15124 French Dr N · Hugo, MN 55038

$285,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,982 sqft · Townhouse public records · 4 Days on market

Built 2007 1,525 sqft lot Est $412k · 31% under $375/mo HOA · 14% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +11.9/30.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful Townhouse in the desirable Waters Edge association. New flooring, move in ready. Huge master BR. Large kit, open main floor. convenient location w/ easy freeway access. Enjoy the amenities including: clubhouse, pool, exercise room, & much more!

Key facts

• $375 HOA
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2007

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $285k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-74 ($-888/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $272k (4.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $276k (3.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $272k (4.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.1% in Hugo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#314 in MN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• White Bear Lake School District (suburban): math 45% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #83 of 301 in MN (top 28%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Matoska International (math 45% / reading 54%, grade D, #423 of 857 statewide, top 55%, 554 students, 24% FRL); Central Middle (math 41% / reading 55%, grade C-, #90 of 258 statewide, top 35%, 1,020 students, 24% FRL); White Bear South Campus Senior (math 37%, 1,111 students, 26% FRL) — zoned schools at 25% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 278 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,405 units permitted in Washington County in 2024 (121 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Washington County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $178k; list at $285k implies a 60% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $271,935 (4.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.98%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.11%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $412,256
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4530 N Empire Dr	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,740 (-12%)	14mo	$362,500	$208	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-50,678
• Equity at exit: $42,494

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-49,325
• Equity at exit: $24,642

Cash invested: $79,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55038

• Home prices YoY: -31.6%
• Active inventory: 278
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,755 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,495
• Tax from tax record: −$262 /mo · $3,148/yr
• Insurance: −$119
• HOA: −$375
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$579
• Net cashflow: $-74

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,849

Max offer price $271,935

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $87	-5% $7	+0% $-74	+5% $-155	+10% $-235
Rent	-10% $-292	-5% $-183	+0% $-74	+5% $35	+10% $144
Rate	-1.0pp $70	-0.5pp $-1	base $-74	+0.5pp $-148	+1.0pp $-223

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,250
• Closing costs: $8,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15119 Fanning Dr N Hugo, MN	4.0	3.0	1982	$2,750	$1.39	4d	1	0.03mi
4631 Rosemary Way Hugo, MN	3.0	1.0–2.0	963	$2,800	$2.91	0d	1	0.64mi
14891 Generation Ave N Hugo, MN	2.0	2.0	2100	$2,197	$1.05	45d	1	0.97mi
15865 Goodview Ave N Unit K Hugo, MN	3.0	2.0	1450	$2,650	$1.83	26d	1	1.07mi
15891 Goodview Ave N Unit E Hugo, MN	3.0	2.0	1450	$2,650	$1.83	19d	1	1.07mi
15865 Goodview Ave N Unit H Hugo, MN	2.0	2.0	1280	$2,400	$1.88	45d	1	1.07mi
15891 Goodview Ave N Unit H Hugo, MN	2.0	2.0	1280	$2,400	$1.88	19d	1	1.07mi
15853 Goodview Ave N Unit K Hugo, MN	3.0	2.0	1450	$2,650	$1.83	0d	1	1.07mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $375 · $4,500/yr
• Likely covers: waterpool

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-04-21
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-17
   listed $285,000 Active
3. 2026-04-07
   historical $285,000
4. 2025-05-08
   status Pending
5. 2025-05-08
   historical
6. 2025-04-30
   historical Contingent - Inspection
7. 2025-04-14
   price $289,900
8. 2025-03-12
   listed $299,900 Active
9. 2025-03-06
   historical
10. 2015-06-11
    soldstatus $178,500 Sold 258-char remark

    Show marketing remark (258 chars)

    Beautiful Townhouse in the desirable Waters Edge association. New flooring, move in ready. Huge master BR. Large kit, open main floor. convenient location w/ easy freeway access. Enjoy the amenities including: clubhouse, pool, exercise room, & much more!

11. 2015-06-11
    soldstatus $178,500

    Show marketing remark (258 chars)

    Beautiful Townhouse in the desirable Waters Edge association. New flooring, move in ready. Huge master BR. Large kit, open main floor. convenient location w/ easy freeway access. Enjoy the amenities including: clubhouse, pool, exercise room, & much more!

12. 2015-05-01
    status Pending 258-char remark

    Show marketing remark (258 chars)

    Beautiful Townhouse in the desirable Waters Edge association. New flooring, move in ready. Huge master BR. Large kit, open main floor. convenient location w/ easy freeway access. Enjoy the amenities including: clubhouse, pool, exercise room, & much more!

13. 2015-04-29
    historical Contingent - Inspection 258-char remark

    Show marketing remark (258 chars)

    Beautiful Townhouse in the desirable Waters Edge association. New flooring, move in ready. Huge master BR. Large kit, open main floor. convenient location w/ easy freeway access. Enjoy the amenities including: clubhouse, pool, exercise room, & much more!

14. 2015-04-21
    price $178,500 258-char remark

    Show marketing remark (258 chars)

    Beautiful Townhouse in the desirable Waters Edge association. New flooring, move in ready. Huge master BR. Large kit, open main floor. convenient location w/ easy freeway access. Enjoy the amenities including: clubhouse, pool, exercise room, & much more!

15. 2015-03-28
    price $180,000 258-char remark

    Show marketing remark (258 chars)

    Beautiful Townhouse in the desirable Waters Edge association. New flooring, move in ready. Huge master BR. Large kit, open main floor. convenient location w/ easy freeway access. Enjoy the amenities including: clubhouse, pool, exercise room, & much more!

16. 2015-03-17
    listed $184,900 Active 258-char remark

    Show marketing remark (258 chars)

    Beautiful Townhouse in the desirable Waters Edge association. New flooring, move in ready. Huge master BR. Large kit, open main floor. convenient location w/ easy freeway access. Enjoy the amenities including: clubhouse, pool, exercise room, & much more!

17. 2008-03-28
    soldstatus $176,535
18. 2008-03-03
    historical
19. 2008-02-19
    listed $178,535

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,148 · $262/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,170 · $264/mo
• Expected delta: +$22/yr (+$2/mo · 0.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,064
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,964
• − Property taxes: −$3,148
• − Insurance: −$1,425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,645
• − Management: −$2,645
• − HOA: −$4,500
• − Depreciation: −$8,291
• Taxable loss: −$5,555
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,333
• After-tax cash flow: $446/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: White Bear Lake School District
• NCES district ID: 2742360
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $73,051
• Composite: 45.78/100
• National rank: #2564
• State rank: #83 of 301 in MN

Livability — Hugo

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #314
• US rank: #7032

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hugo, MN
• County: Washington County · 235,613 people
• City population: 25,061
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 25,061
• Household income: $130,931
• Rent vs Own: 8.6% rent · 91.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 222.0

Population outlook (Washington County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 278,554 people
• By 2030: 290,465 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 310,014 · +11.3%
• By 2050: 324,118 · +16.4%
• By 2075: 362,697 · +30.2%
• By 2100: 381,491 · +37.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Asian 4% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 3%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 14% Lithuanian 7% Romanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 2% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Washington

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+8.9) · D 53.5% · R 44.6% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.6pp toward D · 2008: 4.3pp · 2024: 8.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+8.9 2020: D+9.2 2016: D+1.9 2012: D+0.8 2008: D+4.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -103.33%
• Current HPI: 223.6524
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+59.6% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-17 Listed $285,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-07 Coming Soon $285,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-08 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-08 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-30 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-14 Price Changed $289,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-12 Listed $299,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-06 Coming Soon — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-06-11 Sold (Public Records) $178,500 Public Records
• 2015-06-11 Sold (MLS) $178,500 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-05-01 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-04-29 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-04-21 Price Changed $178,500 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-03-28 Price Changed $180,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-03-17 Listed $184,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-03-28 Sold (MLS) $176,535 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-03-03 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-02-19 Listed $178,535 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+4.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,148 · -3.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.