,900 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, housing A-, crime B+; Watch: commute F, cost of living D-.
• Kenai Peninsula Borough School District (rural): math 35% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #8 of 21 in AK (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 244 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 152 units permitted in Kenai Peninsula Borough in 2024 (20 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kenai Peninsula County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 123 days — a 12% lower offer ($194k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $48k (18%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $193,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 123 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.79%
• DSCR: 1.26
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $303,653
• List price: $220,000
• Delta: -27.55%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4075 Mattox Rd	0.00mi	2/1.0 (-1)	754 (0%)	0mo	$220,000	$292	95

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.73×
• Total profit: $-16,832
• Equity at exit: $32,803

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.15×
• Total profit: $9,270
• Equity at exit: $19,022

Cash invested: $61,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alaska: 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; security deposits capped; courts moderate-paced.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 99603

• Home prices YoY: -24.2%
• Active inventory: 244
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,014 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,154
• Tax from tax record: −$48 /mo · $578/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$423
• Net cashflow: $297

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,637

Max offer price $220,000

Occupancy floor 80%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,000
• Closing costs: $6,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1149 Virginia Lynn Way Homer, AK	2.0	2.0	1050	$2,000	$1.90	43d	1	0.19mi
1177 Virginia Ave Homer, AK	2.0	2.0	928	$2,300	$2.48	43d	1	0.20mi
3479 Landings St #23 Homer, AK	2.0	1.0	814	$1,250	$1.54	43d	1	0.62mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-21
   price $220,000 399-char remark

   Show marketing remark (399 chars)

   PRICE DROP!! and OWNER FINANCE available case-by-case basis. A historic log cottage right in the beautiful town of Homer, Alaska- own a piece of history and charm with this property; a year round stream at the back of the property offers a feeling of tranquility while being moments away from every thing Homer has to offer. Plenty of storage in your shed, and sunlight to bask in on your front lawn

2. 2026-04-25
   status Active 399-char remark

   Show marketing remark (399 chars)

   PRICE DROP!! and OWNER FINANCE available case-by-case basis. A historic log cottage right in the beautiful town of Homer, Alaska- own a piece of history and charm with this property; a year round stream at the back of the property offers a feeling of tranquility while being moments away from every thing Homer has to offer. Plenty of storage in your shed, and sunlight to bask in on your front lawn

3. 2026-04-25
   price $240,000 399-char remark

   Show marketing remark (399 chars)

   PRICE DROP!! and OWNER FINANCE available case-by-case basis. A historic log cottage right in the beautiful town of Homer, Alaska- own a piece of history and charm with this property; a year round stream at the back of the property offers a feeling of tranquility while being moments away from every thing Homer has to offer. Plenty of storage in your shed, and sunlight to bask in on your front lawn

4. 2025-06-17
   price $247,000 399-char remark

   Show marketing remark (399 chars)

   PRICE DROP!! and OWNER FINANCE available case-by-case basis. A historic log cottage right in the beautiful town of Homer, Alaska- own a piece of history and charm with this property; a year round stream at the back of the property offers a feeling of tranquility while being moments away from every thing Homer has to offer. Plenty of storage in your shed, and sunlight to bask in on your front lawn

5. 2025-05-30
   listed $268,000 Active 399-char remark

   Show marketing remark (399 chars)

   PRICE DROP!! and OWNER FINANCE available case-by-case basis. A historic log cottage right in the beautiful town of Homer, Alaska- own a piece of history and charm with this property; a year round stream at the back of the property offers a feeling of tranquility while being moments away from every thing Homer has to offer. Plenty of storage in your shed, and sunlight to bask in on your front lawn

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AK · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $578 · $48/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,598 · $133/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,020/yr (+$85/mo · 176.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone D · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,162
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,323
• − Property taxes: −$578
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,933
• − Management: −$1,933
• − Depreciation: −$6,400
• Taxable loss: −$105
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$25
• After-tax cash flow: $3,591/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kenai Peninsula Borough School District
• NCES district ID: 0200390
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $60,704
• Composite: 36.71/100
• National rank: #4594
• State rank: #8 of 21 in AK

Livability — Homer

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #9
• US rank: #2900

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute F Cost of living D- Crime B+ Employment C Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Homer, AK
• Population (ZIP): 11,557

Population outlook (Kenai Peninsula County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 63,736 people
• By 2030: 66,260 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 70,449 · +10.5%
• By 2050: 74,414 · +16.8%
• By 2075: 87,508 · +37.3%
• By 2100: 95,360 · +49.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Two or more races 10% Native American 6% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 5% Italian 4% Slovak 4%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 4% Spanish 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kenai Peninsula

• 2016 margin: R (+15.2) · D 37.7% · R 52.9% · Other 9.4%
• All cycles: 2016: R+15.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -65.25%
• Current HPI: 204.3313
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-17.9% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Price Changed $220,000 AKMLS
• 2026-04-25 Relisted — AKMLS
• 2026-04-25 Price Changed $240,000 AKMLS
• 2025-06-17 Price Changed $247,000 AKMLS
• 2025-05-30 Listed $268,000 AKMLS

Property tax history

-2.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $578 · +5.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.