3205 Illinois St · Baytown, TX 77520

$299,000

4 bd · 4.0 ba · 2,448 sqft · MultiFamily · 188 Days on market

Built 1928 Fair condition 6,500 sqft lot $122/sqft · 6% above area Est $283k · 6% over ↓ 28% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.4/30.0
• DSCR +8.4/10.0
• 1% rule +6.6/10.0
• ARV discount +4.9/15.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 4 units. confirmed

Listing remarks MLS

Fourplex just minutes away from the EXXON- Mobile plant. There is currently one unit occupied other three units are vacant and do need work after tenants vacated. Convenient location close to freeway.

Key facts

• 6,500 sq ft lot
• Built 1928
• Listed 188 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4 × 1-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $299k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $619 ($7k/yr) — positive. Per door: $155/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $299k).
• Recommended offer: $263k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.0% vs local median 4.2% in Baytown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#412 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, employment D+, crime F.
• Goose Creek CISD (urban): math 37% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #473 of 826 in TX (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.3%/yr); 271 active listings in the ZIP; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,483/mo this rent would consume 77% of the median local household income ($54k/yr) (locally 1559% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 188 days — a 12% lower offer ($263k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1928 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $263,120 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 188 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
3. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
4. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
5. Built in 1928 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
6. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
7. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
8. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
9. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
10. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
11. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
12. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
13. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.04%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.82%
• DSCR: 1.44
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $282,678
• List price: $299,000
• Delta: 5.77%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.3% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.82×
• Total profit: $-14,805
• Equity at exit: $44,582

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.18×
• Total profit: $15,003
• Equity at exit: $25,852

Cash invested: $83,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77520

• Rents YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 271
• Price-to-rent: 28.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,483 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,568
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$374 /mo · $4,485/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$731
• Net cashflow: $619

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,700

Max offer price $299,000

Occupancy floor 77%

4-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 4× units	1	1	$3,484
Total (4 units)			$3,483

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,750
• Closing costs: $8,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-05-19
   status Pending 200-char remark

   Show marketing remark (200 chars)

   Fourplex just minutes away from the EXXON- Mobile plant. There is currently one unit occupied other three units are vacant and do need work after tenants vacated. Convenient location close to freeway.

2. 2026-02-20
   price $299,000 200-char remark

   Show marketing remark (200 chars)

   Fourplex just minutes away from the EXXON- Mobile plant. There is currently one unit occupied other three units are vacant and do need work after tenants vacated. Convenient location close to freeway.

3. 2025-11-12
   listed $329,000 Active 200-char remark

   Show marketing remark (200 chars)

   Fourplex just minutes away from the EXXON- Mobile plant. There is currently one unit occupied other three units are vacant and do need work after tenants vacated. Convenient location close to freeway.

4. 2025-09-30
   historical
5. 2025-07-08
   listed
6. 2024-09-28
   price $349,000
7. 2024-07-02
   listed $365,000 Active
8. 2024-07-01
   historical
9. 2024-02-03
   price $379,000
10. 2023-09-14
    price $384,000
11. 2023-09-07
    listed $389,000 Active
12. 2023-05-05
    historical
13. 2023-03-02
    price $389,000
14. 2022-09-15
    price $399,000
15. 2022-09-08
    price $410,000
16. 2022-05-05
    listed $415,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (shaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $41,796
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,749
• − Property taxes: −$4,485
• − Insurance: −$2,292
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,344
• − Management: −$3,344
• − Depreciation: −$8,698
• Taxable income: $2,884
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$692
• After-tax cash flow: $6,733/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Fair 40/100 Extensive rehab

This fourplex requires extensive renovations to bring it up to modern standards, with a focus on kitchens, bathrooms, and structural repairs. Improvements will significantly enhance both resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Major kitchen — No kitchen visible, cannot assess
• Major bathrooms — No bathrooms visible, cannot assess
• Major roof — No roof visible, cannot assess
• Major exterior — No exterior visible, cannot assess
• Major windows — No windows visible, cannot assess
• Major HVAC/mechanicals — No HVAC/mechanicals visible, cannot assess
• Major landscaping/curb appeal — No landscaping/curb appeal visible, cannot assess

Value-add opportunities

• Both paint walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both install kitchen and bathrooms — Modern kitchens and bathrooms increase both resale and rental value
• Both repair roof and exterior — Structural repairs improve safety and curb appeal
• Both install windows — New windows improve energy efficiency and curb appeal
• Both install HVAC/mechanicals — Upgraded HVAC improves comfort and energy efficiency
• Both landscape and curb appeal — Landscaping enhances curb appeal and property value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
kitchen · No kitchen visible, cannot assess	Major	$15,000–50,000
bathrooms · No bathrooms visible, cannot assess	Major	$15,000–50,000
roof · No roof visible, cannot assess	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior · No exterior visible, cannot assess	Major	$15,000–50,000
windows · No windows visible, cannot assess	Major	$15,000–50,000
HVAC/mechanicals · No HVAC/mechanicals visible, cannot assess	Major	$15,000–50,000
landscaping/curb appeal · No landscaping/curb appeal visible, cannot assess	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 7 items		$105,000–350,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both paint walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both install kitchen and bathrooms — Modern kitchens and bathrooms increase both resale and rental value ↑
• Both repair roof and exterior — Structural repairs improve safety and curb appeal ↑
• Both install windows — New windows improve energy efficiency and curb appeal ↑
• Both install HVAC/mechanicals — Upgraded HVAC improves comfort and energy efficiency ↑
• Both landscape and curb appeal — Landscaping enhances curb appeal and property value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Goose Creek CISD
• NCES district ID: 4821150
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $52,468
• Composite: 31.84/100
• National rank: #5877
• State rank: #473 of 826 in TX

Livability — Baytown

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #412
• US rank: #8494

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Baytown, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 135,579
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 36,355
• Household income: $54,278
• Rent vs Own: 47.8% rent · 52.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1559.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% White 30% Two or more races 19% Black 10% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 48%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 55% English-only · Spanish 43% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -143.36%
• Current HPI: 262.066
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.30%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-28.0% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-02-20 Price Changed $299,000 HARMLS
• 2025-11-12 Listed $329,000 HARMLS
• 2025-09-30 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-07-08 Listed for Rent — HARMLS
• 2024-09-28 Price Changed $349,000 HARMLS
• 2024-07-02 Listed $365,000 HARMLS
• 2024-07-01 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-02-03 Price Changed $379,000 HARMLS
• 2023-09-14 Price Changed $384,000 HARMLS
• 2023-09-07 Listed $389,000 HARMLS
• 2023-05-05 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2023-03-02 Price Changed $389,000 HARMLS
• 2022-09-15 Price Changed $399,000 HARMLS
• 2022-09-08 Price Changed $410,000 HARMLS
• 2022-05-05 Listed $415,000 HARMLS